What the stats say about the renewal of the Lone Star Showdown.
The No. 3 Texas Longhorns heads to College Station for the first time in 13 years for the long-awaited renewal of the Lone Star Showdown against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field.
Since the turn of the century, the Horns are 9-3 against the Aggies, and in only one of those showdowns was Texas ranked lower going into Thanksgiving, which resulted in a loss. This weekend is exciting as equally as it is teeth chattering for us all. It is more than just bragging rights on the line as it’s been over a decade of hate brewing and smack talking.
Additionally, with the way the SEC has turned out this year, the winner will head to Atlanta to take on Georgia in the conference championship and a loss for Texas could lead it to being a questionable playoff bubble team.
Offense
Last week, we saw Texas look like more of itself, being able to heavily rely again on the run, pinnacling with an 8:22-minute touchdown drive consisting of 15 straight runs to put a dagger in the game. Running back Quintrevion Wisner was excellent in being a non-stop threat and quarterback Quinn Ewers was able to routinely find his targets in the first half.
However, we were all grimacing watching the back half of Ewers’ performance thanks to an ankle sprain, begging for backup Arch Manning to get subbed in just to give Ewers some rest and have a quarterback who can move around the pocket.
Below I have the summary statistics for the Horns from last weekend. Usage percentage refers to the number of snaps in which they contributed to the run or pass game, for instance a target or carry. Expected points is based on the down, distance, and field position. For instance, I displayed below the expected points trend for 1st and 10 versus 3rd and 20. Predicted points added (PPA, also seen as EPA for ‘expected’) then finds the difference in the result of the play and what was expected. The table gives the average PPA a player contributes from all their rushing/passing plays.
It was definitely a relief to see the run game become more prominent in last week compared to the games against Arkansas and Florida where they were seemingly eaten up in the backfield. Texas A&M doesn’t boast the same level of difficulty as Georgia or Arkansas neccessarily, but it will be yet another X-factor in allowing the rest of the offense to flourish.
Additionally, the Aggies do have a dangerous defensive front when it comes to the pass rush. To see their true levels of production, I found the difference in their total pressure outcomes and compared them to how much their opponents tend to give up from this season.
This is helpful because it lets us know that their numbers against McNeese State aren’t really that amazing given that they get thrashed by everyone. But what does jump out are their performances given their SEC schedule — Missouri, Mississippi State, and LSU were all confident wins for the Aggies and they were not a force to reckon with in the pass rush game. Even in their losses to South Carolina and Auburn, their defensive line did their job well and created unexpected levels of havoc.
Given the circumstances and environment of a renewed rivalry game, a sack on Ewers in the first couple of drives could certainly set the tone for the game. Texas was able to crawl out of that against Oklahoma, but the hole was too big against Georgia, so there is no knowing what kind of impact that could have.
To highlight specific players in the pass rush, we can look to jack end Cashius Howell (3 sacks), defensive tackle Shemar Turner (2), and defensive ends Nic Sourton (5) and Shemar Stewart (1.5). Behind them, will linebacker Taurean York (1.5) and mike linebacker Scooby Williams (0) are also great at rolling down and could easily seal an edge against Ewers.
They allow 128.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks 41st in the country. This is spearheaded by Stewart (12 tackles, 9 stops) and Sourton (15, 3). And they have yet another deep SEC rotation with nose tackles Albert Regis (18, 1) and DJ Hicks (4, 4), and defensive tackle Rodas Getachew-Johnson (6, 6).Strong safeties Marcus Ratcliffe (28, 14) and Dalton Brooks (17, 9) are also used effectively in the run fit.
A&M ranks 79th in the country in pass yards allowed at 227.7 per game. Brooks (2 pass breakups, 0 interceptions) and Ratcliffe (0, 3) are solid in coverage, but they are more reliant on corners Will Lee III (9, 1) and Jayvon Thomas (0, 1), plus nickel back Brian Mayes (3, 3) and free safety Bryce Anderson (2, 1).
While their secondary doesn’t really stand out tremendously in the numbers, something terrifying I found was that defensive linemen Howell and Regis have a combined 11 pass breakups. Given the number of interceptions Ewers has had that came from deflections off of linemen and his inability to move around in the pocket since the oblique injury, it could be a true recipe for disaster.
Defense
Marcel Reed seems to be the future at quarterback for Texas A&M after the injury to Connor Weigman early in their season. Weigman was able to come back temporarily, but after unimpressive performances against Mississippi State and LSU, they seem to be set on Reed going forward. Reed excels over the middle of the field in the 10-20 yard range, completing 20-of-32 passing for 451 yards and four touchdowns.
What is really fascinating with his numbers is outside of that region, he isn’t all that accurate, going a combined 19-of-53 passing on anything else past 10 yards. However, going deep for him seems to be a low-risk, high-reward scenario, as he has tallied five touchdowns and just two interceptions. Texas ranks second in the nation in interceptions per game at 1.5 at will be imperative for defensive backs Jahdae Barron, Andrew Mukuba, Malik Muhammad, and Jelani McDonald to bait him into dicey throws.
The Aggies rank 21st amongst FBS teams for how often they run the ball at 59.38 percent of the time. Given that percentage, they don’t utilize the screen game or play action at high rate. When under pressure, Reed’s numbers don’t drop as drastically as many other quarterbacks we have faced in SEC play. On those 76 dropbacks, he went 20-of-46 passing for two touchdowns, four turnover-worthy plays, two interceptions, and nine sacks.
Their X receiver is Noah Thomas who is their primary deep threat but has only reeled in 4-of-15 on throws longer than 20 yards. Three of those were touchdowns and two were contested which leads me to believe there are some accuracy issues with Reed. Thomas has hauled in 12-of-20 targets in the intermediate, combining for another three touchdowns. Z receiver Jahdae Walker and slot receiver Jabre Barber work underneath, often seeing their targets in the 0-10 yard range. Walker is 13-of-16 with average depth of target of 4.3 yards and 3.3 yards after the catch. Barber is 16-of-21 with an ADOT of 4.8 and 4.1 YAC.
In the backfield, Amari Daniels is the lead back after the season-ending injury sustained by Le’Veon Moss earlier this month. The Aggies have one of the most uniform distributions of running directions, attacking all gaps equally. Daniels does slightly favor going right as a whole but his most successful gaps are in between the left guard and center, and going off the tight end lined up on the right where he earns an impressive 6.79 yards after contact.
They use Reed in the read option where he has been able to get 6.87 yards per run attacking the ends. Furthermore, he has racked up 7.6 yards per carry on his 33 scrambles. Barryn Sorrell, Colin Simmons and Trey Moore will need to find a way to contain him and force the Aggies to turn to the air. Below are the PPA and usage metrics for the Aggies offense on the season.
Conclusion
I’ll be honest, I’m scared. Texas doesn’t have a good history against mobile quarterbacks over the years, and the Aggies’ pass rush could disrupt this game at any point. The Longhorns defense has been the savior time and time again and Texas is calling on them again if Wisner is unable to get going or Ewers throws an early pick. The Horns will have to get out to a lead to where the Aggies can’t afford to put the ball on the ground anymore. There is a lot riding on this game. One could say (I am not saying this), but some might say, that winning this first game back is more important than any playoff performance. My prediction for the game is 31-24.
Bonus awards
The finalists were listed for multiple collegiate football awards this week and I wanted to highlight some of the Horns and their cases to win. First up we have, Jahdae Barron who we have been screaming to earn the Jim Thorpe award for best defensive back for over a month now.
I have also included Travis Hunter for comparison as there was a massive grip from many that he wasn’t a finalist given he is in the running for the Heisman. But ultimately, it’s pretty clear across several metrics that this award belongs to Barron.
Next up is the Outland Trophy, which is awarded to the best interior lineman on either side of the ball. This is difficult to weigh as Kelvin Banks is the only offensive linemen of the finalists. To kind of compare them, I used their rankings amongst all Power Four players at their positions based on pass/run blocking for offense or pass rush/run stop for defense.
In terms of snubs, there wasn’t really a chance of a Longhorn getting picked for Doak Walker award for running backs given the performance by Wisner and Jaydon Blue and or Biletnikoff award for wide receivers given the time that Isaiah Bond missed. However, I do believe Anthony Hill was snubbed from at least being named a finalist for the Dick Butkus Award for the nation’s best linebacker.
Seeing Danny Stutsman picked as a finalist was definitely upsetting and Jalon Walker has also missed time, but it’s hard to see Hill winning over Schwesinger or Paul Jr.
Unfortunately, as great of a season as tight end Gunnar Helm has had, his efficiency numbers are doing the heavy lifting when compared to the tight ends that were nominated. The number of targets was definitely the limiting factor for him.
