Japanese wunderkind pitcher Roki Sasaki is coming to America
Pitcher Roki Sasaki of the Chiba Lotte Marines of the Japanese League is being posted, per multiple reports. That means the righthander, who turned 23 just last week, will be eligible to sign with a major league team, and will be pitching in the major leagues in 2025.
In case you aren’t familiar with Sasaki, Eric Longenhagen wrote about him in August over at Fangraphs, in a piece anticipating that he might be posted this offseason and looking at his potential market. Sasaki is described by Longenhagen as someone who has been the “Lebron James of Japanese baseball since his junior year” of high school, and he’s considered to be one of the best pitchers under the age of 25 in the world.
Because Sasaki is still only 23, he’s subject to MLB’s international free agent bonus pool restrictions. That means that, unlike Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a $325 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers this past offseason, but like Shohei Ohtani when Ohtani came to the United States seven years ago, Sasaki can only sign a minor league deal with a signing bonus equal to whatever amount a team has available to spend in that signing period.*
* And no, teams can’t agree to sign him to a minor league deal and then a month into the season give him $300 million, or otherwise have any handshake or other deals to get around the bonus pool restrictions. We went over all this already when Ohtani was posted.
The consensus among the baseball cognoscenti is that the Los Angeles Dodgers are the heavy favorite to sign Sasaki. That would give them (along with Yamamoto and Ohtani) a triumvirate of Japanese stars, and would only enhance their ongoing marketing bonanza in Japan. Longenhagen’s article notes that the Dodgers are among the teams with the most money still available in this current signing period, as well.
Longenhagen also notes, however, that the posting could be delayed so that Sasaki could be signed in next year’s signing period, which begins January 15. And intriguingly, he includes the Texas Rangers as one of the handful of teams with the most money available and uncommitted for the 2025 international signing period.*
* Theoretically, everyone has the same amount available, because no one has been signed. In reality, teams make verbal agreements with top prospects several years before they are eligible to sign. Thus, the reference to “uncommitted” amounts available.
Evan Grant writes that you should not count the Rangers out when it comes to the Sasaki signing sweepstakes. And I have no doubt the Rangers will make an aggressive play for Sasaki. So it is something to keep an eye on over the coming weeks.