How the Horns stack up against the Roadrunners.
I am going to be honest with y’all, I was holding my breath up until about the eight-minute mark in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s 31-12 win over the then-No. 10 Michigan Wolverines by the then-No. 3 Texas Longhorns in Ann Arbor.
We’ve experienced enough blown leads, some even under Sark, to where I was having trouble enjoying what we were witnessing until the final whistle blew and seeing the stadium gradually turn from maize to our lovely burnt orange. What a statement win for the Horns, and now it seems as though they are being respected as a top-tier team along with Georgia and Ohio State. This week they take on UTSA with the current spread at -34.5.
Offense
I apologize to Gunnar Helm, I was not familiar with your (receiving) game. There was a lot of talk about Alabama transfer Amari Niblack being the better pass-catching replacement for Ja’Tavion Sanders while keeping Helm in his run-blocking role. But Helm was able to showcase his skills with seven receptions for 98 yards and a touchdown. He currently leads all SEC tight ends in receiving yards, yards after catch, and explosive plays.
Quinn Ewers added a solid exhibit to his Heisman portfolio, throwing 24-of-36 and racking up three touchdowns. I think the biggest factor in last week’s game was the play calling from Sarkisian along with Quinn’s composure on third down. Let’s just take a look at his third down plays from the first half when the Horns were a bit more aggressive.
I think this set alone against a team where defense was their best asset is the most impressive. This is also a great example of EPA or PPA which I use weekly. Ewers went 5-of-7 passing on third downs when the crowd was still roaring and delivered way more than what the average quarterback would have done in those situations (given down, distance, and yard line). Furthermore, last season he finished 18th amongst 106 starting quarterbacks in passer rating when under pressure (he is currently 19th this year and I believe this number will go up given the remaining schedule). This clutch ability is going to be what improves his case for the Heisman, the team’s chances at a natty, and his draft stock. Cam Williams and Kelvin Banks also improved their cases going up against a formidable defensive line and are the only remaining tackle duo in the SEC to not allow a sack.
The line was able to generate just 2.4 line yards per rush (how much they contribute in opening the run game between the line of scrimmage and five yards out), but that is up against what could arguably be the best defensive line the Horns face all season. I am going to be looking forward to them improving in this metric over the next two weeks as even averaged with the game against Colorado State, the Horns’ offensive line yards ranks 15th in the SEC (South Carolina being the only team lower).
But no worries, running backs coach Tashard Choice and the depth of the running back room showcased that line yards won’t hold them back. Even after Jaydon Blue limped off the field early in the game, Tre Wisner and Jerrick Gibson each stepped up to the plate, and chipped away at the Michigan defense bit by bit, nothing flashy, but steady and strong. This was also later capped off with an amazing swing around to the freshman wide receiver Ryan Wingo which was eerily reminiscent of Xavier Worthy’s first touch and touchdown with the Chiefs last Thursday. Below are the PPA and usage statistics for the Longhorns from Week Two.
Up front for UTSA, interior lineman Brandon Brown (5 tackles, 2 stops) and Joe Evans (1, 1), along with edge Ronald Triplette (6, 3), are their best run stoppers. Mike linebacker Kendrick Blackshire (6, 1), who initially transferred to Texas after two years at Alabama, also does a solid job at tracking opposing backs. And strong safety Ken Robinson (14, 8) frequently rolls down. They are one of the top teams right now in preventing the run, only allowing 66.5 yards per game on the ground, but their strength of schedule ranks 75th after Week Two.
Even though it was against weaker offensive lines, Triplette (6 tackles, 0 sacks) and will linebacker Jimmori Robinson (7, 2) have been consistently strong in the pass rush game and should not be slept on. The Roadrunners also like to send varying corners screaming off the edge from time to time.
Coverage is their weaker point, allowing over 300 yards through the air from Texas State. Owen Pewee (2 pass breakups, 0 interceptions) who plays the money backer, a hybrid safety/linebacker position, is their best player overall in pass coverage, while their secondary is quite lackluster. The only notable players are corners Syrus Dumas (0, 0) and Zah Frazier (0, 0), plus free safety Elliott Davidson (1, 0).
Defense
A glaring issue for Texas last year was not being able to convert pressures into sacks. Although they ranked fourth amongst the 134 FBS teams in total pressures generated, their pressure-to-sack ratio (P2S) was tied for 11th worst in the league at just 11.2 percent. The graph below aims to visualize this disparity. I labeled some other Power Five teams with even worse ratios in red.
SMU, Florida State, and UCLA are the only teams ahead of Texas in total pressures and you can see that the conversion to sacks is much more efficient than average for them. Texas A&M actually ranked first in P2S with a rate of 24.8%. Freshman edge Colin Simmons caused some serious chaos with six pressures off of a 37-percent win rate last weekend. While his potential to turn into a top-tier edge defender is promising, he has the lone sack for the Horns this season, putting the current P2S ratio for the team at just 6.7 percent.
There is an added element to this as pressures often force quarterbacks into turnover-worthy plays. We saw that with the first interception grabbed by safety Andrew Mukuba after Michigan quarterback Davis Warren aimed to squeeze the ball into double coverage while the Texas secondary was sitting on third and short. This secondary, when aggressive, can be really promising as we saw in the game against Alabama last year. I believe the issue still lies when having the lead late in the game, and playing overly conservative, keeping everything in front. It allowed Warren to get off a couple of throws to tight end Colston Loveland later in the game even after scrambling out of the pocket. The Horns are loaded with talent — the whole roster proved that in this showing — and we may need to trust corners Muhammad, Barron, and Gilbeau to be able to cover in clutch situations.
The UTSA offense is led by quarterback Owen McCown, son of Josh McCown, the current quarterbacks coach for the Minnesota Vikings. He saw some playing time behind San Antonio legend Frank Harris last year, and was very efficient in the short ball game. So far this year he has completed 62.3 percent of his passes for 445 yards and three touchdowns. After popping off Week One against Kennesaw State, he struggled against Texas State in the I-35 showdown, throwing 10-of-23 for just 105 yards. Although it’s small sample set, he tends to perform better in straight drop backs over play action and he takes bigger shots downfield when doing so as well. However, being a quarterback with less experience just like Warren, he has yet to figure out how to handle pressure, having one of the most egregious splits in performance when blitzed versus not.
He is surrounded by two solid threats out wide with Willie McCoy who he has connected with 2-of-5 times in the 20-plus yard range so far. Devin McCuin is their WR1 who is often utilized in the short game, and in screens given his agility with the ball in his hands. Tight ends Patrick Overmyer and Houston Thomas coming into the game are a good indicator the Roadrunners are looking to pass as they do on almost 60 percent of their plays (ranking 18th-highest amongst all FBS). Tight end Oscar Cardenas has gotten some targets, but his strength is in run blocking.
UTSA also has used a plethora of backs so far this season. Robert Henry is their go to for running in between the tackles, while Kevorian Barnes comes in when they need speed outside. Below are the PPA statistics for the Roadrunners on the season.
Conclusion
Texas could be tested up front again given the UTSA run defense and if Sark chooses to rest Jaydon Blue for the week. I don’t necessarily have any worries that the Horns will be able to get the ground game going with Quintrevion Wisner and Jerrick Gibson, along with this dominant offensive line, but it just might be more difficult than anticipated. Even then, Texas can exploit UTSA through the air and allow the wideout room to do their thing as they have been pretty momentous to start the season in developing their chemistry, not to mention we got robbed of a DeAndre Moore Jr. touchdown celebration last week when it got called back.
Defensively, I see Texas being able to swallow up the run early on seeing how they were able to slow down the Edwards/Mullings combo last week. This will turn into UTSA needing to pass more often than they would like and giving the secondary ample practice in showcasing their skills. I honestly cannot remember the last time Texas has covered the spread for two games in a row, let alone three, but I am optimistic and hoping for something close to 49-6.