What the advanced metrics say about Saturday’s matchup in Fayetteville.
The passing game for the now-No. 3 Texas Longhorns looked unstoppable last weekend against a weakened Florida Gators team in a 49-17 win in Austin. Quinn Ewers looked more confident in a well needed performance going into the final stretch of the regular season where the Longhorns need to win out. Tennessee could cement its spot in the SEC championship with a win over Georgia this weekend otherwise it might be LSU. Despite all the chaos last Saturday, Texas still needs to run the table to make it in and that continues this weekend at Arkansas at 11 a.m. Central.
Offense
The return of wide receiver Isaiah Bond was a massive game changer for the Horns, not only in the end around, but specifically in the screen game. Bond has a knack for making big plays with the ball in his hands. The table below shows how all receivers performed on catches behind the line of scrimmage. YPRR (yards per route run) stands for yards per route run, and tends to give a more accurate depiction of efficiency compared to yards per catch, but in this case, they are equal as all receivers were 100 percent on their catches.
Bond has also been an excellent option to have in the slot so that Matthew Golden, DeAndre Moore, and Ryan Wingo can play out wide. The backs were also able to have fun in the pass game last weekend but struggled to gain any momentum on the ground given the Gators’ tough defensive front. Luckily, Florida’s secondary couldn’t keep up, but neither Jaydon Blue nor Quintrevion Wisner have been able to develop into an S -ier runner between the tackles this season, which could be a concern when Texas gets into the playoffs. Below are the PPA and usage metrics from the game (excluding garbage time).
In the pass rush, their only standout players for Arkansas are defensive ends Landon Jackson (4.5 sacks) and Nico Davillier (1). Their run-stopping ability is functionally solid throughout their entire defense. Jackson (23 tackles, 18 stops) is also their best run stopper, followed by nose tackle Eric Gregory (18, 14) and defensive tackle Cameron Ball (15, 14) on the line. Behind them, mike linebacker Xavian Sorey Jr (35, 29), and will linebacker Brad Spence (13, 11) are great at eating up the rest of the gaps.
And lastly, their secondary consists of corners Marquise Robinson (5, 4), Hudson Clark (0, 0), and Jaheim Singletary (3, 0). Free safety TJ Metcalf (10, 3), who is related to DK, strong safety Larry Worth (16, 9), and nickel back Doneiko Slaughter (16, 5) also put up decent numbers. However, in the passing game only Robinson (7 pass break ups, 0 interceptions), Metcalf (4, 3), and strong safety Jayden Johnson (4, 1) have been able to distinguish themselves this season.
After assessment of their defensive personnel, it seems like this game will break down like last weekend. There will be a struggle to run the ball, but the Texas receiving weapons outmatch their secondary quite well. I do think our receiving corps is also better than that of Tennessee’s which struggled to get yards through the air against the Razorbacks in Week 5.
Defense
The Texas secondary remained elite through another week, so let’s turn towards the other facets of the defense, specifically the defensive front. I first analyzed the pass rushing grades for the line (minimum 60 snaps this season) and I separated the graphs out based on whether they are edge rushers or interior lineman since the production varies. Win Rate measures the percentage of passing plays where the player can win their matchup and move past the line of scrimmage, and pressure rate is the percentage of plays on which they can generate pressure.
The size of the scatter point is correlated to the number of passing snaps they’ve played, and the red, blue and green lines represent the 20th, 50th, and 80th percentiles respectively for each metric.
All Longhorns tackles and edges rank above average in their win rate and pressure rates. Jack end Barryn Sorrell stands out with a whopping 15-percent win rate on his snaps and generating pressure 10.3 percent of the time. Defensive tackle Vernon Broughton has the best win rate amongst the tackles at 9.7 percent and his pressure rate is above average at 3.6 percent. In recent years, we’ve seen a struggle to convert pressures into sacks and fumbles, but the Horns have been able to force opposing quarterbacks into a lot more turnover-worthy plays this year.
Below, I have constructed similar graphs but focusing on run-stopping ability. Stop Rate is the percentage of plays in which the player contributed to ending the run, and average depth of tackle is how far the back was able to get past the line of scrimmage.
This will ultimately be the limiting factor for the Texas defense — edge Colin Simmons leads at a 12.1-percent stop rate, but apart from him, the defensive ends aren’t contributing as much to stops. However, their ability to stuff when it does happen looks great. For the tackles we run into a different problem where they are targeted often up the middle, and struggle to keep opposing backs underneath 2.5 yards.
Arkansas quarterback Taylen Green loves to launch the ball downfield often, completing 19-of-44 passes for six touchdowns, five turnover-worthy plays, and two interceptions. His most targeted zone is over the middle in the 10-20 yard range where he’s gone 26-of-40 passing, tallying three touchdowns and three interceptions. He has one of the smallest dropoffs in production when under pressure compared to other quarterbacks the Horns have faced this season and this is largely due to his athleticism and ability to scramble. Sealing the edge or putting a spy on him will be crucial to prevent him from sneaking yards underneath the deep coverage. He is currently dealing with a knee injury, but is expected to play after being able to rest with a bye last week.
Out wide, Andrew Armstrong is their star do-it-all receiver whom Green trusts to be able get separation on any route and go up for 50/50 balls as well. Sometimes, Isaiah Sategna is sent deep instead given his speed allowing Armstrong to work over the middle. Tight end Luke Hasz sees the majority of his targets under 10 yards and he isn’t really fast enough after the catch.
In the backfield, Ja’Quinden Jackson is their go-to back. The Texas and Utah transfer has taken 73 of his 103 attempts either straight up the gut behind the center or off of a tight end, showcasing his two-dimensional ability. His most productive target is off the left tight end, accumulating 163 yards on 15 attempts. Braylen Russell sees a very similar distribution of handoffs regarding the gaps, but has just been less effective as the second option and is questionable with an injury. If they need to rotate their backs further, Rodney Hill is used for runs in between the tackles while Rashod Dubinion is their speedy outside option. Below are the PPA and usage metrics for the Razorbacks.
Conclusion
If we take Tennessee out of their data set, the Arkansas schedule so far makes complete sense. Blowout losses to LSU and Ole Miss and a narrow loss to Texas A&M provides an accurate depiction of the defense for this team. However, everybody is going to play their best game against a program as beloved as Texas, and there is no love lost here as well.
Texas struggled to slow down Diego Pavia and Vandy which allowed that game to remain close. The Horns will need to force the ball into the air on defense and ensure they can get new downs via passing on offense. We have seen them be shaky in both matters this year. They must continuously replay that mantra “capable of anything, entitled to nothing,” and not assume it’s a free path to Atlanta to have another strong weekend. I am predicting a score somewhere close to 31-14.