Plus, managing Bert Auburn and staff predictions
It’s almost gameday and judging by the oddsmakers and national media, it might be the last gameday for the Texas Longhorns. How can Steve Sarkisian and the Horns pull off the upset over Ohio State?
Daniel Seahorn (@DanielSeahorn) – They need to play complementary football and they will need their best offensive performance of the year. They will need to be able to run the football and not be one-dimensional so that Ohio State is able to pin their ears back and go after Quinn Ewers. Defensively, they will have to have one hell of a plan for defending Jeremiah Smith. Shutting him down is probably out of the question, but you need to do your best to funnel the football somewhere else when you can.
Gerald Goodridge (@ghgoodridge) – I think the biggest thing for Texas is to play complimentary football and get the running game going. The Ohio State offense is too good for the Texas offense to just take the third quarter off, so figuring out how to keep the offense on track during the third quarter will be paramount to their success. Expecting Texas to shut down the Ohio State offense is an unfair expectation (they are No. 1 nationally in points per drive and yards per play), but if the defense can manage to limit them to four scores instead of their five or six they usually put up – the offense needs to reward that.
Cameron Parker (@camerondparker) – They’ll need to play their best game of the season and likely a four-quarter game, something we haven’t seen yet. You won’t be able to completely shut down the Ohio State offense but you can disrupt Will Howard’s timing by pressuring him. You do that and you might be able to force turnovers. If the Longhorns can win the turnover battle and have positive plays in special teams, they can upset Ohio State.
Jacob Neidig (@jneidig_2) – Turn the game ugly. If Texas can find a way to force a few turnovers, execute to extend drives and shorten the game, I think the likelihood of a Texas win increases. An added component to that will be trying to disrupt Will Howard. The defense needs to make him feel rushed or disrupt his rhythm. You’ve lost once he gets the ball to the endless supply of playmakers. The defensive line and blitzing defenders need to play a big role.
Does this game fall on the shoulders of Quinn Ewers with the Texas run offense struggling? Or can Sark get the ground game going against Ohio State?
Daniel – I think it collectively falls on everyone on the offensive side of the ball and that includes the coaches on the headsets. Texas will need a great offensive game plan and the players and personnel will need to be crisp and execute if they want to have a chance at winning this game. This will be the toughest defensive matchup they’ve had all year. It’s an all-hands-on-deck approach.
Gerald – I think if Texas can’t find a way to get the ground game going, there’s no way QE can shoulder the load. You can very easily see a correlation between the Longhorns’ margin of victory and their rushing yards for the day, which is what opens up the offense. The four worst games of the season? Georgia twice, Vanderbilt, and Arizona State. Can’t have a one-dimensional offense and expect to beat many teams, especially not a team with a 90% blue-chip ratio like the Ohio State Buckeyes.
Cameron – I expect Sark to open the game heavy pass and then try to establish the run. Don’t be surprised if Texas starts the game on offense if they win the coin flip with Ohio State’s knack for starting fast. But I don’t foresee the Longhorns winning this game with sub-50 rushing yards like they did against Arizona State. They key will be playing complimentary football. Actually, the key will be playing a darn near perfect game.
Jacob – By nature of the position, the game falls on Ewers, especially when the margin becomes razor-thin as it seems to be against Ohio State. He obviously isn’t blocking or running routes but his overall control of the offense lends to greater responsibility than anyone else. Even if Texas can resurrect the run game, Ewers remains on the hook. He will still have to make huge throws for Texas to win.
How would you manage field-goal attempts and Bert Auburn in the Cotton Bowl?
Daniel – Anything greater than 40-45 yards I’d be ready to go for it if it’s a manageable down and distance. It’s too big of a game to put it on the leg of a kicker that has been inconsistent and if we’re being honest three-pointers will not win you this game.
Gerald – I honestly think you have to manage the game as you normally would inside the 25, but I wonder if Sark is a bit more aggressive when the distances get a bit longer. Outside of that, you have to just hope that Jeff Banks spent a lot of 1:1 time with Bert this week.
Cameron – Bert has been solid under 40 yards but the 38-yard miss at the end of regulation was alarming. That was a mental miss. Between that and this being a do-or-die game, I think Sark will be Dan Campbell aggressive on 4th-down.
Jacob – I’d expect the greatest difference to be in red zone plus on second and third down play calls rather than what we traditionally associate kicking decisions with. I could reasonably see Sarkisian opting to run the ball on second and third down even if it is getting stonewalled to not only maintain optionality later in the downs but keep the defense honest. Given how Sark coaches, I expect him to find new ways to reduce the chance of having to decide between keeping the offense on the field or sending SideShow out there.
Texas is an underdog for the first time this season against the Buckeyes. Does this play into Sark’s favor?
Daniel – It gives Sark a different tune to play to fire up his troops, but it will remain to be seen if that plays in their favor. Some teams respond better being the underdog in games like this, but it remains to be seen if this Texas team will respond that way.
Gerald – We’ve already seen Sark playing it up a bit in the media early in the week, so I think he is definitely going to try and pull that lever. Nick Saban is one of the greatest of all time at using bulletin board material, even when he had the better team, and Sark learned that from him. I would be SHOCKED if they weren’t screaming from the mountaintops that everybody is doubting them and bumping Many Men in the weight room.
Cameron – Texas has played well under Sark as the underdog in the past two seasons with a win over Alabama in ‘23 and a one-point loss in ‘22. TBut those were flawed Alabama teams and I don’t see a lot of flaws with this Ohio State team. But we also haven’t see a Ryan Day-led Buckeye team with a National Championship. You’re unproven until you’re not. We also haven’t seen a Sark-led Texas team lose by more than a touchdown since his first season. They’ll be ready to play.
Jacob – 1000%. Even early in the week in interviews, it was relatively transparent that Sarkisian has the Texas players absolutely dialed into the underdog trope. They’ve taken the disrespect personally. Texas needs every mental advantage possible so I think this bodes well for the Longhorns.
Will Texas (+6) pull off the upset over Ohio State and advance to the National Championship?
Daniel (14-2/6-9 ATS) – I will have to see it happen and that’s just me being a realist. Ohio State is the heavy favorite to win it all and they are playing like the team everyone pegged them to be before the season. If they continue to play like they did against Oregon then they will beat anyone left on the schedule. Ohio State 28, Texas 21
Gerald (13-2/7-7 ATS) – This is the biggest head/heart disconnect I have had this year. I am going to cheer my keister off for Texas, but I think with the way Ohio State has been playing as of late, you need a perfect game from Texas and we just haven’t seen them play anything close to that this year. I do think Texas can keep it close, but I have Ohio State 38, Texas 31
Cameron (14-1/6-9 ATS) – Unless Ryan Day and Chip Kelly fall down the stairs at home and forget that Jeremiah Smith exists, I don’t think the Texas offense can keep up with Ohio State’s. The Buckeyes have the most complete roster in college football and are playing the best ball out of anyone. Ohio State 38, Texas 34
Jacob (14-1/7-8 ATS) – Yes. After two playoff matchups from each team, I expect regression to the mean from both squads. The highs of two lopsided victories and lows of two dicey wins will normalize. This logic may still not immediately suggest a Texas victory but I do think the overall outcome swings to the good guys because of an inability for Ohio State to finish out tough games. I’m not sold at all on the ability of Ohio State to win close matchups. Texas 35, Ohio State 31.