Led by New Mexico State transfer quarterback Diego Pavia, Vanderbilt is off to its best start since 2008.
When looking at the schedule for the No. 5 Texas Longhorns in the preseason, many predicted this game to be an easy win for the burnt orange and white on the road. Nick Saban even commented earlier this year, “The only place you play in the SEC that’s not hard to play, is Vanderbilt.” However in 2024, the No. 25 Vanderbilt Commodores are undefeated at home, and surging with an impressive 5-2 record, the program’s best start since 2008.
After Saban’s comment, Vanderbilt went on to upset Saban’s former Alabama team in Nashville, 40-35, making them undefeated at home this season. The next week they were able to upset a good Kentucky team that barely lost to Georgia and upset Ole Miss on the road, 20-13.
Vanderbilt suffered a 30-27 road loss to Missouri on a last-minute field goal and what now looks like an inexplicable road loss to Georgia State.
The Commodores have gotten hot at the right time, and now as they host the Longhorns off an embarrassing loss to the Bulldogs, the hungry face the angry on Saturday at FirstBank Stadium on SEC Network.
Offense
The strongest aspect of this Commodores offense is their ability to stay on the field and sustain long drives, mainly due to the emergence of their dual-threat quarterback Diego Pavia. They do most of their work in the run game, both with Pavia, and running back Sedrick Alexander, an Austin LBJ product. They also have the ability to cut apart defenses in the short and intermediate passing game with their talented tight end Eli Stowers.
This enables them to create methodical drives that keep the defense on the field for long periods of time. Their strong red-zone efficiency allows them to cap off these drives with points, wearing down opposing defenses while resting their own.
Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian commented on the efficiency of the Commodores offense on Monday and their ability to stay on the field.
“When Alabama went to Vanderbilt a few weeks ago they ran 48 plays, I think their next opponent ran 52, I think Ball State ran 60,” Sarkisian said. “We need to find a way defensively to get them off the field, which probably means we need to win on first down, we’ve got to do a great job on third down, and try to minimize the third and short opportunities that they get.”
Two major pieces of this offense are listed as questionable headed into Week Nine — their leading back Alexander and their star tight end Stowers, who leads the team in all receiving stats. Their availability will certainly make a strong impact in this game, and their offense’s ability to play at their own pace, that has brought them so much success this season.
Quarterback
Pavia, a super senior quarterback out of New Mexico, is the heart and soul of this team after spending two seasons at the New Mexico Military Institute and two seasons at New Mexico State. At 6’0, 200 pounds, he has a unique ability to run through contact and also make plays in the passing game.
“Quarterback’s a heck of a player,” Sark said Monday. “He definitely is the straw that stirs the drink for them in the run game and in the pass game. He’s definitely infused a winning mentality into that team, so we’ve definitely got our work cut out for us against him.
Through the air Pavia has been great with 1,388 passing yards, 11 touchdowns, and only one interception on the season — efficiency is the best way to describe him. He has a PFF passing grade of 90 and can sling it all over the field.
He’s gone 7-of-21 passing for 292 yards and two touchdowns on passes over 20-plus air yards. He seems to favor the middle of the field with crossing routes, slants and post routes on all three levels. Primarily Pavia and the Commodores run traditional pockets, with only 26.6 percent of snaps in play action and only 15 screen passes on the season. This leaves the door open for his ability to scramble and designed quarterback runs.
So far this season Pavia has taken off on the run 117 times for 559 yards and three touchdowns. Pavia runs like a Tim Tebow or Sam Ehlinger — he’s not afraid of contact, with 440 of those 559 yards coming after contact. He even acts as a lead blocker in running plays at times with 152 blocking attempts this season and a PFF grade of 89.
Seventy-five of his attempts have been on designed runs for 396 yards, while 22 attempts have been on scrambles for 163 yards. Pavia seemingly does it all for the Commodores, so containing him will be the obvious primary goal for the Longhorns this Saturday.
Against Bama he went 16-of-20 passing for 252 yards and two touchdowns and was also a major part of their running game with 20 carries for 56 yards.
Running backs
Sophomore running back Sedrick Alexander is the lead back for the Commodores with 94 attempts for 373 yards and five touchdowns. At 5’9, 199 pounds, his smaller frame allows him to split tackles and use his speed in the open field.
He can work both on the outside and between the tackles with 35 attempts on the outside, 27 between the guards and tackles, and 26 between the A and B gaps.
Alexander can be a wrecking ball, with 287 of his 373 yards coming after contact, following gap schemes primarily with 72 attempts in the gap. Whether he is running through tackles, or out in space, Alexander has sure hands and has yet to put the ball on the carpet this season with zero fumbles so far.
Alexander also acts as an effective pass catcher with 13 receptions on 15 targets for 141 yards and a touchdown, making him the fourth-leading pass catcher on the team. He has lined up as a wide receiver 140 times this season and is a reliable resource in the Commodore’s use of the short passing game to extend lengthy drives.
Despite not missing any time against Ball State last week, Alexander is listed as questionable this Saturday against Texas.
If Alexander is unable to go, the bulk of the rushing duties should fall to sophomore running back AJ Newberry. Newberry is somewhat the opposite of Alexander in his tangibles. Standing 6’1, 197 pounds, Newberry uses his larger frame as more of a power back. So far this season he has totaled 30 carries for 147 yards and three touchdowns, one of which came through the air.
Newberry is also a capable receiver, with six receptions on eight targets for 106 yards and a touchdown. He is even known to be used as a pure receiver, lining up in the slot 14 times this season. His larger frame makes him more equipped to make contested catches, but the running back in him makes him dangerous in the open field as 64 of his 106 receiving yards have come after the catch.
Wide receivers
Although the Vanderbilt passing game primarily runs through Stowers, the two major receivers on this team are senior wide receiver Quincy Skinner Jr. and sophomore Junior Sherrill.
Skinner has been targeted 24 times with 16 receptions for 207 yards and one touchdown. At 6’2, 205 pounds, Skinner has a larger frame and acts as the Commodores primary receiver out wide — 98.1 percent of his snaps are lined up in the X out wide. However, despite where he lines up. Skinner does the majority of his work in the intermediate routes, with only two targets and zero receptions over 20-plus yards.
Sherrell has brought in 12 receptions on 21 targets for 198 yards and two touchdowns. Despite his smaller size at 5’11, 172 pounds, Sherrill is the primary deep threat for Pavia with an average depth of target of 17.9 yards out of both the slot where he lines up 14.4 percent of the time, but mostly out wide where he lines up 85.6 percent of the time.
Tight end
The Commodores love to use their Stowers in the passing game. Stowers leads the team in all receiving categories with 33 receptions on 44 targets for 463 yards and two touchdowns.
At 6’4, 225 pounds, Stowers acts more as a slot receiver than a tight end with 71.2 percent of his snaps lined up in the slot and only 25.6 percent in line with the offensive line. In fact he has only lined up as a pass blocker twice this season and even lined up out wide five times.
He does most of his work in short receptions with an average depth of target of 7.3 yards, but can make things happen after the catch — 308 of his 463 yards have been accumulated after the catch.
He has sure hands with only two drops on the season and is a major threat for the Commodores in the red zone. He has a unique skill to high point the ball and make contested catches over smaller defenders with five contested catches this season.
However, Stowers is listed as questionable going into this game coming off an incredible performance against Ball State during which he racked up eight catches for 130 yards and a touchdown. If he is unable to go, it will be a devastating loss for the Commodores.
Offensive line
The Commodores have a very interesting offensive line. They rotate players frequently between positions, sometimes even in the same game. Gunnar Hansen and Chase Hansen rotate at tackle, Steven Hubbard and Kevo Wesley rotate at guard, and their center Stephen Losoya III has taken snaps at center and left guard.
Despite this unique rotation, they have managed to keep Pavia clean in both pass protection and in run support, allowing zero sacks against a vaunted Alabama defensive line and only five total sacks all season.
Size and experience are what define this front five — all five are seniors with three returning starters who weigh an average of 326 pounds.
Hansen, the senior tackle, is massive, standing at 6’5, 321 pounds, and returning for his third season with the Commodores. Despite his large frame and size, he still has a unique ability to stay in front of pass rushers, allowing only a single sack this season. This year he has allowed 1 quarterback hit, seven hurries, and nine pressures, and was able to shut down Alabama edge rusher Quandarrius Robinson in one of his worst performances of the season.
The other tackle who also plays both left and right is senior Chase Mitchell. Another large human at 6’4, 320 pounds, Mitchell transferred from Liberty to play in Nashville this season. Other than Hansen, Mitchell has played the second most snaps on this offensive line. He has yet to allow a sack this season, nine hurries, and 10 pressures.
Both Mitchell and Hansen have a unique duty in protecting a quarterback like Pavia.
The Commodores have rotated through three different centers, however, the last three games Vanderbilt has gone with senior Delfin Xavier Castillo. Castillo has been with the Commodores his entire collegiate career and at 6’5, 361 pounds he only adds to the massive size of this offensive line. He has yet to allow a sack at the center position and only four hurries and pressures.
Just like the tackles, the Commodores have rotated their guards as well, Hubbard and Wesley.
Hubbard is a 6’3, 314-pound senior who transferred from UTEP this season. Hubbard has also yet to allow a sack this season at both guard positions.
Wesley is a 6’4, 317-pound senior who has played his entire career at Vanderbilt. This season he has seemed to be the weakest point in regards to the rest of this line, allowing one sack, five hurries, and eight quarterback pressures.
Defense
Led by defensive coordinator Nick Howell, the Commodores have allowed at least 27 points in all but one game this season, but have seemed to get hot at the right time — they held Kentucky to only 13 points and Alabama to only two touchdowns in the first half.
They have an incredible ability to get home with their creative pass rushes from all three levels with 16 sacks on the year from the line, linebackers, and secondary.
However, this defense is partially enabled by the offenses’ ability to stay on the field and sustain long drives.
Defensive line
The defense runs primarily through their three edge rushers Miles Capers, Linus Zunk, and Khordae Sydnor.
Senior edge rusher Miles Capers is one of the bigger leaders on this defense. At 6’4, 227 pounds, his speed off the edge is his greatest strength. What he lacks in size, he makes up for in athleticism. So far this season he has totaled nine pressures, two sacks, 17 tackles, and one batted ball.
Capers has the sixth-most snaps on the entire defense despite missing the second half of last week’s game against Ball State. In the second quarter, Capers was carted off the field due to a neck injury and was unable to return to the game. Capers is listed as probable this week.
Khordae Syndor will likely step in for the injured Caper if he is unable to go. The 6’4, 262-pound senior does almost all of his work as a pass rusher on the outside with 122 of his 185 snaps lined up as such. Syndor missed weeks two and three of this season after being injured in the season opener against Virginia Tech.
On the year he has totaled two sacks, nine hurries, and 12 tackles. Syndor has spent the last few weeks getting back to 100 percent.
Finally the big German, junior Linus Zunk. At 6’6, 263 pounds, Zunk’s size gives him an ability to act as a power rusher for the Commodores, totaling 10 pressures and two sacks, both against Virginia Tech. Since then he has been unable to get home.
Linebackers
The biggest injury for Vanderbilt on defense is junior middle linebacker Langston Patterson, who is listed as probable. In his third year with the Commodores, Patterson leads the team in tackles with 28. He has made 15 stops for Vandy on defense, and can be a game wrecker on defense. Patterson has missed the last two games due to an ankle injury and is probable to go this Saturday.
However, despite the loss of Patterson, the Commodores have a strong stable of linebackers.
Brian Longwell, despite his age, has become a large part of this Commodores defense. The 6’1, 227-pound sophomore has totaled six pressures, two sacks, and the third most tackles on the team with 26. He is a more than effective pass rush and run defender who also can drop back in coverage against tight ends and running backs.
Where Longwell struggles is in the open field — seven times this season he’s missed a tackle and can struggle against elite ball carriers in space.
Longwell is flanked by junior linebacker Nicholas Rinaldi, who has been eclectic as of late, recording a sack in each of his last three games. So far he’s racked up eight pressures, three sacks, and 12 tackles this year, leading the team in sacks.
Secondary
The strength of this secondary is in their safeties that play all over the field in nickel dime and base packages — Randon Fontenette, CJ Taylor, and De’Rickey Wright.
Fontenette, a sophomore, acts as a hybrid safety/linebacker, lining up all over the field with 58 snaps inline, 68 in the box, 45 in free safety, and 224 in the slot. Fontenette is effective in both the pass rush and in coverage, with 28 tackles, three pressures, one interception, and a sack.
As a sophomore he can struggle in coverage and open field tackling. So far this season he leads the team in missed tackles with seven and allows a 68-percent reception rate by opposing receivers. Likely he will line up against Texas’ best slot receiver, which they like to switch frequently. Forntenette plays practically every defensive position on the field, and leads the defense in snaps with a whopping 399.
Flanking Forntenette, and closely following him in snaps is Taylor, a senior. Taylor also lines up in multiple different positions in different defensive sets. In the safety, slot and box, Taylor has racked up 21 tackles and an interception.
He is effective in coverage, but not elite, with a 61.5-percent reception percentage. His strength lies in his ability to limit receivers after the catch, allowing only 63 yards all season, and 22 after the catch.
Finally, Wright, who lines up similarly to Taylor, 86 in the box, 194 at safety, and 32 in the slot, but more often in the strong safety position. So far this year he has totaled 17 tackles, and an interception. Where he shines is in the open field, with only three missed tackles on the year.
Wright often jumps the ball in run defense and can be caught looking in pass coverage — he has allowed two touchdowns and a reception rate of 63 percent.
Overall
Injuries could be the deciding factor in this game for the Longhorns if the Commodores are without their star tight end Stowers and their RB1 Alexander. Stowers is the leading receiver for Pavia and if he is unable to suit up or if he even is not 100 percent, they will struggle in cultivating the slow drives that make them so effective on offense.
However, assuming they both will be good to go, the plan will be to manage their ability to move slowly down the field and win on third down. Their short gains with Pavia through the air and on the ground often put them in third and manageable. This Texas defense will have to force them into third and longs and get them off the field.
On defense, the Commodores are also missing many important pieces, but seemingly have good depth at the spots they lost. Their biggest strength is their ability to get to the quarterback with 16 sacks on the season. After last week where Quinn and Arch had zero time in the pocket, this Longhorns offensive line that is full of NFL talent will have to step up and keep the pocket clean.
They rush from multiple different positions, not just the edges. So Texas will have to draw up a scheme to protect Ewers, give him time to make plays down the field, and get the ball into the hands of Texas’ playmakers. Short throws, and dump offs may be the best move at first to get Bond, Golden, Blue, and the rest of the Longhorns skill positions out in space where this defense struggles to bring down elite ball carriers.
Overall, despite the bad loss to Georgia last week, Texas should come out angry because of it. The offensive line got embarrassed against Georgia and they cannot let that happen again. Vanderbilt is a team of destiny this year, but Texas trumps them in talent all over the field. It’s a get right game for the Horns.
Texas is favored by 18.5 points, according to FanDuel.