After a chaotic Week Six of college football in the SEC, let’s look ahead to the upcoming opponents for the Longhorns to see how the first season in the SEC will likely shape out.
After their first SEC game and win in the books, the No. 1 Texas Longhorns come out of the season’s first bye week geared up to compete in the most dominant conference in college football, a conference that was flipped upside down last weekend with Texas now sitting as the only undefeated team in the SEC and once again ranked atop the AP Top 25 poll.
Back in 2021 when Texas and Oklahoma made the announcement that they’d be moving to the SEC, many speculated that the Longhorns would struggle and the Sooners would thrive. But just like getting hot in the fourth quarter, the program’s trajectories shifted in the wake of Texas hiring head coach Steve Sarkisian and Oklahoma starting to stumble after Lincoln Riley left for USC.
Now with a full SEC slate ahead of the Longhorns, it’s time to examine the upcoming path for the burnt orange and white, based on how the Texas opponents were projected to start the season compared to where they sit now.
No. 18 Oklahoma
Preseason: No. 8 in the SEC, No. 16 in the preseason AP Top 25 poll
Preseason All-SEC picks: Three
Oklahoma has had a tough start to their SEC tenure. Second-year head coach Brent Venibles has been decimated with injuries to the wide receiving corps and offensive line. Despite the adversity, the Sooners have continued to win games, notching a 4-1 record on the 2024 season so far.
Mediocre performances against Houston and Tulane raised the alarm bells in Norman, so a 25-15 loss to then-No. 6 Tennessee was hardly surprising. More shocking was the need to bench second-year quarterback Jackson Arnold, a former consensus five-star prospect in the 2023 recruiting class, in favor of the speedy true freshman Michael Hawkins Jr., who needed to come up with some late-game heroics to beat Auburn prior to the bye week.
Despite the injuries and uncertainty at , the Red River Rivalry will always be a shootout. With starting quarterback Quinn Ewers expected to make his return from injury, the Longhorns should still have the edge, but this is never a program to underestimate in this game.
Stock Watch: Down
No. 5 Georgia
Preseason: No. 1 in the SEC, No. 1 in the preseason AP Top 25 poll
Preseason All-SEC picks: 15
Former back-to-back national champion Georgia came into this season as the undisputed favorites to dominate the SEC and to win it all again. After five games, however, the Bulldogs are starting to look more like Uga getting chased by Bevo before the 2018 Sugar Bowl with a narrow victory over Kentucky and a loss to Alabama the week before the Crimson Tide lost to the Commodores in Nashville.
The metrics are all still positive with the No. 6 offense, No. 9 defense, and the No. 7 special teams unit in the country according to this week’s SP+ rankings, but Georgia clearly isn’t as intimidating as it has been in the past under head coach Kirby Smart.
The Kentucky defense which was thought to be a B- at the beginning of the season was able to hold them under 15 points and Alabama, expected to have a down year after the loss of Nick Saban, racked up 21 unanswered points to start their matchup.
Texas gets to host Georgia in Austin for this game and it will still be a dog fight, but it’s certainly a more winnable game than most Longhorn faithful believed at the start of the season with this game trending as more and more winnable for Texas — as long as the Horns can get past the Sooners in Dallas this weekend.
Stock Watch: Down
Vanderbilt
Preseason: No. 16 in the SEC
Preseason All-SEC picks: 0
The layup game for the SEC has shown some fight this year — when Texas travels to Nashville on Oct. 26, it may not be the automatic victory that many believed at the start of the season. Vandy battled Missouri to a 30-27 overtime loss in Week Four and upset Alabama, the No. 1 team in the nation, last weekend in Nashville with the 40-35 win ranking for the biggest in program history.
They have a strong senior behind center in New Mexico State transfer Diego Pavia, who has yet to throw an interception all season. With 978 passing yards and eight touchdowns, Pavia is brewing something special in Nashville.
These Commodores have some fight in them for being the brainy bunch of the SEC and with the Longhorns playing them at home, this might not be the cupcake win for Texas that many thought it to be at the beginning of the season. They have a rolling Kentucky team next week, which will be another big test for Vanderbilt, before they play Ball State and then Texas in Austin.
Stock Watch: Up
Florida
Preseason: No. 12 in the SEC
Preseason All-SEC picks: 4
With the additions of Tyreak Sapp at defensive end and consensus five-star freshman quarterback DJ Lagway I thought Florida would be a sneaky team this season. With embarrassing losses to Miami and Texas A&M, however, they seem to be falling into the same struggles they have been trapped in since the Tim Tebow era.
They have an interesting two-quarterback system in Gainesville with Lagway, ranked as the No. 2 quarterback in the 2024 recruiting class, and senior pocket passer Graham Mertz.
Lagway threw for an incredible 456 passing yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions against Samford in Week Two, but after that has settled into a developmental role behind Mertz in his freshman season.
The Gators spread the ball out well with eight different receivers catching a touchdown this year — they can let it fly on offense, but the losses suggest they still seem to struggle against upper-echelon teams and they have a tough road ahead, taking on Tennessee, Kentucky, and then Georgia before playing Texas in Austin, so we will get a better understanding of this Florida team during that stretch.
Stock Watch: Down
Arkansas
Preseason: No. 14 in the SEC
Preseason All-SEC picks: 1
Arkansas is another team that projected as a low-end SEC team. After losses to Oklahoma State and Texas A&M, this didn’t look like a team that would be able to put up much fight against a contender. Then the Hogs went and shocked the nation by upsetting the then-No. 4 Volunteers, 19-14, showing that their defense can perform at an elite level to make up for the injury to starting quarterback Taylen Green.
This is a Tennessee team that averaged 54 points going into this game and looked helpless in Fayetteville despite having a dog in the backfield in running back Dylan Sampson, who carried the ball 22 times for 140 yards and two touchdowns.
Arkansas has a big test against an angry Bama team that just lost to Vanderbilt last week, so we will see if the Razorbacks are getting hot at the right time or were just a flash in the pan against the Vols.
Stock Watch: Even
Kentucky
Preseason: No. 11 in the SEC
Preseason All-SEC picks: 6
Do not sleep on Kentucky. I don’t think anyone expected the Wildcats to be as good as they have been this season. They took Georgia to the wire in primetime, losing 13-12, and crushed Jaxon Dart and Lane Kiffin’s dreams with a 20-17 upset late last month.
The most impressive and unexpected aspect of this upset is how Kentucky was able to limit the high-flying Ole Miss offense run by Kiffin that many thought going into the season would be one of the best passing attacks in college football.
The Wildcats can also be sporadic and inconsistent, as demonstrated by their Week Two loss to the Gamecocks in which they were buzz sawed 31-6. Mind you, this is a South Carolina team that just lost to Ole Miss 27-3.
Coming off a bye this last week, Kentucky plays a red-hot Vanderbilt team that may have just had the best game of the 2024 season against Alabama. Junior Georgia transfer quarterback Brock Vandagriff has a big arm that can create big plays, but he also threw three of his four passing touchdowns in the season opener against a 1-4 Southern Miss team. Instead of relying on Vandagriff, Kentucky prefers to control tempo with the ground game with a 63-37 run-pass split this season.
Stock Watch: Up
No. 15 Texas A&M
Preseason: No. 9 in the SEC, No. 20 in the preseason AP Top 25 poll
Preseason All-SEC picks: Three
After paying Jimbo Fisher $75 million just to not coach there and losing half of their roster to the transfer portal many, including myself, counted the Aggies out this year. Then they lost the season opener to a Notre Dame team at home that went on to lose to Northern Illinois the next week.
Since then Texas A&M has managed to start a winning streak despite the injury sustained by starting quarterback Conner Weigman, notching victories against Florida, Arkansas, and then-No. 9 ranked Missouri, a dominant 41-10 win.
Weigman looked great against Tigers after missing three straight games due to a shoulder injury, a period during which backup Marcel Reed, a four-star dual threat out of Nashville in 2024 recruiting class, won three straight games for the Aggies while he recovered.
These Aggies have some fight in them and with this game ranking as one of the long-awaited rivalry reunions in all of college sports, this will definitely be a tougher game than many predicted at the beginning of the season.
Stock watch: Up