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It was a poor year for many Dallas Cowboys last season. Dak Prescott, Micah Parsons, Malik Hooker, Trevon Diggs and DaRon Bland all had seasons to forget. Injuries struck the entire team, the playoffs were laughably unrealistic as early as November, and the coaching staff was subsequently purged. Yet, one player who may have had the most disappointing season of all has largely flown under the radar. That man is fourth-year tight end Jake Ferguson.
One year after posting his first Pro Bowl season, Ferguson crashed back to earth, posting just 59 receptions for 494 tards and zero touchdowns. His statistical output wasn’t just disappointing but the product he put on film appeared to regress as well.
Up until 2024, Ferguson was steadily improving across the board. He was behind a bit as a blocker but showed the potential and desire to develop into a well-rounded high-end tight end at some point in the near future. That trajectory took a hit last season when he posted arguably his worst year as a professional. It wasn’t just bad but by some very well-respected metrics, it was record-breaking bad.
Aaron Schatz, the mastermind behind Football Outsiders, measures players in DYAR. He applies this grading method to players across the NFL, identifying the highest performers and exposing the lowest performers. The Cowboys have seen standouts such as Emmitt Smith in 1995 make the high performers list in the past but this year they had the unfortunate privilege of having a low performer. Technically, the lowest performer at TE Schatz has ever recorded.
DYAR stands for Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. While the familiar DVOA is a good measure of success, it doesn’t take into account having players perform at a league average level. DYAR compares a player’s DVOA to a general replacement level player. Like DVOA, this is adjusted for schedule strength and uses totals like yards, first downs, touchdowns and turnovers to report value. As a pass catcher his stats are partially based on players around him, namely the quarterbacks, so the entire blame doesn’t fall at Ferguson’s feet.
Unlike his three dropped balls and four fumbles.
Ferguson’s numbers understandably declined each quarterback rung the Cowboys descended to. His DVOA by QB went from -24% under Prescott, to -51% under Cooper Rush, to -121% under Trey Lance. Yet it’s important to point out plenty of pass catchers deal with injured QBs and they still find a way to make it work. Ferguson clearly deserves a hefty share of blame for his play.
Entering his contract year in 2025, it’s important for Ferguson to, at the very least, bounce back to his 20223 level of play. It may not be enough to result in a contract extension, but it would rekindle a career that took a very unexpected step back last season.
Luckily for Ferguson, there aren’t many challengers to get in the way of bouncing back in 2025.
Luke Schoonmaker has struggled to be the run blocker the Cowboys hoped he’d be when they drafted in the second round two seasons ago. He came on strong as a pass catcher but until he can clean up his blocking, he’s likely to stay in that TE2 role behind Ferguson.
Brevyn Spann-Ford had a solid, yet unspectacular, rookie season. The 6-foot-7, 270-pound behemoth thrived as a run blocker and could very well become one of the best in the NFL given his size and strength. But his receiving skills need work making him largely one-dimensional, and as such, a long shot to replace Ferguson next season.
Unless the Cowboys add a TE to mix in free agency or early in the draft, Ferguson’s spot at the top of the depth chart is secure. Ferguson is a fan favorite and an important cog in Brian Schottenheimer’s offensive machine so everyone will be in his corner this season. How he performs in 2025 will go a long way in determining his future in Dallas.