Another Dallas Cowboys loss on Sunday would send things into an even further tailspin. Here are our predictions for it all.
The Cowboys are staring over the edge into the abyss as they head to Atlanta with a 3-4 record. A third straight loss could very well be the final nail in the coffin on this season, and they’ll have to fight for a win while still missing some of their best players. Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland are still out, and Trevon Diggs is a game-time decision as well.
That makes things even more difficult against a Falcons team that’s really been hitting their stride. Even so, Atlanta is only favored by three-points coming into this one. Can the Cowboys pull it off? Let’s see what our writers think.
When Atlanta has the ball
Blitz, baby, blitz
The Falcons offense is soaring right now, and Kirk Cousins has been especially great after taking the first couple weeks to settle in with his new offense. When breaking down his play, there are very few weaknesses right now, but there is one area where the quarterback has struggled: the blitz.
Cousins is in the top 10 in quarterback efficiency rankings when you account for almost any type of game scenario except for when he faces a blitz. There, he drops down to 20th in EPA/dropback, 23rd in completion percentage, and 24th in passer rating. Teams have rarely blitzed Cousins this year, although his former head coaching and pseudo-nemesis Mike Zimmer is currently blitzing offenses at the 10th-highest rate in the league. Zimmer should crank that up to 11 this week and see how Cousins handles it; after all, he’s looked invincible in every other way this year.
When Dallas has the ball
Air it out
The Falcons defense has struggled all year, particularly against the pass. There’s a few reasons for this, but it starts with them being dead last in both pressure rate and sacks. Atlanta doesn’t get to the quarterback, but they’re also giving up open receivers in their zone-heavy coverage scheme.
That’s good news for a Cowboys passing attack that’s struggled to create separation against man coverage. Dak Prescott has been better against zone than man coverage this year, and giving him time to sit back and find the open man makes things even easier (at least in theory). Prescott should be able to excel against this secondary.
Now onto the predictions from your BTB writers…
Tom Ryle (4-3):
This is simple for me. The Cowboys no longer seem to know how to win. Nothing is really working for them, and there’s no sign they have any idea how to address their multiple problems.
I don’t see any of that changing and figure this will see the Falcons win something like 27-19.
Matt Holleran (3-4):
It’s hard to have confidence in anything about the Cowboys right now. Offense, defense, and special teams all have their own set of issues and things that have gone wrong. The Cowboys face a beatable opponent this week in the Falcons, but there’s just no way to feel confident enough about then as a team to pick them. I see Atlanta having a big day on the ground and both offenses putting up plenty of points. The Cowboys show some fight but can’t get it done in the end.
Give me the Falcons, 30-24.
Jess Haynie (5-2):
Bijan Robinson hasn’t had over 150 total yards since Week 2 of his rookie season and has never scored more than two touchdowns in a game. I think both of those numbers get beaten as his versatile skill sets makes life easy for Atlanta against a crippled Dallas defense. If the Cowboys’ offense keeps sputtering the way it has been, the Falcons will be able to lean into Robinson just like the Saints did with Alvin Kamara.
Falcons 34, Cowboys 20.
Brandon Loree (4-3)
The Cowboys are walking into Sunday’s game with a barren cupboard at cornerback. DaRon Bland has already been ruled out and Trevon Diggs batted a calf injury all week, uncertain for Sunday. Caelen Carson should return to action but being away for so long and being a rookie could be a rough matchup against a Falcons offense hitting its stride.
Atlanta’s offense under offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, use motion at the snap at the third-highest clip in the league (41%) per NFL Pro. Motion can really hurt the lack of death at corner for a team that has surrendered the most EPA per play versus motion at the snap in the NFL.
For that reason, I have to pick the Falcons in this one to win by two touchdowns, 35-21.
Mike Poland (3-4):
The Atlanta defense ranks dead-last in total sacks; they produce very little pressure. They also rank dead-last in completion percentage allowed at a whopping 73%. The Falcons defense also allows the fifth-most passing touchdowns and has the third-worst third-down conversion rate allowed. What does all this mean? It’s a team that fails to stop the pass, something the Cowboys offense isn’t doing badly at.
Cowboys win 31-21.
Dana Bartholomew (5-2):
This should be a game where the Dak and these receivers are able to find success in the passing game. However, Kirk Cousins is having a really good season and the Atlanta offense might be too much for this injured Dallas defense to handle. Especially since it looks like players like Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland are still not ready to return.
I’m going with the Falcons 28-21.
Brian Martin (4-3):
Starting with the Falcons this week, the Cowboys have a tough four-game stretch ahead of them. They probably need to win at least two of these games to keep their playoff hopes alive, making this Week 9 matchup almost a must-win for them.
Atlanta is a very much a beatable team, but Dallas will need to cut down the turnovers and play much better all-around to earn the “W”. Unfortunately, I believe Kirk Cousins and Company will be too much for them to handle.
Give me the Falcons 27-24 in a close one.
RJ Ochoa (6-1):
Let me be very clear in saying that I do not believe in this Dallas Cowboys team, but I do think they are capable of surprising us every now and then. This team is broken in a number of ways but I find it important to note that they have not lost 3 games in a row in four years. Atlanta has potential don’t get me wrong, but they also seem to thrive on playing in the middle of chaos and opening the door for opponents to steal one. I think the Cowboys walk through that door this week.
Give me Dallas, 19-17.
David Howman (4-3):
I have zero confidence in the Cowboys right now. Players appear to be quitting, Dak Prescott doesn’t look right, and Jerry Jones isn’t passing up any opportunity to further undermine his lame duck head coach. All of that is a recipe for some bad football.
That said, the Falcons have been shaky at home, where all three of their losses have come this year. Not to mention that their two home wins have been by a combined eight points, with one coming in overtime. I think this ends up being closer than it has any business being, but the Falcons win thanks to a last second game winning drive from Kirk Cousins.
Falcons win, 28-27.