What the stats say about the matchup between the Longhorns and Bulldogs.
We are coming off a thrilling win at the Cotton Bowl last weekend, marking the third time the Texas Longhorns have won against the Oklahoma Sooners in the past eight years, and head coach Steve Sarkisian’s second win against that ugly team during his tenure. It seems the Longhorn fanbase is split evenly based off Quinn Ewers’ rusty start to the game. Some are saying that despite Ewers having one of the roughest first halves in his career, the rest of the team is built so well that it didn’t really matter. The boat I am in is that I wonder if the rest of the team will be enough for Georgia this upcoming weekend, a team that is clearly in a different weight class than an Oklahoma team with no passing offense.
Offense
I certainly did not think that Texas would experience its first big run, let alone two, against the Oklahoma front seven. The PA announcer kept mispronouncing Tre’s last name as “Widener”, but you might just call him that considering how much he was able top to open up the run game. Wisner deserved the game ball with his ability to find the gap, but it also came from tremendous effort by the surrounding skill players. Silas Bolden outran five Sooners to recover the fumble for a touchdown, and Ryan Wingo made a key block twenty yards up field to make sure Wisner would see the end zone. It has been extremely pleasing to see everyone on the field be committed to the run.
Even once Quinn got his passing going, he was only able to complete 3-of-10 passes that were 10-plus yards downfield. While the offensive line has done a stellar job at keeping Ewers clean, the disguised coverages that Oklahoma was showing early on were enough to get Ewers to continue to hesitate. Below are the PPA and usage metrics for last week’s game.
This experienced offensive line has shown its resiliency and ability to continue to run the ball into the face of the toughest fronts and this will be game changer against Georgia. In Georgia’s recent dominance, their run stopping ability has been the X factor in hampering opponents from gaining any kind of momentum. However, we are seeing that their line isn’t quite what it used to be. Amongst 134 FBS teams, they were eighth in 2019, third in 2020, first in 2021, 11th in 2022, 20th in 2023, and now 35th currently.
Nevertheless, the main run-stopping threats coming from the Georgia defensive line included defensive tackle Christen Miller (10 tackles, 8 stops), nose tackle Nazir Stackhouse (4,1), jack end Chaz Chambliss (9, 6), and defensive end Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins (7, 7).
Behind them mike linebacker CJ Allen (13, 12) and will linebacker Smael Mondon Jr. (11, 4) are more effective. There were many snaps in the Mississippi State where they are cleaning up missed tackles from the front four. Lastly, strong safety Malaki Starks (13, 5) is one of the best all-around defenders and is excellent in his tracking of backs.
In the pass rush, the only two to generate high win rates and consistent pressure were mike linebacker Jalon Walker (22 tackles, 1.5 sacks) and Chambliss (15, 1).
Lastly the coverage battle will be one of the most important. Georgia is great in the air with a talented secondary. Below is a graph showcasing the number of yards total each DB has given up, split into before and after the catch. The labels represent the number of catches/targets for them.
The two players at the STAR position (hybrid safety and outside linebacker) plus Malaki Starks (0 pass breakups, 1 interception) are most often playing in the slot. This could spell trouble in shutting down Isaiah Bond or DeAndre Moore Jr. We are still waiting to hear more on whether Bond will be available after landing awkwardly on his ankle last week. The hope would be that Wingo and Matthew Golden’s speed can be beat their corners out wide. Their cornerback position does seem to drop off in caliber after Julian Humphrey (2, 0). However, free safeties KJ Bolden (0, 1) and Dan Jackson (2, 1) are ballhawks.
Underneath, linebackers Mondon (2, 0) and Walker (1, 0) are still a force, which provides an appropriate matchup for tight end Gunnar Helm who is currently the best at his position in the SEC. Mondon has been dealing with a foot injury the past two games and his return is still up in the air.
Defense
Texas has been extremely productive defensively so far this season. While they might not have the number one run stopping front, we should be elated to see that they have been phenomenal in multiple categories, they are 16th in run defense, fifth in pass rush, and first in coverage. During the bye week, I detailed more about the stellar cornerback and safety duos that have led to that treasured top rating.
This week I wanted to focus on the importance of the pass rush. Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. was able to make the correct decision in their read option nine times out of 10 last week, which allowed Oklahoma to stay relevant early on and move the chains. As Texas was able to mix up pressure looks, blitzes, and stunts, it became more difficult for Hawkins to choose correctly.
Georgia’s offensive line is stout for sure (they rank sixth in the nation in pass blocking), below is a graph detailing all players who have played significant snaps so far this season. You will notice that they do a stellar job at keeping Carson Beck clean. The label marks the percentage of times they don’t allow pressure of any kind. This data only accounts for true pass sets (no screens or play action).
Center Jared Wilson and right guard Tate Ratledge have both been plagued with injuries this year which could impact what was thought to be a bulletproof Georgia offensive line. In comparison, below is the amount of pressure the Texas defense has been able to generate. The next best pass rush Georgia has faced was Bama, which currently ranks 24th. This time the label is inverted marking the percent of plays the defensive player is able to generate pressure. Again this data is only off of true passing sets.
Carson Beck undoubtedly can deliver dimes as is clear in what we saw in the second half against Alabama. The issue, however, is that his PFF offensive grade has a very dramatic drop-off in production when he is pressured. Below is a graph showcasing his performance comparison in his games so far this season. The labels mark his passing completions/attempts in those scenarios. They don’t paint the whole picture as yards, sacks, scrambles, touchdowns, and interceptions are also factored into the PFF grading.
It seems that apart from the dominant opener against Clemson, Beck hasn’t been able to stay calm and produce when under pressure. Furthermore, below shows all opposing quarterbacks Texas has faced and how the pressure Texas produced in those games affected them.
Looking at Beck’s assets surrounding him, Dominic Lovett is his go-to guy, hauling 19 of his 27 catches either behind the line of scrimmage or underneath 10 yards. Dillon Bell plays well in the next region up finding most of his targets between zero and 20 yards. Arian Smith is utilized in a similar fashion to Wingo, either in the screen game or sending him long. Georgia when down, will move to the five wide empty set look and aim to finesse their way out which certainly worked in the second half of the Bama game. The question will be whether Jaydon Guilbeau and Gavin Holmes can step up as the extra defensive backs in these looks, especially with safety Derek Williams now out for the season.
In their backfield, Florida transfer Trevor Etienne runs pretty evenly through every gap, but he has the most runs off the outside of the left tight end, tallying 60 yards on 14 attempts. His most efficient runs have been between the left guard and tackle for 67 yards on five attempts, and then off the right tackle for 72 yards on eight attempts. Etienne has seen roughly the same amount of production as Wisner this year in terms of advanced stat grading. Freshman Nate Frazier has seen a similar distribution in gaps. Branson Robinson has been their reliable power back for short down situations but he is now out for the year with an MCL injury he suffered against Mississippi State last weekend. Below are the PPA and usage metrics for their entire offense.
Conclusion
It has been a crazy season of college football where the tropes of the past five years are breaking. Who would have thought Alabama’s defense would be a concern, now giving up 94 points in their past 10 quarters? Georgia, the team with a solid foundation, always run-to-pass, now resorting to finessing their opponents through the air. And Texas, a team that previewed glimpses of amazing play in certain position groupings, finally being able to bring it all together, and with impeccable timing in their first year in the SEC.
The tides have certainly turned with Texas being the underdogs going into this game in the preseason and now people are expecting the most out of the Horns. Texas could see themselves in a hole again like they did against Oklahoma, but I believe in this defense to prevent the team from going down multiple scores early on. If the offense needs time to figure themselves out, they’ll get it, and it will be up to Ewers, Wisner, Wingo, and Helm to pick apart the weaknesses in Georgia’s defense, wherever they can find them. I am going to anticipate a score of 27-21.