Win and you’re in, Texas.
Survive and advance is the name of the game. I’ve been preaching that mantra since the No. 3 Texas Longhorns suffered their first loss of the season last month against the Georgia Bulldogs.
With the way the college football landscape is setup this year with the expansion of the College Football Playoffs to 12 teams and the lack of a truly dominant team in the SEC, it felt inevitable that other teams at the top of the rankings and conference standings would stumble.
And that if Texas just put their heads down and stay the course that they would find their way right back in the mix for both the SEC Championship game and the CFP.
Following a nail biter against Vanderbilt, a blowout of Florida, and a close win against Arkansas, Texas finds itself two wins away from making a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship game in their first year in the conference. At this point in the season, they don’t have to be pretty, but they do have to be W’s. Style points are not key any more — you are trying to play for seeding and most importantly a first-round bye in the playoffs.
Another mantra of mine since the loss to the Bulldogs is that the mission that you set at the start of the season is still the mission now. Meaning that nothing changes and you simply refocus and get back to winning. If you take care of your business from here on out you can still get to where you want to be. At the beginning of this season, I never had Texas running the table, so I wasn’t blindsided when they took a loss in the middle of the year, especially against a team with the defensive quality of Georgia.
A lot of fans were behaving like the season was over and that the sky was falling. Adversity is bound to strike over the course of a long football season. Especially now with the schedule being so drawn out with a playoff in the mix, how you respond to that adversity ultimately is going to define where you end up come the postseason.
At this point, who is left on the schedule and who you have beaten isn’t really important. Head coach Steve Sarkisian knows that and has certainly heard the critics and talking heads talking about Texas’ resume to date.
Sarkisian addressed criticisms of their resume and schedule on Thursday.
“Honestly, I don’t pay attention to that stuff. All I know is we play the teams that are in front of us and they’re good. I don’t know if people don’t think they’re good or not — that’s not for me to decide — we just try to play our best football that we can,” Sarkisian said.
Sarkisian continued talking about the team’s goals and it certainly sounds like he understands that the mission is still the mission:
“I’m not one to shy away from that kind of stuff. I think we all know what our goals are for the season — we want to be in Atlanta and in December, compete for an SEC championship, and we want to be playing January 20th. I don’t have to belabor the point. I don’t have to talk to it all the time with our guys. They know, and then once they know, we get focused on the task at hand, and that’s the next week’s game, and we’ll celebrate this one here getting home, and then it’s on to Kentucky,” Sarkisian said.
These seasons are marathons. And now with an SEC conference schedule to navigate, there are going to be plenty of slogs to go around and Sarkisian understands that you are going to have to gut them out and find ways to win. So far since the Georgia game, Texas has done just that.
Despite Ewers having an up-and-down day on Saturday, he made the play that ultimately iced the game and allowed the Longhorns to get into victory formation, converting a 4th and 2 by pulling a zone read and making the yard to gain. Both Sarkisian and Texas tight ends coach Jeff Banks were seen celebrating on the sideline shortly after, and Sarkisian expanded on that moment in his post-game press conference.
“Coach Banks and I both, we’ve been part of this conference now for some time when we were at Alabama and going on the road in this conference is not easy, especially when it’s a rivalry game, and the environment was what it was, and you get in hard-fought games. I think not to talk about them, but I think we look at Alabama, thinking all those years with Coach [Nick] Saban they just went and blew everybody out. You have to find a way to win the tough games, right? If not, that’s the difference between an 11-1 team and an 8-4 team, right? Because they didn’t win those tight games.”
Steve Sarkisian and Jeff Banks erupt on the sidelines after Quinn Ewers converts a keeper on 4th and 2 to ice the ballgame. pic.twitter.com/qECfDhBBFo
— CJ Vogel (@CJVogel_OTF) November 16, 2024
SEC Championship game and College Football Playoff scenarios
With two weeks left in the regular season, it is time to start looking at potential scenarios for the Longhorns when it comes to making it to Atlanta for the SEC championship game and a berth in the College Football Playoffs.
Texas beats Kentucky and Texas A&M
This is obviously the best-case scenario for Texas and it guarantees them a spot both in Atlanta and in the CFP. This would also effectively eliminate Texas A&M from both the conference championship game and the playoff picture. Can you imagine the scene in Austin and College Station if the Longhorns are able to kickstart the rivalry by knocking off the Aggies in Kyle Field with the stakes that high?
Texas loses to either Kentucky or Texas A&M
Despite Texas ending the season 10-2 in this scenario, two conference losses likely means they don’t make it to Atlanta. Georgia beating Tennessee on Saturday puts them right in the mix for the SEC Championship game and their win over Texas would come into play as a tiebreaker if the Horns end up with two conference losses. If Texas ends up with two losses, Tennessee’s final regular-season matchup against Vanderbilt becomes something to keep an eye on, since the Volunteers also have two SEC conference losses.
With two weeks remaining in the regular season, there are plenty of scenarios that could happen. Most likely, the tiebreaker process would come down to the fourth tiebreaker — cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents, which currently favors Alabama.
On top of tiebreaker scenarios within the SEC, you also now have to consider what another loss would do to Texas’ overall resume with the CFP committee. Is possible for a 10-2 Texas team to get in the playoff as an at-large bid? Sure. Is it guaranteed that will happen? I don’t think so, because you never know with the committee. Texas is a big draw at the gate and on television due to their brand, so there are plenty of reasons for the powers that be to want to put them in the playoff field, but it is best to not leave it in their hands in that kind of scenario.
Remember Sarkisian addressing the strength of schedule concerns after the release of the second College Football Playoff rankings?
Texas currently has the No. 38 strength of schedule, according to ESPN’s College Football Power Index, an unimpressive number, but also possesses the No. 5 strength of resume. The strength of schedule should receive a boost from playing the Aggies, the nation’s No. 14 team in FPI.
Texas loses to both Kentucky and Texas A&M
That would be the scene in Austin if that happened. Texas would be 9-3 to close out the season and it would very much feel like a failure of a season all things considered. This would almost certainly spell the end of any playoff aspirations.