Arizona State will try to do what they’ve always done this year — run the ball and control the game.
The No. 5 seed Texas Longhorns are back in Atlanta and hope for a better result than the last trip for the SEC Championship game, taking on the No. 4 seed Arizona State Sun Devils in the quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff at the Peach Bowl. The Sun Devils were not expected to be anywhere near the CFP — they were picked last in the Big 12 Preseason Poll and dropped their first conference game to the Texas Tech Red Raiders.
After winning six of their last seven conference games to make the Big 12 Championship game and dominating Iowa State in that matchup, Arizona State is happy to be in the CFP, but not content to just be a part of it.
“There is no doubt we are playing with house money. To say we are not is just a lie. Nobody expected us to be here. But if you’re a competitor and you wake up a day not wanting to compete versus the very best, then something is wrong with you,” ASU head coach Kenny Dillingham said ahead of the game.
“Just because you are playing with house money doesn’t mean you should be satisfied. We should be driven every single day to be the best version of ourselves, repeat, repeat, repeat, repeat.”
The Sun Devils are big underdogs in the Peach Bowl, looking at a 14-point spread heading into the matchup. ASU would love nothing more to come away with another big upset win, so how can Texas avoid running into the trap and move onto the CFP semifinals?
Control the Arizona State ground game
It’s no secret that the Arizona State ground game is their key to the offense, specifically do-everything running back Cam Skattebo, a top-five rusher in the country averaging 130.67 yards per game and touching the ball on more than 34 percent of their offensive plays. The senior has gone for fewer than 100 yards just five times this year, two of which came in the Sun Devils’ two losses this year.
Overall, Arizona State wants to push the ball on the ground via Skatebo or quarterback Sam Leavitt, who averages eight carries for nearly 32 yards per game. Overall, the Sun Devils’ success is determined by their ground game, averaging 209.09 yards in wins and 142.5 yards in losses. Perhaps even more telling is the split against Power Four schools with winning records, rushing for just 143.4 while rushing for 233.5 against those with losing records
Avoid turnovers
While the offense gets most of the hype, the Sun Devils defense does a lot of work to keep Arizona State in the win column, ranking No. 6 in the country in turnover margin, including their 15 interceptions on the year. Five Sun Devils players have multiple interceptions this year, including Caleb McCullough who plays a big part in their pass defense. ASU turned in six multi-turnover games this year, five of which featured three takeaways – including their lopsided win over Iowa State to win the Big 12 title.
In the win that vaulted them to the first-round bye, the Sun Devils turned the Cyclones over on their first three drives of the second half, forcing two fumbles and coming up with an interception. ASU scored touchdowns on all three of the following drives to extend the lead to 45-10. On those three drives, the three drives covered 43 yards, 26 yards, and 38 yards to take what turned out to be an insurmountable lead.
Time of possession
Offensively, the Sun Devils are one of the most ruthlessly efficient offenses in the country, sitting No. 20 in points per play, No. 13 in the country in time of possession, and No. 24 in seconds per play, taking nearly 29 seconds per play offensively. They maximize each drive, ranking No. 9 in the country in points per drive by averaging more than a field goal each time they have the ball offensively, a number that jumps to 4.24 points per drive when given a short field to work with.
Conversely, Texas is the best scoring defense in the country, giving up just one point per drive defensively. Perhaps the most impressive outcome is the Longhorns’ ability to deal with quick changes and short fields, giving up just two points on drives with 60 yards or fewer to go.
The Longhorns, and specifically defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski, have their work cut out trying to shut down the Sun Devils offense and get them off the field. Thankfully for Texas, even if its offense struggles to get onto the field they can score quickly, averaging 2.94 points per drive while sitting at No. 52 in the country in time of possession.