The Cowboys are possibly playing for their season on Sunday night.
For all of the wrong reasons, there are a lot of things that have made the first eight weeks of the 2024 Dallas Cowboys season feel so much different than most in recent history. Yet in a division that refuses to seemingly ever have a runaway favorite, the Cowboys are likely going to stay relevant in the NFC East as the defending champions for at least a few more weeks. Just a year ago, the Cowboys won the division with a 12-5 record, and were 4-2 going into a week seven bye. Currently, they are just a game off this pace at 3-3 off of another week seven bye, but talks of repeating as division winners again have been replaced by much louder noise about Mike McCarthy being a “lame duck” coach or Jerry Jones needing to finally face the reality of his shortcomings as the general manager.
All of this paired with a three-game losing streak to this Sunday night’s opponent in the San Francisco 49ers has the Cowboys facing quite the uphill challenge in saving the season. In this week-to-week league though, they draw a 49ers team that will be playing their first game without WR Brandon Aiyuk following an ACL tear, while other offensive weapons George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are questionable coming into the game. Everything in the Cowboys’ recent history with the 49ers points to needing these types of breaks to be in the game. The core of Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are looking for the type of win that could build confidence and change the direction of this season, they’ll and be doing so as a depleted team struggling to hang their hat on anything they do well enough to beat just about any opponent right now.
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If the way the 2024 Cowboys have looked so lifeless and out of games at times is a surprise to fans, perhaps it’s because of how a 42-10 loss at the 49ers in week five a year ago was followed up by winning seven of their next eight and looking like one of the best teams in the NFC through much of the midseason. This current Cowboys team has three such losses to try and erase the memory of with better play in their remaining 11 games, a tall task that adds even more significance to starting this turnaround by beating not just anyone but the Kyle Shanahan 49ers which ended two playoff seasons for the Cowboys in two of the last three seasons.
The Cowboys fell behind 21-7 at halftime in last year’s loss at the 49ers, also a Sunday Night Football meeting, and could not respond as a team unfamiliar with that position. A one-dimensional Cowboys’ passing offense could get nothing going, and the 49ers added 21 more points to just one Brandon Aubrey field goal in the second half to win by 32.
Sound familiar?
Other factors like early down inefficiency and lack of big-play ability also plagued the Cowboys in last year’s loss. After falling behind 7-0 following the game’s opening drive, the Cowboys went three and out with a one-yard run on first down followed by two incomplete passes. San Francisco doubled the lead in one play after Fred Warner got a third-down sack later in the second quarter with a George Kittle touchdown. Down 21-7, the Cowboys would get two more chances to draw closer in the final 2:36 of the half, but their longest play of either possession was a five-yard completion to Jake Ferguson.
The Cowboys longest play of the game would have to wait until the opening drive of the second half, with CeeDee Lamb going for 29 yards on one of his five catches. These 29 yards made up over half of Lamb’s entire output for the night, finishing with 49 yards total. Dallas’ drive would stall just short of the red zone and settle for a field goal, another all too familiar sight for this year’s offense in year two of McCarthy dialing up the plays.
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Up until this tenuous point in that season, the Cowboys had a 40-0 win on opening night at the Giants under their belt, as well as a 30-10 romp against the Jets and 38-3 beatdown of the Patriots at home. They were a team adept at getting the lead, adding to it by continuing to make big plays, and generating turnovers on defense thanks to their advantage. This somewhat narrow type of game script needed for the Cowboys to win worked wonders for most of the regular season, but it was the 49ers as the first team to flip it on its head and plant the first seed of doubt that Dallas may not be a true playoff contender.
This was the Cowboys’ second loss of the 2023 season, their other being a surprising week three loss at the Arizona Cardinals, where missing three starting offensive linemen was too much to overcome. Yet again, a lack of continuity and inexperience up front in protection of Prescott is another current issue the Cowboys face at 3-3 right now.
It took until three months later, but the Green Bay Packers with a similar scheme on both sides of the ball to the 49ers, absolutely proved that the Cowboys weren’t ready for the intensity of postseason football with a 48-32 Wild Card round win from AT&T Stadium. They took the lead, ran the ball against Dan Quinn’s defense, and never looked back. Dallas has not won at home since that game, seeing teams like the Saints, Ravens, and Lions copy this very game plan and execute it to perfection more and more each time – the Cowboys’ most recent loss to the Lions being the worst of the entire Jones era at 47 to 9.
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The Cowboys were not active on the trade market either buying or selling over the bye, did not make any coaching staff shake ups, and hardly have the depth due to injuries to consider a slew of real lineup changes. The only hope for this team looking tangibly better off the bye on Sunday night will be finally showing they’ve learned the lesson of not needing games to stick to a tight and neat script to be at least competitive, a lesson they could have realized as early as the last time they were embarrassed by the 49ers. Even if doing so in a loss, it is just about the only thing the Cowboys can use this game for to build momentum for the future both short and long term.
However, winning at the 49ers with an opponent that brings up so many historic rivalry memories on both sides would earn Dallas the slightest bit of positivity going into a new week as they prepare for the Atlanta Falcons. To say the least, it would be an incredibly welcome sight for all parties involved with the team back over .500, heading into another winnable road game having notched their fourth win away from home in the much tougher environment that is Santa Clara.
Nobody is trying to oversell this game as the sole moment the Cowboys can reassert themselves as legitimate contenders. However, what is abundantly clear while Dallas was off in week seven is the need for more divisions with real intrigue around the NFL right now. In the AFC, the Bills, Chiefs, and Texans all feel far superior to any of their rivals, leaving just the AFC North with much intrigue as the 5-2 Ravens have not been able to separate from the Steelers, and Bengals remain in the hunt at 3-4.
In the NFC, the South is a two team race between the Buccaneers and Falcons, but Atlanta will have a chance to sweep the season series against Tampa Bay on Sunday and gain control. The Seahawks lead the NFC West at the moment, but it feels like a tenuous position as they are just keeping the seat warm until banged up teams like the 49ers or Rams get healthy enough to claim it. Seattle has a home loss to the Giants on their record as well as to the 49ers. The NFC North is the breath of fresh air in these scenarios, with every team having at least four wins and the Lions, Vikings, and Packers all deadlocked with five. If we are to believe the NFC East is in line with the other divisions and not like the North though, it would take accepting the 5-2 Commanders under rookie QB Jayden Daniels as the far and away favorite that are worlds better than both the Cowboys and Eagles.
With a 17-7 record against the NFC East under McCarthy and still five such games to play for Dallas having already beaten New York on a Thursday night, the Cowboys are right to not be throwing in this towel yet. The time to discuss how this season was supposed to be about proving their legitimacy outside of division play will still come, possibly as early as the conclusion of Sunday night should the 49ers win by a big margin again. At the same time, a Cowboys win in this spot with so many young players in the lineup right now is exactly what they need.
Whatever the purpose of this season becomes, be it continuing to evaluate these young players through a rebuild or making a push for the playoffs, either has to be done with a healthy enough culture and standard in place for players and coaches to continue putting their best foot forward. A win or close loss against the 49ers may be the only outcomes that ensure this is possible, as another blowout loss – especially off a bye – could be untenable.
As mentioned, the Cowboys haven’t shown a lot of identity this season as far as what they do best that other teams struggle to take away. Their lack of physicality has been most glaring in those recent losses to the 49ers, as has their inability to defend the run. A San Francisco team operating below full strength will still test Dallas in these areas. Believing anything will change off the bye may very well just be the final dose of “hope-ium” on this tumultuous season, but for now the next four quarter chapter of Cowboys-49ers will be written with McCarthy’s team looking to avoid the franchise’s first four game losing streak to SF since the Cowboys lost six straight from 1981-90, including the 1981 NFC Championship Game on “The Catch”.