How the Horns and Buckeyes match up in the Cotton Bowl.
The Texas Longhorns narrowly escaped an upset against the Arizona State Sun Devils last week back in Atlanta that had all of us questioning if this was quarterback Quinn Ewers’ collegiate ending and if Mercedes-Benz Stadium is possibly cursed. They will head into the semifinal against what is the toughest opponent remaining in the Ohio State Buckeyes. OSU looked vulnerable after their loss to Michigan, building on top of the case that head coach Ryan Day just simply couldn’t win the big one. Whatever happened in their locker room while they sat out conference championship week sure worked as they came back to absolutely dominate Tennessee and exact their revenge against Oregon.
Offense
The Horns got out to an excellent start against the Sun Devils, racing out to a comfortable 14-3 lead with just two offensive plays, but they later entered their mid-game rut as usual. Despite the amount of hate Ewers has received, he willed the team back with a rushing touchdown in the third quarter, plus set up two drives that resulted in missed field goals (I fell to my knees at the sound of the ball doinking off the upright). In overtime, on 4th and 13, he delivered yet again to wide receiver Matthew Golden, who has become a cornerstone of the passing game since Isaiah Bond’s injury. On the first play of double overtime, he hit tight end Gunnar Helm, and regardless of what happens in the remainder of the playoffs, I think it’s fair to say he has taken third place among quarterbacks in Texas football history.
The running attack has been volatile in the last few games, and I cannot stress enough how much it relieves pressure from Ewers to be able to get his looks. Against an impressive front of A&M and a solid one from Clemson, Texas dominated on the ground. However, against Georgia they struggled again. Surprisingly, against an ASU defensive line, with no players listed over 300 pounds, they could not find much success.
Texas runs outsize zone on about a third of their runs (ranks 17th most in the nation), utilizing their talented tackles in Kelvin Banks and Cameron Williams to create space. OSU boasts what may be the most talented edge defender combo in Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau that have led them to the second-best rush defense in the FBS, according to PFF.
This battle in the trenches will be the difference maker in allowing the Horns to develop any offensive rhythm throughout the game, keep possession of the ball, and not expose the Horns defense to long stretches on the field. Below I have tallied the how each side of the ball has performed in the run game so far this season, detailing the rotation of tackles versus edges. Stop percentage refers to the percentage of plays that defensive player was responsible for the tackle that stopped the run, and average depth of tackle is how many yards beyond the scrimmage the opposing back was at the point of the stop.
The other players to watch out for in the run game are defensive tackle Tyleik Williams (20 stops) and nose tackle Kayden McDonald (10). At the next level they also have linebacker mike linebacker Cody Simon (19), corner Davison Igbinosun (5), free safety Caleb Downs (17) and strong safety Lathan Ransom (17).
In the pass rush, Sawyer (18% win percentage, 9 sacks) and Tuimolau (12.2%, 12) are yet again their best assets, followed by Caden Curry (7.8%, 2) and Kenyatta Jackson (12.8%, 2). They rank 17th in the nation in pass rush production.
Lastly, is their coverage, in which they rank 10th per PFF, but first in raw pass yards allowed per game with 152.4. Golden and DeAndre Moore have composed most targets for Ewers recently, with Ryan Wingo and Gunnar Helm seeing less than what they did earlier in the year. Either early easy passes to the latter two, or a glimpse of Bond’s former self need to happen if we hope to see Ewers able to play stress-free. Otherwise, it might all hinge on Golden against OSU’s leading corner Denzel Burke (2 pass breakups, 2 interceptions). A ray of hope is on the other side, Ignobuson (8, 2) ranks the lowest amongst the Buckeyes in coverage, allowing a 52.9-percent completion rate for 11.8 yards per catch. To aid him, however, is a stellar safety trio consisting of All-American Downs (3, 1), Ransom (1, 1), and Jordan Hancock (4, 1).
Defense
In the last two games, OSU’s offense has been explosive to put it mildly. Many questioned quarterback Will Howard’s ability to elevate this offense to the next level but he has had a career year as well. Below is a passing depth chart for Howard on the season, showing what areas of the field he has had the most success in. The size of the bubbles is correlated with the number of targets within that region.
The Achilles’ heel in the Buckeyes offense in recent games has been pressure. Howard, like most quarterbacks, doesn’t do well when he sees it, in fact resulting in a 5.2-percent turnover-worthy play rate on the 106 dropbacks he has faced pressure. This has led to three picks, two batted throws, 11 sacks, but, impressively, still six touchdowns.
With the weakened offensive line, OSU has allowed more defenders to get to Howard in recent games. The chart below shows the number of pressures versus sacks allowed in the past six games for OSU, with the labels being the opponent. I have also included the numbers the Texas defense has put up for comparison. The dotted line represents the average pressure to sack ratio in the nation, so games below the line would exhibit instances where the QB did solid job avoiding the sack.
Howard has seen more pressure than what the Buckeyes have generally been comfortable with, but even against talented fronts from Michigan, Tennessee, and Oregon, he remained unscathed. The Horns put up astounding numbers in the playoffs so far, tallying 16 pressures against Clemson and 33 against Arizona State. The question will be if they can make it all the way to Howard and to create game-changing plays.
The engine of this offense though are the receivers who will go in the first round of their respective draft classes in Jeremiah Smith and Emeka Egbuka. They will go up against the best team in coverage in the nation, but that title has already been challenged. Just from the watching these playoffs, I noticed cornerback Malik Muhammad give up some big throws that allowed opponents to stay in the games. Cornerback Jahdae Barron is incredible all around, he was used heavily in the blitz game last week, as ASU was without their best receiver, Jordyn Tyson. However, I don’t think Texas can afford to utilize him anywhere else other than on Smith or Egbuka. The question mark will be who he takes, and who is left for another Longhorn defensive back to have to battle with.
Below I separated how each of the most active defensive backs have performed in coverage in the past four games. I limited this to the opponent’s top three pass catchers going into the game. I compared the completion percentage versus yards per reception allowed, and the size of the bubble corresponds to the number of times they were targeted when responsible for said receiver.
Barron and free safety Andrew Mukuba have been the best performers for Texas lately, but that won’t be enough to stop OSU. Muhammad, Guilbeau, and Taaffe will all need to be present, productive, and forceful throughout this game to keep their wide receivers from creating 20-plus yard plays.
Conclusion
It’s ok if you don’t want to admit it, but after Penn State, Texas has had the easiest route so far in the playoffs. We are at a point where they are now an underdog for the first time since making Nick Saban consider retirement. I was personally confused why Texas was listed as favorites going into both Georgia games, but I guess that’s the double-edged sword that comes with being such an established program. Nevertheless, we are in for a whirlwind.
Ewers will need to have an amazing performance yet again if the run game cannot get established, and the defense will need to kick it into another gear to prove there are no weak links in Austin. Win or lose, we must be grateful for the transition we have had on the way out of the Big 12 and into the SEC, for getting to experience the Sark/Ewers duo, and my Horns will always be up. My prediction for the game is 24-17.