What the stats say about the matchup between the Longhorns and the Wildcats.
The No. 3 Texas Longhorns survived another week of some lackluster offense against the Arkansas Razorbacks only to be rescued by the stout defense again. As one of 13 teams left that control their own destiny to the playoffs, it is imperative that they not only run the table but finish the season out strong. We saw this in an outstanding performance against Florida but the Razorbacks practically shut down the run for the Horns.
Offense
As we take a deeper dive into how this game played out, quarterback Quinn Ewers had trouble finding the defense biting on the screens or runs because they became ineffective early on. Their front four and linebackers were able to provide quick pressure and a lot of the longer-developing plays just flat out couldn’t happen. Below are the PPA and usage metrics from last weekend’s game.
I would argue Texas has a spot in the conversation for RBU given the long lineage of backs we have seen over multiple generations. This year has seen some growing pains and already didn’t start out strong with CJ Baxter out for the season. Neither Jaydon Blue or Quintrevion Wisner look like they will be racking up a 1000-yard season and the inability to establish the run has been the Achilles heel in Sark’s offense.
You have Blue who is phenomenal in space, can kill with his speed on the outside, but has lacked patience in finding the gap, often taking a loss. On the other hand, Wisner has been great at determining the gap but isn’t as agile to get into that breakout territory, severely impacting the number of explosive runs the Horns have had on the year. There was a lot of pressure on freshman Jerrick Gibson to perform early on and he has shown sparks throughout the year, but it’s tough to turn to him when all else fails.
I pulled all backs who have at least 75 carries this year in the FBS and plotted their yards per attempt versus yards after contact on each attempt. This was just to get a better understanding of where the Texas backs rank compared to the top ones I have labeled from the rest of the nation.
Now this isn’t completely fair as some backs may be in better situations. I would argue that the expectations were high for the offensive line this year given their experience and playing time as a unit. But we if look at line yards per rush, which is how many yards within the first five can be attributed to the line, you will notice that Texas is far from what we’ve seen them do before. This time I have only included backs from Power Four teams just to be able to discern the data a bit better.
We can make the argument that Texas has gone up against some incredible run-stopping defenses in their SEC schedule along with Michigan’s talented line but ultimately, the numbers are still disappointing. It’s clear that the line creates better opportunities for their backs to succeed and you can see that most talented backs live up their expectation.
The only exception of the ones I have found so far has been Damien Martinez who transferred from Oregon State to Miami, but their passing offense is one of the best in the nation and doesn’t seem to be slowed down nearly as much. Meanwhile, Kaleb Johnson and Isaac Brown are both putting up insane numbers and their lines are just about average in amongst P4 teams.
The Horns will luckily get a break in the run game as Kentucky doesn’t boast the same amount of depth that Florida and Arkansas had. The Wildcats rank 54th in rush yards allowed per game at 133.4. Their best talents in the run game come from outside the front four needing to roll down and provide help, such as strong safety Ty Bryant (9 tackles, 3 stops), field cornerback Jonquis Hardaway (9, 2) and Mike linebacker Jamon Dumas-Johnson (20, 11). On the line, their most consistent run stopper has been defensive tackle Deone Walker (20, 16).
The pass rush in this game will be a much scarier scenario. Their front rotation consist of defensive ends Tre’vonn Rybka (29 tackles, 3 sacks) and Octavius Oxendine (13, 3), nose tackle Keeshawn Silver (21, 1) and the aforementioned Walker (32, 1.5). Plus, they have a deep pull of edge rusher/ sam linebackers which include JJ Weaver (24, 5), Steven Soles Jr (5, 1) and Noah Matthews (5, 0).
Kentucky ranks 28th in pass coverage, allowing just 188.5 yards per game. Their secondary is led by field corner Hardaway (2 pass breakups, 2 interceptions), and boundary corners DJ Waller Jr (2, 0) and Terhyon Nichols (5, 0), but both are unlikely to play this weekend. Complementing them are will linebacker D’Eryk Jackson (3, 1), who may will also be out due to injury, nickelback Zion Childress (1, 0), free safety Jordan Lovett (1, 2) and strong safety Kristian Story (0, 1).
Defense
I literally have no more comments to make. I was initially worried about the development of the defensive front with the departure of Bo Davis to LSU, but Barryn Sorrell and Colin Simmons are demons in the pass rush, plus Alfred Collins and Jermayne Lole have broken out as true gap eaters in the run game. Jahdae Barron should already have the Thorpe Award in his hands, and Michael Taaffe should be on the shortlist for the Burlsworth Trophy.
There has been an incredible amount of outrage around the AP and CFP polls, but I am going to defend them and say it’s been quite difficult to rank these teams just given how the SEC has played out. If we were just going off just the following facts it would be easier:
- Bama and Ole Miss beat Georgia
- Kentucky upsets Ole Miss and takes Georgia to a close game
- Vanderbilt and Tennessee beat Bama
- Arkansas and Georgia beat Tennessee
- Texas beats Arkansas and Vanderbilt
But the massive wrench, the paper shredder, the pie to the face, is Georgia winning in Austin. It’s impossible to discern how the rest of the teams should align.
Texas has received a lot of flak for having a weak schedule, but I probably have the same sentiment as a lot of fans where it’s not our fault that Michigan and Oklahoma ended up crumbling. Thus, I compared the strength of schedules for all 134 teams based on what was predicted before the season started, and what they are currently ranked now according to PFF. The labels are solely for the AP Top 25.
Hate all you want, Texas built a tough schedule, and it ended up being more difficult than expected too. Is it a top 10 in difficulty? Still no, but I don’t think that should be held against them until the almighty and holy SEC gauntlet hands them another loss and puts them in the same two-loss boat as everyone else. Georgia and Alabama are the only two SEC schools who have had it rougher than Texas. So any arguments of Tennessee, LSU, and Texas A&M having to tough it out can be dismissed. However, Ole Miss now deserves to be in the conversation with their smashing of Georgia.
Oregon has every right to be No. 1, but you could take the bait and say that the win over Ohio State is doing some heavy lifting. Of the Group of Five teams, Boise State remains the strong favorite to make the CFP (and Ashton Jeanty should get the Heisman, just my two cents).
Kentucky’s Brock Vandagriff is far from being the best quarterback in the conference, and has struggled throughout the entire season, including losses to Vanderbilt, Florida, and Auburn where he threw a combined two touchdowns and three interceptions for an average of 148 yards per game. He produces one of the highest rates of turnover-worthy plays even when he is kept clean and it only worsens when he is under pressure.
His interior linemen have been effective in pass blocking this year led by center Eli Cox and right guard Jalen Farmer but their weakest links are their tackles. Texas should be able to sufficiently scare him into making more mistakes through air but will have to worry about his ability to scramble, gaining an average of 8.7 yards on 18 plays.
Kentucky ranks 30th in the nation in rush percentage, putting the ball on the ground 56.9 percent of the time. Vandagriff has designed runs in their scheme, running through his tight ends lined up on either side, but finding a better YPC going right. Demie Sumo-Karngbaye is not to be slept on and supplements the read option game with most of his handoffs either aiming off the left tight end or the gap between the center and left guard. Jamarion Wilcox has a lighter frame but doesn’t see any deviation from the game plan in his running direction. He has more difficulty getting through that gap initially, but he has had a higher frequency of runs over 10 yards if he can just find daylight.
Receivers Dane Key and Barion Brown are the only consistent deep threats Vandagriff tries to throw to, but he is 6-of-17 passing and 3-of-9 passing, respectively, when attempting to connect with them over 20-plus yards. He is less accurate than the average SEC quarterback in the intermediate area (10-20 yards), throwing a combined 32-of-58 passing for four touchdowns and four interceptions.
Key is the most likely target you will see get the ball over the middle of the field in that intermediate area. The offense heavily relies on Vandagriff’s ability to throw easy short passes in third and long situations to Fred Farrier II or Sumo on a Texas route. Tight ends Josh Kattus, Khamari Anderson, and Jordan Dingle have a combined 19 catches on the season, so if you see them, you are almost always expecting run. Below are the PPA and usage metrics for Kentucky’s offense on the season.
Conclusion
Texas has a slightly different kind of opponent they are facing this week with Kentucky being built more like Vanderbilt given where their strengths lie. I know the defense will be stellar again, making sure to be pesky in the run game early on so that the secondary can clamp down when the Wildcats desperately needs to pass.
The return of wide receiver Isaiah Bond for the offense was promising, but we need to see Ewers be able to connect more consistently with his receivers outside of Matthew Golden and throw fewer pickable balls. Hopefully, the ground game can find some breathing room after being bottled up the last two weeks and it would sure be nice to see a game where we are confident about the Horns on all fronts. I think a solid prediction for Saturday is 31-13.