The 2025 projected standings and playoff odds are out at Fangraphs
Fangraphs’ projected standings for the 2025 MLB season, along with the 2025 playoff odds, have been released this morning. And as was the case with the PECOTA projected standings from Baseball Prospectus that came out earlier this week, Fangraphs is optimistic about the Texas Rangers’ chances in 2025.
Fangraphs projects the Rangers as being the second best team in the American League this season, just like Baseball Prospectus, and like BP, the team ahead of the Rangers is New York. The Rangers also have the second best playoff odds of any American League team, at 58.2%.
Fangraphs does project the Rangers with slightly fewer wins than BP does — Fangraphs has the Rangers at 84.8 projected wins, compared to a shade over 89.1 wins by BP — with there being much more expected parity in the A.L. than in the BP projections. Even the Yankees, who have the best playoff odds in the American League, are at just 71.9%, and there are four teams besides the Rangers projected as having at least a 50% chance of making the playoffs, as well as four others with at least a 41.8% chance.
In contrast, in the National League, Fangraphs has the Dodgers with a 98.2% chance of making the playoffs and a whopping 24.3% chance of winning the World Series, while Atlanta is at 93.0% and 14.9%, respectively.
In comparing and contrasting the Fangraphs and PECOTA projections, the thing that jumps out at me is the spread in the projections for Boston. While Fangraphs has Boston with the third best odds of making the playoffs in the American League, at over 50%, PECOTA has them at just 13% and ahead of only the ChiSox, A’s and Angels. Fangraphs also gives the A’s a surprising 11.5% chance of making the playoffs — better than the Angels — while PECOTA has them at 1.5%.