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Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott ended last season as a second-team All-Pro, and only behind Lamar Jackson in MVP voting. Another season in head coach Mike McCarthy’s system, a season of growth from young, playmaking pass catchers like CeeDee Lamb, Jalen Tolbert, and Jake Ferguson, and another year of work with Brandin Cooks would supposedly set Prescott up for another MVP-level year.
Seven games in, and the quarterback is having possibly the worst season of his career. Could it be a play-calling issue? Is it because of Lamb missing training camp? A weaker offensive line? Injuries to surrounding players? Or even just regression from the quarterback? The answer is yes; it’s a mix of all these factors.
The offense doesn’t have the personnel they did last year. All-Pro Left tackle Tyron Smith is gone to the New York Jets, and rookie Tyler Guyton hasn’t approached that play in Year 1. All-Pro right guard Zack Martin hasn’t been the same level of player all are accustomed to, and that combination has led Prescott to be hit the most times in his career through seven games.
WR Brandon Cooks has been injured, too, and these issues may have prompted McCarthy to be more conservative in his playing calling, leading to a less efficient passing attack.
The team isn’t helping their QB by running the ball well, or creating easy throws. Dallas has the highest tight-window throw percentage in the NFL at 22.5%, and no other qualifying quarterback is even at 20%. His best option in the tight window is Tolbert, who has seven receptions on 12 targets for 127 and 1 TD. All other pass-catchers combined for 11 catches on 47 targets for 137 yards and two interceptions. Jake Ferguson is down nearly 20 percent in his targets, has more than two yards less per reception, is at the lowest success rate of his career & has scored zero touchdowns.
The rushing attack is even worse.
The team is last in the league in rushing yards per game at 74.1. They have the second-worst explosive run percentage at 6.6%, are last in total explosive runs with 10, and have no runs over 15 yards all season. The team has only averaged 3.5 yards per rush or lower in a single season, 1960, over 60 years ago.
While these are valid reasons for a QB to play worse, Prescott still has to make quality decisions, and he hasn’t done that at a level the team is accustomed to. He has 16 turnover-worthy plays this season through seven games. His career high in a season was 21, so he is on pace to shatter that. Regardless of his surroundings, Prescott must improve his decision-making. If the team is going to play this poorly around him, there’s an urgent need for him to play even better than he ever has to elevate them.
You can find Mike Crum on Twitter @cdpiglet or YouTube on the Across the Cowboys Podcast