Contemplating Alex Bregman, his new contract, and Marcus Semien
Alex Bregman signed with the Boston Red Sox…over the weekend, I think? Maybe Friday?
Anyway, he joined the Red Sox on a three year deal with opt outs after each of the first two years, at a $40 million salary per year, with $20 million each year deferred at no interest. This makes the present value of the deal around $32 million per year (Cots has the CBT value at $31,704,416 per year).
It remains to be seen where Bregman will play in 2025 for Boston. Currently Rafael Devers is at third base (and under contract through the 2033 season) for Boston, and so Bregman is expected to work at second base this spring. However, Kristian Campbell, Boston’s fourth round pick in 2023 and a consensus top five prospect in MLB, is also a second baseman, and went from high-A to AA to AAA in 2024. If Campbell breaks camp with the Red Sox, then Bregman (a good defensive third baseman) would replace Devers (a bad defensive third baseman) at the hot corner, with Devers moving to DH or maybe first base or a corner outfield spot, perhaps.*
* Or perhaps not. When I was close to done with this post, I saw that the Red Sox beats are reporting that Devers is adamant that he is going to play third base this season, and that he is not going to DH. So that’s fun.
But Bregman possibly being a second baseman this year had me thinking about him in relation to Marcus Semien. Semien is, like Bregman, a well rounded player who provides value by being a quality offensive contributor who is a very good defender at a position on the more challenging side of the defensive spectrum.* They are also considered to bring a lot of value in the clubhouse, each being seen as a smart, savvy player who is a quality teammate.
* Second base, third base, and center field are generally grouped together on the defensive spectrum and with positional adjustments. B-R currently has them going 2B-CF-3B at +3/+2.5/+2 on the positional adjustments. As a point of reference, shortstop is +7 runs, LF/RF at -7 runs.
Semien, after his age 30 season, coming off a one year pillow contract where he tore shit up for the Blue Jays, signed a 7 year, $175 million deal with the Rangers. That deal was widely viewed as an overpay at the time, and currently has four years and $98 million remaining.
Bregman, after his age 30 season, signed what has a very good possibility of being a one year pillow contract* that guarantees him $96 million over three years if he doesn’t opt out. He reportedly was offered a six year, $171 million deal by the Detroit Tigers,** but passed on it for the shorter-term deal that gives him the opportunity to re-enter the market.
* My guess is that, if things go well, Bregman and the BoSox will do a long-term extension that will either moot the opt out or which will be signed after Bregman opts out, much like Matt Chapman and the Giants did in September.
** I am assuming for the sake of this post that the Detroit deal did not include significant deferrals at low/no interest that would depress the overall present value of the contract, but I don’t know if that is the case or not. More and more often, we are seeing deals reported with big numbers that get nerfed down due to below-market-rate deferrals. Bregman’s deal, for example, was originally reported as three years, $120 million, but the deferrals reduce that value by about 20%.
Bregman being guaranteed almost as much by the Tigers as Semien got from the Rangers, on a deal that would have been one year less, suggests some parity between the two and how they were evaluated. In looking at their respective careers through age 30, you see markedly different career arcs. Bregman had his MVP-caliber seasons in 2018-19 at ages 24-25 with huge offensive seasons, and otherwise has been a solid 4-5 win player throughout his career, including since 2019. Semien, on the other hand, was around league average offensively until his age 28 season while putting up 3.5-4.5 win seasons from 2016-18, then put up MVP caliber seasons in 2019 and 2021 at ages 28 and 30, with a disappointing season in the COVID year sandwiched in between.
Bregman, you could argue, was more consistent throughout his career. Semien, you could argue, was great more recently than Bregman was, and didn’t have his best offensive seasons tainted by trash can banging. There are arguments for and against each in determining whom you would rather have over the next 6-7 years, if they are at the same price point.
The other interesting thing to me, though, is comparing the two of them right now. I mentioned in the comments of links post this morning that Joe Posnanski has Semien as the #1 second baseman in MLB right now. Pos has Bregman as the #6 third baseman right now, acknowledging that MLB Network has Bregman significantly higher (at #3 among third baseman, which is the same place they have Marcus Semien among second baseman).
But I think the question of, who would you rather have right now, Marcus Semien or Alex Bregman, is an interesting one to contemplate. Over the past three seasons (which excludes Bregman’s injury-shortened and Semien’s MVP level 2021 seasons), Bregman has slashed .260/.349/.449, good for a 124 OPS+ and a 13.6 bWAR. Semien has slashed .254/.320/.433, good for a 111 OPS+ an a 17.0 bWAR.*
* If you prefer fWAR to bWAR the difference shrinks, with Semien at 14.9 fWAR to Bregman’s 14.0 fWAR.
Why does Semien have the bWAR edge in that stretch, when they play similarly adjusted positions and Bregman has been the better hitter? Part of it is because Bregman has played a few fewer games than Semien, since Semien never sits. But the majority of the difference is due to Semien being graded out as elite defensively at second base (+37 in DRS, which B-R uses, and +30 in FRV, which Fangraphs uses) while Bregman has been +7/+9, respectively, as well as Semien having almost a 20 run advantage in baserunning the past three seasons.
In 2024, Bregman had a 4.1 bWAR and fWAR, Semien a 4.1 bWAR and 4.2 fWAR. If you look at the 2025 projections, ZiPS has Bregman at a 3.3 fWAR on the Astros’ projections in January, but a 3.9 fWAR on his player page. Though the ZiPS Depth Chart version has him at 3.6, so who knows. ZiPS has Semien at 4.4 on Semien’s player page, 4.1 on the Rangers’ projections page from November. PECOTA has Bregman at a 3.6 WARP for 2025, Semien at 3.7.
So taking a step back, you have a pair of players who have provided a similar amount of value the past three seasons, and who are projected to provide a similar amount of value in 2025. One would expect Semien to decline more quickly than Bregman going forward, given he is three years older, but interestingly, the ZiPS projections for 2026 and 2027 don’t reflect that, with Semien continuing to project a shade better than Bregman those two years.
One of those players just got guaranteed $96 million over three years, but with opt-outs, so the team has less upside with the deal despite having just as much downside, and the team that signed him gave up a draft pick for the privilege.
The other player is guaranteed $98 million over four years, with no opt outs.
All things considered, the Semien contract, which has been great for the Rangers in the first three years of the deal, looks solid over the final four years of the deal. Despite what some fans have suggested, if for whatever reason the Rangers were to deal Semien right now, they wouldn’t have to kick in money in the deal. What is left on Semien’s contract, during the years we expected the deal to be onerous, is less than would he could most likely get on the open market right now.