The Cowboys are sinking lower and lower
The Cowboys emerged from their bye week with plenty of energy and channeled it into a strong first half against the 49ers. The problem is that didn’t last, and before long they had earned yet another loss to the team they just can’t beat as of late.
The final score may have been close, but this loss reflected plenty of glaring problems for the Cowboys. As we cross the halfway point of the season, the advanced data is overwhelmingly suggesting that things are hitting rock bottom in Dallas.
The Cowboys took a step back in all three phases of the game and are objectively a bad football team right now. Even their special teams unit dropped out of first place for the first time all season, which had been their one real claim to fame this year.
Looking at the DAVE rankings, the Cowboys are overriding their lofty preseason expectations with how aggressively bad their actual performances have been. They remained fairly well positioned in DAVE prior to this week, so the drop here reflects just how bad things have gotten.
The EPA-based team tiers are even more harsh. Only the Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, and Browns are behind Dallas here. Notably, the Patriots just had their own head coach publicly label the team as soft. That’s the kind of company the Cowboys are keeping right now.
Comparing to the rest of the division makes for a depressing exercise. The Giants have pulled ahead, while the Eagles are gradually trending in the right direction and the Commanders are one of the best teams in the NFL right now. That’s a bitter pill to swallow.
Offense
In some respects, the offense took a step forward in this game. The connection between Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb certainly looked back to normal, and Jake Ferguson saw an uptick in touches despite not being able to do much with them.
The fact that Dallas figured out how to get their two best skill players more involved and still posted such an inefficient result, though, is a major red flag. That suggests that the things that are broken with this offense are simply not going away any time soon.
To quote Captain Obvious, Dak Prescott is playing some terrible football right now. His QBR ranks behind the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Andy Dalton, and even rookie Bo Nix, while his EPA/play is only barely ahead of both Daniel Jones and Anthony Richardson, the latter of whom was just benched.
It’s absolutely true that Prescott has been given little help this season, but you still have to expect more than this from a seasoned veteran who currently holds the title of highest paid player in the NFL. Prescott is not doing enough, and the team is hurting because of it.
Ironically, the offensive line is doing fine enough for this offense to get by. They’re just inside the top ten in both pressure rate and adjusted sack rate, though they took a step back in run blocking grades.
Still, this is a pass-first offense and an offensive line doing this well in pass protection should be thriving. They haven’t been perfect, but they’ve given Prescott more than enough time to set the team up for success.
Defense
This defense is bad, but can anyone be surprised? The Cowboys used an eight-man rotation on the defensive line that featured four players who weren’t even here at the start of training camp and another (Tyrus Wheat) who played one more defensive snap in this game than he did all of last year.
If there’s anything to vindicate Mike Zimmer and his coaching prowess, it’s the fact that Dallas remains in the top ten in pressure rate despite all these injuries. In fact, they moved up this week to eighth. Just wait until he gets Micah Parsons back.
Speaking of getting players back, DaRon Bland was activated from the injured reserve on Wednesday and it couldn’t have come at a better time. Amani Oruwariye has been serviceable for a guy who didn’t join the team until the end of preseason, but Dallas is not getting enough production from him right now.
Where the Cowboys are really struggling, though, is at safety. Namely, Donovan Wilson is having the worst year of his career, and he looked especially poor against the 49ers. Wilson was supposed to be an ideal fit in this defense, but he’s never looked more out of place. It might be time to give some of his snaps to Markquese Bell or Juanyeh Thomas.