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2024 NFLTR Top 100: 30-21

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Our 2024 NFLTR Top 100 Players series continues today with players 30-21.

Dak Prescott

This is the third year of the series giving our take on the league’s top 100 players, compiled rigorously using both traditional and advanced statistics, awards, positional value, career trajectory and a dash of intuition.

We’ll be rolling these out over the next couple of weeks to pass the time until training camp, so keep an eye out for the rest of the 2024 NFLTR Top 100!

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30: Rams QB Matthew Stafford

The Rams had a remarkable season in 2023 that defied tepid outside expectations, and Stafford was a huge part of that. The veteran shrugged off speculation about retirement and trades to guide the Rams to a playoff berth in what was supposed to be a rebuilding season.

The stats weren’t gaudy — Stafford threw for less than 4,000 yards, 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and had his lowest completion percentage since 2014. But the veteran was a stabilizing force who made big plays when he needed to. His 2.1 interception percentage was a big drop from his first two seasons in Los Angeles and was needed with a team with a thinner margin for error. His PFF grade of 88.2 was actually the highest of his career, and the service credited him with 37 “big-time throws” and a 6.3 BTT percentage. Those totals ranked third and second respectively among all quarterbacks. 

At 36 years old, Stafford’s mobility has diminished from what it was earlier in his career, and he was never a dual-threat quarterback to begin with. However, he remains one of the most creative and skilled playmaking quarterbacks in the league because of his arm talent and daring. Stafford’s pressure-to-sack percentage of 15.8 was the 11th-best in the league. And his fellow players, both teammates and just around the league, speak in awe of his highlight-reel throws. 

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsStafford is obviously closer to the end of his career than the beginning. While we’ve seen some quarterbacks play well into their 40s, others have hit the wall right around this time. But for the time being, Stafford remains one of the top quarterbacks in football and someone who gives the Rams a chance to stay relevant every year he’s under center. 

29: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott

There was a lot of hand-wringing about Prescott after his 2022 season when he tossed a league-leading 15 interceptions against just 23 touchdown passes. But in last year’s top 100 list where we had Prescott ranked right about in the same place, we explained why those numbers were probably a fluke and Prescott was a great candidate to bounce back statistically in 2023. 

That’s exactly what happened. Prescott led the NFL with 36 touchdown passes and finished second in MVP voting as Dallas won 12 games for the third consecutive season. Prescott finished with nine interceptions and his interception rate of 1.5 percent was less than half of what it was in 2022 (3.8 percent). It wasn’t necessarily a career year, as Prescott has finished with better numbers in most of the main statistical categories before. But he did finish with his highest-ever PFF grade and a career-high in PFF’s big-time throws. His 41 dimes were second in the league behind only Bills QB Josh Allen. 

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsIn 90 percent of the other media markets in the NFL, that would be enough to settle all questions about Prescott’s place in the hierarchy of NFL signal callers or status as a franchise quarterback. But things are different in Dallas and the high-profile playoff exits the past few seasons have not turned down the pressure on Prescott and the Cowboys. Now Prescott enters a potential walk year with massive leverage over the team and there’s a real chance he’s playing for another team in 2025. If the Cowboys aren’t willing to pay Prescott north of $60 million a year with record-setting guarantees, you can be sure other teams will. 

28: Texans LT Laremy Tunsil

Tunsil fought through a knee injury that bothered him most of the year and ended up sidelining him for three games to remain one of the top tackles in football, especially in pass protection. His 92 percent pass block win rate was 14th in the league on ESPN’s leaderboard. The veteran got got for five sacks in PFF’s charting, but his 97.5 pass blocking efficiency was still ninth in the league and his 96.8 efficiency on true pass sets was sixth. 

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsEntering his age-30 season, the injuries are worth keeping an eye on, particularly since Tunsil had to manage his knee all season. But we’ve seen tackles play deep into their 30s as long as they remain in relatively good health. If Tunsil can stay healthy, he should still have many years ahead of him. 

27: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce

Kelce’s streak of seven straight 1,000-yard seasons was snapped in 2023. The veteran missed it by only 16 yards and didn’t play in two games — Week 1 and Week 18. The first was due to a knee injury suffered in practice, the second was after a long season of getting beat up to recharge for the playoffs. A refreshed Kelce dominated with 355 yards and three touchdowns in four playoff games, including a second straight Super Bowl. Kelce will tell you he’ll make that trade every time. 

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsAll of this has led to some fears about Kelce starting to decline ahead of his 35th birthday in October. The injuries were a factor, as was the lack of other threats on offense to take attention away from Kelce. And yes, the future Hall of Fame tight end was less dynamic in 2023 than in previous seasons. But a hobbled and triple-teamed Kelce is still one of the league’s most dangerous pass catchers. 

Kelce was still No. 2 among all tight ends in receiving yards and third in receptions. Much of the chagrin over his 2023 performance centered around his dropoff in fantasy points and that can be explained by scoring only five touchdowns — which is understandable considering the top focus for opposing defenses in the red zone last year was taking away Kelce. Kansas City’s weapons last year were Kelce and a bunch of butter knives, and most teams preferred to take their chances with the butter knives. 

ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics are another interesting way to look at things, as they rely on player tracking data to answer questions like who generated the most separation or who was better than average at picking up yards after the catch. Kelce’s 2023 season was tied for the lowest of his career in overall score, per ESPN, and also his lowest career YAC score, which tracks with the injuries. However, Kelce’s open score of 72 was right in line with his career averages. More importantly, his overall score still was in the top 20 percent of all players, receivers and tight ends, and his open score was 16th-best. 

If Kelce can stay healthier in 2024 than he was in 2023, we could easily see another vintage year from the star tight end. 

26: 49ers TE George Kittle

The duel between Kittle and Kelce for the league’s top tight end over the past few seasons has been intense. Kelce probably had the edge as a pure receiving talent up until this year, though obviously Kittle is no slouch in that department. He topped 1,000 yards receiving for the third time in his career and led all tight ends last season. His overall score of 82 in ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics was the sixth-best mark of any player and Kittle was at a 69 or higher in all three components; open score, catch score and YAC score. 

Where Kittle gains ground in his case for top tight end is in the run game. He’s a ferocious blocker and unlike some tight ends he takes as much zest for this aspect of the game as he does catching touchdowns. In San Francisco’s offense especially, Kittle’s contributions as a blocker are just as important as what he brings in the passing game and a huge part of the 49ers’ success the past several years. 

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThat well-roundedness is ultimately why Kittle’s case for top tight end is so compelling. Tight ends have to do a lot and Kittle does all of it at an extremely high level. 

25: Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II

The 2023 season was the worst of Surtain’s three years as a pro. He had just one interception after having four as a rookie in 2021 and after making first-team AP All-Pro in 2022, Surtain saw his performance fall off last season. Per Pro Football Reference, Surtain allowed a career-high 7.3 yards per target and let up 54 catches on 91 targets for 660 yards and three touchdowns. The sub-60 percent completion percentage allowed is still a quality number but Surtain had better numbers in each of his prior two seasons. 

Surtain still has elite athleticism and coverage skills, and there are reasons to think the 24-year-old still has elite football ahead of him. He’s hit double-digit pass breakups in all three seasons and didn’t allow a touchdown in man coverage last season. 

24: Giants DT Dexter Lawrence

Lawrence had one of the most remarkable seasons we’ve seen from a defensive tackle in 2022, racking up 7.5 sacks as a 6-4, 340-pound nose tackle. Lawrence’s sack total dipped to just 4.5 in 2023 but he was no less disruptive or unique as a player.

In fact, this is where some of the more advanced pass-rushing stats beyond sacks can be more telling. Per PFF, Lawrence had 65 total pressures compared to 70 in 2022. However, that was on 446 pass rush snaps compared to 577 the year before. On a snap-by-snap basis, Lawrence was more dangerous in 2023, and that was borne out by his 8.4 pass-rush productivity score and 20.2 percent win rate. ESPN also charted him with a 19 percent pass rush win rate in 2023, up from 17 percent the year before. 

All of these numbers are near the top for all defensive tackles in the league last year. And of course, Lawrence is as good against the run as you’d expect for a 6-4, 340-pound nose tackle. He’s a rare player and has a legitimate case as the top defensive tackle in football for the unique things he brings to the table. 

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23: Jets DT Quinnen Williams

Last year, Williams took a major stride forward and had a huge season with 12 sacks, nearly equaling his production from the previous two seasons combined. He earned votes for Defensive Player of the Year and was named first-team All-Pro. 

Williams’ sack total dipped back down to 5.5 in 2023, but the veteran actually took another big step forward with his game in 2023. PFF credited Williams with 52 pressures in 2022, which was significantly better than the 34 and 39 he had the two previous years. In 2023, Williams had 70 total pressures, nearly a 50 percent jump in production. He had the second-best pass-rush productivity (a PFF stat that combines total disruption relative to total pass rush opportunities) of any defensive tackle last year. He did all of this despite being double-teamed on 70 percent of his snaps, one of the highest double-team rates of any interior defender in football. 

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThe veteran also made strides in the run game. Williams earned the highest run defense grade of his career from PFF and set a new career best with 42 stops. He made plays all over the field, too, notching a safety, an interception, a forced fumble, one recovery and three pass deflections. He might be behind Chiefs DT Chris Jones still, but Williams is neck-and-neck with fellow New York DT Lawrence for the top of the next tier and future face of the defensive tackle position. 

22: Eagles WR A.J. Brown

Brown is a great example of how situation can impact receivers, especially their stats like catches, yards and touchdowns. Brown has been largely the same outstanding player throughout his entire career, but since being traded by the Titans to Philadelphia, he’s exploded statistically with over 3,000 yards receiving combined over the past two years. Brown had 185 catches and 24 touchdowns his first three seasons. In the past two, he has 194 and 18. 

2023 was also the best year yet for Brown in a number of categories. He topped 100 catches for the first time and set a new career best with a catch rate of 67 percent. His overall score of 95 in ESPN’s receiver tracking metrics was No. 2 in the NFL, and it was also the best mark of his career. 

Brown just doesn’t have any holes in his game. He’s a strong route runner and adept at beating press man coverage with his power and speed. His open score of 82 tied for fifth-best in the NFL and his 56 targets against man coverage tied for second-best behind only Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill. His catch score of 90 was No. 4 in the NFL and his 39 forced missed tackles over the past two seasons are inside the top five at the position. 

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21: Lions RT Penei Sewell

Sewell was one of several players who took another big leap from good to great in 2023 and fueled Detroit’s run to the NFC championship. The former top-ten pick finished the year as PFF’s top-graded tackle with a mark above 90, fueled by an astronomical 95.1 run block grade. Offensive linemen aren’t supposed to generate a lot of highlight plays, but Sewell is the exception to the rule. 

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.jsThe big step forward for Sewell came as a pass blocker, however. He was beaten for just one sack all season, according to PFF, and while his 25 total pressures were only marginally better than the 28 he had last year, his efficiency was notably better. Sewell had a 98.3 pass block efficiency and 97.2 efficiency rating in true pass sets, per PFF. Those ranked second and third among all tackles. 

Sewell also finished sixth in ESPN’s pass block win rate with a 93 percent mark. The distinction between left and right tackle matters less than it used to because of how many quality pass rushers there are around the league, so Sewell was doing this against quality competition. The end result was a rare but well-earned extension after just three years of Sewell’s contract as a former first-rounder, giving him $28 million per year and making him the NFL’s highest-paid tackle, left or right. 

The post 2024 NFLTR Top 100: 30-21 appeared first on NFLTradeRumors.co.