The Commodores have pulled off two big upsets in the last three games and hope to close the month with another.
The No. 5 Texas Longhorns still have all of this season’s goals ahead of them as they travel to Nashville to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores. The Longhorns’ first road game of their SEC lives looked like it might be one of the easier games of the season, but the Commodores and quarterback Diego Pavia have reversed the normal paradigm for the school this season. Vandy opened the month of October with a road win over the Alabama Crimson Tide and would love to give the home crowd a great ending to the month with a win over Texas.
Coach Clark Lea and the Commodores have a relatively simple solution to closing the talent gap — limit your opponents’ number of offensive chances to limit their ability to score. Three of their seven games this year have held opponents to 14 points or less, including the last two, wins over the Kentucky Wildcats and the Ball State Cardinals.
Ball control
It’s football in its most classic form — control the ball and control the game, which makes sense for a team with a talent disadvantage. Vanderbilt currently sits No. 11 nationally in time of possession, averaging 33 minutes of offense per game. Obviously, if you limit opponents’ time of possession, you limit the number of plays they run, with the Commodores ranking No. 24 nationally in opponent plays per game. Lea and company have been next-level in their recent big-game hunting over the last three games, limiting Alabama, Kentucky, and Ball State to just 52.7 plays per game, a full 11 plays lower than their season average.
This requires opponents to make the most of every possession, which some have, especially early in the season. The Commodores rank No. 91 in defensive points per drive, giving up 2.51 points every time opponents have the ball. The Longhorns cannot afford another slow start, needing to maximize every possession and live up to their 3.24 points per drive average in Nashville.
Third-down conversions
The easiest way to win the time of possession battle is to convert on third-down opportunities whenever they arrive, which has once again been key to Vanderbilt’s success on both sides of the ball. The Commodores almost refuse to let opponents stop them on the money down, thanks in large part to the playmaking ability of dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia. They currently sit No. 7 in the country in third-down conversions, converting on more than 52 percent of their attempts on the year. That number is floated by their wildly successful outings against Alabama and Kentucky, converting on 12-of-18 and 8-of-13 attempts, respectively. Their two losses on the year were two of their worst performances on third downs, going 4-of-14 against Missouri and 6-of-13 in a puzzling loss to Georgia State.
On the year, Vandy ranks No. 87 in third-down defense, but has been incredible on the money down during this three-game win streak kicked off by the upset win over Alabama. The Commodores held their last three opponents to a combined 9-of-25 on third downs, with the Crimson Tide converting just three in the contest. Famously, Texas was abysmal in the loss to Georgia on third downs, converting on just two of their 14 attempts, going an entire half without converting one.
Limit turnovers
The other key component to ball control and the upset recipe is stealing possessions via turnover, something that the Commodores have done well, not just in the most recent upsets but in the season overall. Vandy is No. 18 in the country in turnovers, with six interceptions and two fumbles, for a plus-6 margin on the year. Four of their eight turnovers came in the upset wins over the Crimson Tide and Wildcats, with one interception and one fumble recovery each.
The Longhorns sit No. 49 in the country in turnover margin, a ranking that is buoyed by their ability to force opponents into turnovers. Texas sits in the top 10 of interceptions in the country with 10 on the year, while ranking No. 69 in interceptions thrown with six on the year. That being said, the one uncharacteristic loss for the Commodores this year at the hands of Georgia State is also one of two games with a turnover on the year, when Pavia was strip-sacked on the opening drive, setting up a Panther’s scoring drive.