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Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

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Two offseasons of aggressive spending paid off as handsomely as possible for the Rangers, who captured the franchise’s first World Series championship.  With a repeat now possible, will the ownership and the front office continue to break the bank?

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

2024 financial commitments: $171.25MM (if Leclerc’s option is exercised)
Total future commitments: $636.083MM (if Leclerc’s option is exercised)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projected 2024 salaries via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

Arguably baseball’s best lineup will return almost fully intact in 2024.  Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Jung, Jonah Heim, Leody Taveras, and Evan Carter form a tremendous core of everyday players, and this entire group is controlled through at least the 2026 season.  Considering that Seager spent six weeks on the injured list and that the younger players have higher ceilings, it is quite possible that the Rangers will be even better offensively, which is a scary proposition for opposing pitchers.

And, the lineup potential doesn’t stop there.  Ezequiel Duran had some ups and downs during his sophomore season, but Duran finished 2023 with above-average (107 wRC+) offense and an ability to at least passably handle multiple defensive positions, making him a valuable utility piece going forward.  Top prospect Wyatt Langford already advanced to Triple-A within a few months of being the fourth overall pick of the 2023 draft, so a Major League debut seems in the cards for next season.  Sam Huff and Josh H. Smith were well-regarded prospects in their own right, and still have breakout potential if they can find more regular playing time.

It adds up to such a bevy of options that the Rangers could decide to simply part ways with some of their veteran free agents.  Robbie Grossman and Travis Jankowski performed capably well sharing time with Duran in left field last season, but Carter’s emergence means that that revolving door in left field has been now been closed.  Grossman’s ability to mash left-handed pitching makes him a nice compliment to the left-handed hitting Carter, though Texas might see Duran as a suitable in-house candidate as a part-time right-handed bat.

From Grossman’s own perspective, he might prefer joining a team with a clearer path to regular playing time, even if the idea of re-upping with the World Series champs has some natural appeal.  If Grossman does leave, Jankowski comes at a cheaper price tag, and is more of a traditional backup outfielder given Jankowski’s ability to play all three positions on the grass.  That said, Carter and Garcia can also fill in as a center fielder when Taveras is out of the lineup, and Langford’s impending arrival could give Carter more of a role in center field anyway down the road.

Signing some kind of veteran bench option seems like a logical move for Texas, whether that veteran is a familiar face like Grossman or Jankowski, or a newcomer eager to play for a contender.  As tremendous as Carter looked throughout September and during the playoffs, some regression is probably inevitable once opposing pitchers get a book on the outfield phenom.  Injuries and a lack of performance made Brad Miller a non-factor for most of 2023, so the Rangers could look to add a Miller-type of player that can provide versatility in the infield as well as the outfield.

The backup catching role will also have to be resolved.  Huff’s glovework is still a question mark, so Texas could opt to re-sign Austin Hedges as a pure defensive specialist behind everyday starter Heim.  Or, the Rangers could look to entirely bring the band back together by re-signing Mitch Garver and reinstalling him into the primary DH/backup catcher role.

This usage worked so well in 2023 that reuniting with Garver is surely tempting for the Rangers.  It is possible Garver might even accept the qualifying offer if issued, as he’d land a $20.325MM payday for the 2024 season and return to a comfortable environment.  On the other hand, Garver is also the top free agent catcher on the market, so a longer-term contract elsewhere would certainly seem to be on the table.  Garver’s injury history might preclude him from being a true full-time catcher, though he could pursue a DH/catcher role similar to the one he held in Texas.

Qualifying offers must be issued by November 6, and that short timeframe adds another wrinkle to how the Rangers might approach Garver.  If Garver did receive a QO and he accepted, that would essentially solidify the Rangers’ plans for the DH spot heading into 2024.  On the one hand, that’s a bit of important winter business handled early….except that this particular offseason happens to have a certain generational talent available who needs a designated hitter role.

Would anyone be surprised if Shohei Ohtani was wearing a Rangers uniform on Opening Day?  Given how owners Ray Davis and Bob Simpson have boosted the club’s payroll over the last two seasons, another splurge to land Ohtani can’t be ruled out, even if Ohtani’s contract tops the $500MM mark.  Texas has been on Ohtani’s radar before, as due to the Rangers’ and Cubs’ association with Yu Darvish, Texas and Chicago were the only two non-West Coast teams on Ohtani’s short list when he first came to North American baseball during the 2017-18 offseason.

Fast forward to the 2023-24 offseason, and it isn’t known if geography is necessarily a factor in Ohtani’s eventual decision.  But, the Rangers can financially compete with anyone and they just won a championship, so one would imagine they’d be an attractive destination given Ohtani’s stated desire to win.  Technically, signing Ohtani might be a luxury for a team that already might be facing a slight logjam of too many up-and-coming players for too few positions, yet Ohtani is such a special player that Texas would be happy to figure out a talent surplus after the fact.

Since the Rangers exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2023, they’d have to give up two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus pool money in order to sign Ohtani or any other free agent who rejects a qualifying offer.  This probably isn’t going to be a huge roadblock to the Rangers’ offseason plans, nor is the club likely to shy away from crossing the $237MM tax threshold again in 2024.  The Rangers were willing to give up multiple draft picks to sign qualified free agents like Seager, Semien, Jacob deGrom, and Nathan Eovaldi over the last two offseasons, but now facing the steeper tax penalty, it is possible the team ramps down slightly and only pursues maybe one QO-rejecting free agent.

For as much money as Texas has spent in the last two years, GM Chris Young is still working with a good deal of financial flexibility.  Seager, Semien, and deGrom alone take up a hefty chunk of the payroll, but they are also the only three players signed beyond the 2025 season.  This gives Young some freedom to look into other long-term deals, whether that translates as possible extensions (there’s merit to locking up Jung or Carter right now, for instance) or spending more money to solidify the pitching staff.

Though the Rangers just won a championship with more than a few question marks on the pitching front, the rotation and bullpen figure to be the major offseason target areas.  DeGrom is aiming to return in August 2024 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last June, but with that rehab situation still very fluid, the Rangers can count on a starting staff of Eovaldi, Max Scherzer, Jon Gray, and Dane Dunning for the time being.

Cody Bradford and Owen White represent in-house depth options, and Andrew Heaney could just remain as the fifth starter if he doesn’t exercise his opt-out clause.  Heaney would be leaving $13MM on the table if he did choose to opt out, and MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently explored the pros and cons Heaney and his representatives are undoubtedly weighing as they consider the left-hander’s next step.

Even if Heaney did remain, the Rangers are still going to be looking to add pitching.  Dunning or Heaney both pitched well enough to deserve rotation spots under normal circumstances, yet either could be used in the bullpen or in some type of unofficial sixth starter role.  Having extra pitching on hand is a logical move for depth purposes, especially considering Eovaldi’s past injury history, and the 39-year-old Scherzer battling through a number of nagging injuries in 2023.

Jordan Montgomery is the obvious name on the Rangers’ pitching wishlist, as the southpaw was such a key figure in the club’s title run after being acquired from the Cardinals at the trade deadline.  Montgomery’s performance only elevated his free agent price tag, and since he is ineligible for the qualifying offer, he is all the more attractive to any teams wary of surrendering draft picks.  Texas will be vying against several other teams for Montgomery’s services, but again, the Rangers have the money, the championship pedigree, and some built-in familiarity with Montgomery that might make them the favorite in this bidding war.

Ohtani’s Tommy John surgery removes him as a pitching option for 2024, yet he could slide into an open spot in 2025 since Scherzer, Heaney, and possibly Eovaldi could all be free agents next offseason.  Looking at other top pitchers on the market, the Rangers have been scouting Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and the likes of Blake Snell, Aaron Nola, or Sonny Gray could all be targets, even if those three will undoubtedly come with QO-attached draft penalties attached.  Local product Clayton Kershaw has been on the Rangers’ radar for the last two offseasons, but the news that Kershaw will be out until at least next summer due to shoulder surgery will complicate a pursuit, beyond whether or not Kershaw would leave the Dodgers.

Though the Rangers’ relief corps was more stable during the playoffs, the bullpen’s volatility during the regular season almost cost Texas a postseason berth altogether.  Jose Leclerc was the steadiest member of the pen, and his club option is a lock to be exercised as Leclerc re-established himself as the closer throughout the playoffs.  Will Smith acted as closer for much of 2023 and the Rangers will likely try to re-sign the veteran, both due to his steady results and the unofficial league rule that Smith’s team always wins the World Series.

Josh Sborz and Brock Burke will return, and Dunning, Heaney, or Bradford could again be part of the relief mix depending on what happens in the rotation.  Re-signing Martin Perez might be another option on this front, if Perez is willing to pitch primarily in a relief role or as a swingman at best.  But it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Texas bring in three or four more relief options, ranging from low-cost veterans on minor league deals or the very top of the market.

As such, Josh Hader figures to be part of the offseason conversation in Arlington.  Signing the free agent market’s top closer would instantly make the bullpen a lot more formidable, and solve perhaps the only weak link on the roster.  Hader is another free agent who will reject a qualifying offer, which is another consideration for the Rangers to make as they also weigh whether or not it is wiser to splurge on Hader, or to devote their resources to multiple relievers.  The latter strategy carries its own set of risks, as the reliever class has already started to thin out since the Braves re-signed Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson before they hit the open market.

For all of this focus on free agency, we shouldn’t at all ignore the possibility that the Rangers might use the trade market for upgrades, especially after Young’s bold deadline moves to land Montgomery and Scherzer.  The aforementioned semi-surplus of position players could be solved in part by moving some of the younger talent in a trade.  It is fair to say that Carter and Langford are more than untouchable, yet it wouldn’t be a shock to see Duran, Smith, or Huff dealt.  Dipping further into the minors, infield prospects like Justin Foscue or longer-term prospects like Sebastian Walcott or Cameron Cauley could be trade chips, as Seager, Semien, and Jung look to have the infield locked down for the foreseeable future.

All manner of possibilities are open to the Rangers this winter, and Young’s front office can also operate with a bit of unique freedom in the sense that they’re already triumphed.  With one trophy already secured and so much talent in place, the next challenge for Young will be figuring out how to set up the 2023 champions into a potential dynasty.

In conjunction with this post, Mark Polishuk held a Rangers-centric live chat with MLBTR readers.  Click here to read the transcript.