The reignited rivalry has higher stakes than ever.
The No. 3 Texas Longhorns have one last game standing between them and their goals for the season, a rivalry matchup more than a decade in the making. The Longhorns head to College Station and Kyle Field for their fourth road game of the year to take on the Texas A&M Aggies.
This rivalry game always has high stakes, with bragging rights on the line for the next 12 months. Because this year it’s also a play-in game for the SEC Championship game, which would be a first for either team, the stakes couldn’t possibly be higher.
Resist the emotional wave
While there are a lot of statistical categories to look at, this is likely the biggest key of the game. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian talks about “playing with emotion, but not emotional” and this game is one of the most emblematic of that axiom. Texas has only played three road games this year, two of which came in some of the unfriendliest confines known to college football; Michigan in Ann Arbor and Arkansas in Fayetteville.
Neither of those matchups has the emotional resonance nor the stakes of this game in the final week of the regular season. The closest emotional wave is likely the Cotton Bowl against the Oklahoma Sooners, but the team they faced in Dallas is not quite as stout as the one Texas will play in College Station. With a capacity of nearly 103,000 fans, every seat will be filled and loud for the rivalry matchup 13 years in the making. Add to that a berth in the SEC Championship game, managing emotions will be key.
Can Texas run the ball?
Perhaps the biggest indicator of success for Texas A&M is how well their defense plays the run and their opponents’ ability to win at the line of scrimmage. In their eight wins, the Aggies held opponents to an average of 95 rushing yards; in four of those wins they held their opponents to less than 100 yards. The high -water mark in a win is 125 yards against Mississippi State, coincidentally that is the highest an opponent has scored against A&M in a losing effort. In their four losses, that number jumps to 217 yards, an average that includes two of their last three contents, giving up 286 to South Carolina and 168 to Auburn.
Despite some of the frustrations for the Longhorns on the ground, they have been relatively consistent in moving the ball, if they can hold onto it. In two of the last three games, the Longhorns have gone over 200 yards on the ground, rushing for 210 against Arkansas and 250 against Kentucky. Perhaps the most frustrating stretch for Texas is the back-to-back weeks against Georgia and Vanderbilt, a loss and a near loss, which were also their two worst rushing performances of the year.
Take care of the football
The two best units on the field Saturday are easily the defenses, both of which excel at turning opponents over via interception. Texas jumped to 17 on the year with two against Kentucky, good enough for No. 2 in the country, while Texas A&M sits at No. 24 with 12. That interception total includes three games with three interceptions, and all three came against SEC opponents — Florida, Arkansas, and LSU. While that number puts the Aggies plus-four in turnover margin on the year, they are minus-two over the last five games, throwing at least one interception in four of the last five contests.
Texas floated around even on the turnover margin early in the year, but has excelled in SEC play, forcing 13 turnovers in the last five contests, 10 of which came via interception. The Horns have also struggled to hold onto the ball all year with their nine fumbles lost and at least one regular season game left, which sets them up to have their worst year since 2016.