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October Stalwart Could Become Underrated Free Agent Signing

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Nathan Eovaldi might not be the best free-agent pitcher available this offseason. However, he is expected to be one of the most sought-after arms. The right-hander became a free agent earlier this offseason when he opted out of the one-year, $20 million left on his contract with the Texas Rangers.

That decision indicated that Eovaldi expects to land a larger deal in free agency. He will be 35 on Opening Day, and this could represent the last opportunity for him to sign a big contract. For various reasons, it looks as if the two-time All-Star will do just that.

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Nathan Eovaldi Free Agent Profile

Multiple younger, top-end starting pitchers are available this winter. However, they will likely require a large nine-figure free agent contract or a trade package filled with top prospects. Teams looking to boost their pitching more economically will take a look at Eovaldi.

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Proven Commodity in High-Pressure Environments

In 2024, Eovaldi posted a 3.80 ERA (104 ERA+) in 170 2/3 innings across 29 starts. His production featured elite Chase (32.2), Walk (6.0), and Groundball (48.9) percentages. The Texas native also ranked in the 71st percentile with an average fastball velocity of 95.4 mph and struck out batters at a slightly above league-average rate of 23.9 percent.

Additionally, Eovaldi cemented himself as a legend in Rangers history for a heroic performance in the 2023 postseason.  The veteran went 5-0 in six starts, producing a  2.98 ERA in 36 2/3 innings with 41 strikeouts. This led to Texas winning its first World Series title in franchise history. This performance came a few years after Eovaldi dominated in a similar fashion with the Boston Red Sox during the team’s 2018 World Series run.

On top of his postseason prowess, Eovaldi developed into a leader and rotation stalwart during his five years with the Red Sox. Boston has a reputation for being a tough place to play due to high expectations and pressure from the media and fans. Not every player can succeed in this type of environment, but Eovaldi proved to be a player who thrives when the lights are the brightest. Notably, Boston has reportedly expressed interest in a reunion with him this winter. This trait will certainly attract multiple World Series contenders to pursue Eovaldi as a free agent.

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Lower Overall Acquisition Cost

Multiple free-agent pitchers will land contracts worth nine figures over several years this offseason. That said, only a few teams can afford to hand out a deal that large. Even fewer teams are willing to do so.

Additionally, Eovaldi was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer this offseason since he received one two winters ago. This means that a team will not have to give up a draft pick when signing him.

So, Eovaldi represents a quality free-agent pitcher who won’t cost a team nine figures or a draft pick. A team, like Texas before the 2023 season, could look to sign Eovaldi plus one or two more arms at a combined lower price than what a top-end arm might make this winter. Considering Eovaldi has produced an ERA+ of 111 over the past seven seasons, plus a solid track record of postseason success, there certainly is value and logic to this strategy.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts Eovaldi to sign a two-year, $44 million contract while Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicts a two-year, $42 million deal.

Potential Red Flag

One wart on Eovaldi’s profile is the injury bug. The right-hander has dealt with a variety of ailments throughout his career, including two Tommy John surgeries. More recently, Eovaldi spent two different stints on the injured list last season due to side and groin issues.

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Teams are increasingly risk-averse and don’t want to spend significant assets on pitchers due to their high injury risk. The odds of an injury occurring only increase as a pitcher ages. This might scare off some teams that would rather make a smaller commitment to a less proven but still talented arm.

However, most teams pursuing Eovaldi likely want him for a World Series run, not necessarily the regular season. It’s doubtful that he will be expected to start 33 games or toss 200 innings. But, if he can dominate in October, then the injury risk will be worth it. Just ask the Rangers and view how interested the team is in bringing him back.

 

Photo Credit: © John Jones-Imagn Images

The post October Stalwart Could Become Underrated Free Agent Signing appeared first on Last Word On Baseball.