With the Tigers moving into the AP Top 25 poll this week, the Horns face another ranked opponent in the brutal grind of conference play.
For the first time in 10 days, the Texas Longhorns are back at the Moody Center on Tuesday with the No. 22 Missouri Tigers in Austin with tip still set for 8 p.m. Central on SEC Network following wintery conditions on Monday night.
With a cold weather advisory issued for the area due to temperatures forecast to drop below freezing by game time, the school is advising fans planning to attend to allow ample time to get to the arena of the first matchup between the two programs since the Big 12 Tournament in 2012.
Missouri becomes the fifth ranked opponent for Texas in six SEC games in the midst of a 1-4 start for head coach Rodney Terry’s team that has further exposed the flaws that even one of the nation’s worst non-conference schedules could not entirely obscure.
At No. 37 nationally in adjusted efficiency, the Longhorns are in the 89th percentile offensively thanks to a turnover rate that ranks 13th and a three-point shooting percentage that ranks 24th.
But after guard Max Abmas and forward Dylan Disu keyed an elite pick-and-roll attack last season, Texas is no longer a dangerous team running ball screens because of the lack of a high-level pick-and-pop threat or effective rim runner with senior forward Arthur Kaluma, who is battling through a calf injury sustained in last week’s win over Oklahoma, the best pick-and-pop threat. Even that threat is mitigated, however, by Kaluma’s deliberate release and desire to use his pump fake to beat opponents off the bounce.
It’s a roster build issue created by the inability to land a quality frontcourt player through the NCAA transfer portal that has forced senior forward Kadin Shedrick to play a larger role than is ideal for someone with his capabilities.
The Virginia transfer is playing the most minutes of his career, but is only averaging 7.8 points in 25.9 minutes per game after averaging 7.7 points in 17.2 minutes per game last season because he’s not a particularly strong finisher around the rim and doesn’t provide a credible pick-and-roll threat, related to hopes of Shedrick developing an effective jump shot that have completely faded.
The result is a minuscule usage rate of just 15.6 percent and stat lines like zero points in 27 minutes against Texas A&M, four points in 31 minutes against Auburn, four points in 32 minutes against Tennessee, and zero points in 13 minutes against Florida.
Against rugged SEC frontcourts, Shedrick also struggles to finish defensive possessions with rebounds — his rebounding rate on that end of the court is significantly lower than that of injured junior guard Chendall Weaver — and consistently gets sealed by stronger offensive players, allowing dribble penetration to regularly turn into uncontested layups, part of larger team-wide issues in that area.
In halfcourt offense, the pick-and-roll problems manifest in sets that encourage isolation basketball, reducing ball movement and forcing Longhorns players to beat opponents off the dribble and then deal with defenses that aren’t consistently forced to scramble to make multiple rotations. As a result, the assist rate for Texas is in the 23rd percentile nationally and the team’s adjusted tempo is in the 47th percentile because the Horns struggle to create baskets early in the shot clock outside of transition since the Longhorns can’t produce easy shots quick-hitting ball screens.
Meanwhile, individual players have to spend significant energy off the bounce to create their own shots, which are made more difficult because those shots are regularly taken off the dribble.
And while Terry talks consistently about the desire to play inside-out to create quality looks, the lack of a low-post threat means that defenses don’t have to double post touches.
The offensive issues are compounded by the lack of a high-level true point guard — junior Jordan Pope has shown real flashes of scoring ability, but his assist rate of 13.1 percent is barely higher than Kaluma and freshman guard Tre Johnson, and backup Julian Larry has a turnover rate of 29.5 percent that is higher than his assist 28.9 percent. That means that on a team that otherwise protects the ball well, Larry has accounted for almost 21 percent of the turnovers Texas has committed this season.
Larry hasn’t provided much scoring punch, either, failing to reach double digits since his 11-point, 13-assist performance against Arkansas-Pine Bluff, the third-worst team in adjusted efficiency in the entire country. In SEC play, the Indiana State transfer is averaging 5.0 points per game with a four-turnover performance against Auburn and a five-turnover performance against Florida.
The other Indiana State transfer, senior forward Jayson Kent, has been hampered by a wrist injury that has arguably contributed to scoring eight total points in five SEC games. Kent is shooting a career-low 25 percent from beyond the arc after hitting at 36.6 percent last season while his cutting ability has been negated by the lack of a high-post threat like his former teammate Robbie Avila, one of last season’s breakout stars in college basketball.
The result is a bench that lacks ability to provide scoring and doesn’t even have Weaver available to provide energy on both ends as persistent injuries continue to impact the Texas season.
Third-year head coach Dennis Gates initially executed a quick turnaround at Missouri before going winless in the conference last year thanks to a combination of poor injury luck and poor luck on the hardwood. At 15-3 this year, the Tigers have bounced back as Gates turned over the roster with five additions from the portal and five high school signees.
At No. 12 nationally in adjusted efficiency, Missouri boats an elite offense fueled by strong shooting from across the court and the No. 2 free-throw rate in the country, led by Duke transfer guard Mark Mitchell and sophomore guard Anthony Robinson II. In a balanced scoring lineup, Mitchell and Robinson are two of the four players who average double-digit scoring per game, led by Mitchell at 13.4 points per game. The leader in three-point baskets for the Tigers is a familiar face — Cyclones transfer Caleb Grill, hitting at 49.3 percent.
Defensively, Missouri isn’t nearly as good, as the Tigers are opportunistic enough to force turnovers at a high rate, but struggle to secure defensive rebounds and have issues at times with sending opponents to the free-throw line.
So even with the benefit of homecourt advantage, Texas is only a 2.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel, and has a 54-percent win probability in what amounts to a must-win game for the Horns in regards to their NCAA Tournament aspirations — after home losses against teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in the country at the time, Texas is still looking for its first victory at the Moody Center in SEC play.