The SEC for the Longhorns begins with a struggling 1-3 Bulldogs team at home against a backup quarterback.
The No. 1 Texas Longhorns enters the SEC with its inaugural matchup against the Mississippi State Bulldogs at home, and this could not be a more winnable game. State’s head coach Jeff Lebby in his first year with the Bulldogs already coming into this season with a host of transfers on both sides of the ball, but now is forced to start freshman Michael Van Buren IV at quarterback after veteran transfer from Baylor Blake Shapen suffered a season-ending shoulder injury last week against Florida.
However, despite this disparity in experience and continuity, Sarkisian is not going into this game lightly.
“[I have] a ton of respect for Coach Lebby,” Sark said. “They’ve got really good wideouts to where they’re a dangerous team. I think back to our first year it’s where they’re fighting, scratching, and clawing and they’re dangerous in that way.”
In his first year with the Bulldogs, Lebby has turned over the roster in the transfer portal and is still looking to develop the chemistry and continuity that comes from more time in a program. Starting off 1-3 with losses against Arizona State, Toledo, and Florida, the Bulldogs have certainly had some struggles under the new regime. Now with the loss of their starting quarterback, and back to back road games against No. 1 Texas this week and No. 2 Georgia next week, this is looking to be a tough opening season for Lebby’s first year with Mississippi State.
Offense
Offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay is unlikely to change the offensive playbook significantly with the loss of Shapen. With a true freshman under center in Michael Van Buren, the Bulldogs will emphasize ways to get their talented pass catchers involved and develop a running game to take the pressure off of Van Buren in his first start, but expect the signature wide splits for the wide receivers and plenty of run-pass options to get the ball out on the perimeter.
“You can do a lot with those splits,” senior defensive back Jahdae Barron said about the MSU offense. “run, RPO, things like that. They’ll count the box… if we have enough men in the box, [they’ll run] screen plays, perimeter, stuff like that.”
This will likely be the best way to get their talented slot receiver Kevin Coleman involved without overwhelming Buren in his first start. Coleman, their big tight end Seydou Traore, and their two running backs are the highlights of this offense, and the trick for Barbay will be how to get them involved with Buren now under center.
The offensive line returns no starters from last year and features four transfers. So timing and chemistry will already be a problem before adding a new freshman signal caller.
Quarterback
The Bulldogs started a familiar face under center this season. Senior transfer from Baylor, Blake Shapen. As the Longhorns made the shift to the SEC this year, so has the old Bears quarterback.
Despite a tremendous amount of promise coming out of high school, injuries have defined Shapen’s career throughout his time at Baylor and now early at Mississippi State. Last season, Shapen suffered a season-ending head injury with Baylor and now again the senior quarterback will be sidelined for the entirety of the year after a shoulder injury he sustained last week against Florida.
Freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr. will be the starter after stepping in for Shapen last week against the Gators. Buren threw for 100 yards, no touchdowns or picks with a QBR of 58.
Standing at 6’1, 195 pounds, the consensus four-star quarterback out of Baltimore led the Bulldogs on a 12-play, 75-yard drive ending in a garbage time touchdown to make the game 45-28. On the last drive of the game Buren showed more of his arm as the game came to a close, mostly passes under 10 yards, but he did hit two big completions to Creed Whittemore for 24 yards and Kelly Akharaiyi for 28 yards, showed his capability to find his guys further down the field.
247 Director of Scouting Andrew Ivins described Buren as “A battle-tested prep quarterback that has helped guide Baltimore’s St. Frances Academy to two straight top-10 finishes in the MaxPreps Top 25 while playing a national schedule.” Ivins continued to describe that Buren’s, “explosive lower half allows him to evade pressure and create both inside and outside of the pocket. Can generate plenty of velocity with a smooth stroke and consistently hit his spots with pace, especially when looking to attack the middle depths of the field. Has shown that he can connect on some deep shots, but not exactly a strength of his game and is prone to take some risks. Should be viewed as a dynamic signal caller that can coordinate RPOs and throw with some confidence on the move.”
With the injury to Shapen, the true freshman has been thrown into the fire, with his first start being against the number one team in the nation on the road. The Bulldogs certainly relied on the experience of Shapen to start the season, with 149 passing snaps compared to 98 rushing snaps, however with the true freshman thrown into action they may be forced to rely on the running game a bit more.
Running back
The Bulldogs seem to have a two-headed monster at running back with both scoring touchdowns on the ground last week against Florida— junior Johnnie Daniels (No. 20), and senior Davon Booth (No. 21) who have similar builds and play styles.
The Mississippi native Daniels stands at 5’10, 200 pounds with 32 carries for 258 yards and one touchdown on the season. Daniels is not your speedster, but with his big body and strong legs, he acts as a more traditional runner. He has a great ability to break tackles with seven on the season.
Daniels has an ability to break into the second level with seven rushes over 10 yards, but lacks that high-end speed to put the burners on defenders and break off for big runs with a season high of 18 yards.
Junior running back Booth transferred from Utah State this season after only one full year with the Aggies. Standing at 5’10, 205 pounds, Booth has carried the ball 36 times for 133 yards and two touchdowns.
Both backs seem to mimic each other not only in their tangible attributes, but also in their play style running primarily between the tackles and rarely running sweeps or pitches to the outside. Both around 5’10, 200 pounds, they are your traditional runners who can pick up yards to create manageable second and third downs for the offense.
This Bulldogs rushing attack up until this point has remained in the trenches with 70 percent of Daniels’ rushes being between the guards and 72 percdent of Booth’s between the guards.
Neither are used too heavily in the passing game with Daniels only acting as a pass catcher in one game against Toledo where he brought in three receptions for 38 yards. Booth however seems to be utilized a bit more with two games where he caught two balls each game.
They have gotten their wide receivers involved in the running game a bit, but nothing crazy. Kevin Coleman and Creed Whittemore have both been handed the rock this season, but only three times all year. One, however, was a reverse to Whittemore for a 41-yard gain.
With a rookie at quarterback, they may be used more in the passing game as either safety blankets and dump off passes or added protection in the backfield blocking for the young quarterback.
Wide receivers
The Bulldogs so far this season have a clear WR1 in junior Kevin Coleman (No. 3). Standing at 5’11, 180 pounds, the speedy slot receiver leads the offense in targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. 22 receptions on 27 targets for 287 yards and three touchdowns.
Coleman does practically all of his work in the slot with 94.3 percent of his snaps at that position. He relies on his speed and quickness to make things happen in the middle of the field and after the catch with 179 of his 287 yards happening after the catch.
Quick slants and crossing routes in the middle of the field are his bread and butter with half of his 22 receptions coming short and between the numbers for 193 yards and two of his three touchdowns. The speedy receiver will certainly be the first read for freshman quarterback Buren as the Bulldogs attempt to get something going in the short passing game.
The three receivers out wide that will complement Coleman are Jordan Mosley (No. 6), Mario Craver (No. 7), and Kelly Akharaiyi (No. 1), all three receiving a healthy dose of targets this season.
Mosley follows Coleman on the stat sheet with 13 receptions on 15 targets for 202 yards and two touchdowns. The junior from Alabama does not have the largest frame at 6’0, 195 pounds, but has sure hands with zero drops on the season. Coleman has sure hands in the intermediate game, bringing down both of his contested catch targets.
So far this season Mosley has done 100 percent of his work on the left side of the field with zero receptions or even targets coming from the outside right. He has scored both of his touchdowns on deep balls 20-plus yards to the outside left, so look for Mosely to continue his work on the left side of the field on streaks, bubbles, quick outs, and comeback routes.
Craver is the deep threat option. Standing at only 5 ‘10 and 170 pounds, the speedster flies down the field from the X or Y position with the highest average depth of target on the team with 19.6 yards. He is only a freshman, but the four-star prospect out of Alabama has been thrust into the lineup immediately due to his high end speed and second gear in deep and medium route running.
Craver has brought in eight receptions for 192 yards and two touchdowns. Five of which came on a pass over 10 yards, with four attempts over 20, including an impressive 45 yard touchdown against Toledo in Week Three.
Tight ends
Mississippi State this season has utilized their big British tight end as a pass catcher often this season. JuniorSeydou Traore has a massive frame and can catch the pill. At 6’4, 235 pounds,Traore has brought in 12 receptions for 121 yards this season.
Traore follows only Coleman for targets on the season with a whopping 20. With two drops on the year and only bringing in 12 of his 20 targets, he could improve on his pass catching, but the big tight end is a massive part of this passing game.
Traore lines up inline with the offensive line 40 percent of the time and in the slot 44 percent of the time, but does most of his work as receiver.
With a rookie quarterback under center, Traore will likely become the new safety blanket for Bruen in the short passing game, with 10 of his season receptions already coming within 10 yards. However, he also has potential as a deep threat, with six targets beyond 10 yards, two of which were beyond 20.
Offensive line
Mississippi State has a big offensive line with three juniors and two seniors, although all but one played at a different school last year. Junior right tackle Albert Reese is the only starting offensive lineman that returned from last season where he was only a rotation player.
Junior left tackle Makylan Pounders (6’5, 310 pounds) transferred from Memphis, junior left guard Jacobe Jackson (6’6, 320 pounds) came from Texas Tech, senior center Ethan Miner (6’2, 305 pounds) came from North Texas, and senior right guard Marlon Martinez (6’5, 320 pounds) transferred from LSU.
Continuity and chemistry is always a factor in good offensive line play and it’s something that this front five simply does not have. Along with a rookie signal caller under center, the lack of cohesion might create some woes for this Mississippi State offense to start off this game.
Despite this lack of continuity from the big uglies, this offensive line is massive with an average weight of 317 pounds and a level of experience across the board. As a unit they have only allowed four sacks, but also given up 25 hurries on the quarterback in just four games against less than dominant defensive fronts.
The size of this offensive line should be a challenge for a Texas defensive front in a new season without T’Vondre Sweat and Byron Murphy. With the talent on the outside from Trey Moore and the young superstar Collin Simmons, this Texas defense should be able to outrun this Bulldog front around the edge.
Defense
The Mississippi State defense runs primarily a 3-3-5 highlighting their talented linebackers and defensive backs. They have trouble getting to the backfield and have only created one turnover in the air, but have an ability to fly to the ball and make open field tackles.
They have three leaders on all three levels, and those being sophomore safety Isaac Smith who leads the team in tackles, junior transfer from UCF Brandon Jennings at edge and the heart and soul of the Bulldogs defense, junior middle linebacker Stone Blanton.
Mississippi State defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler likes to focus on plugging the running lanes, which can open up the playbook to big shots downfield.
They have allowed 30-plus points in their last three games and 40-plus in their last two against Toledo and Florida, so nothing that this Texas team can’t handle. Sarkisian should be able to dial up some big plays, as Ewers or Manning should have plenty of time in the pocket to get the ball to this stellar group of wide receivers.
Defensive line
In the 3-3-5 the three main guys for the Bulldogs up front are senior defensive lineman Sulaiman Kpaka (6’3, 300 pounds), freshman Trevion Williams (6’4, 295 pounds), and freshman Kai McClendon (6’2, 305 pounds). With two freshmen on the front three for the Bulldogs, they rely heavily on their senior Kpaka and their outside linebackers to rush the quarterback and stop the run.
Kpaka joins Mississippi State after three years with Purdue as the only experienced defensive lineman among this group of freshmen. He has yet to record a sack this season, after only two in his three years with Purdue, so he leaves a lot to be desired as a pass rusher. Although he lacks speed for his position, his big frame acts as the Bulldog’s first plug when trying to clog running lanes.
Freshman Travion Williams has a tremendous amount of potential, but has been thrust into the fire as a freshman going up against SEC interior linemen. The consensus four-star Mississippi native played multiple positions in high school on both sides of the ball and has sneaky athleticism for his size. He is still very green and has trouble breaking out of the grips of more experienced offensive lineman.
This defensive line at this point has acted more as walls for run support, the true pressure in rush and pass defense will likely come from the linebacking core.
Linebackers
The biggest concern for Texas from this defensive front will come off the edge from Brandon Jennings. At 6’3 230 pounds, he is not the ideal size for an edge in the SEC, but he can fly to the backfield, and continues to improve in his first season with the Bulldogs after transferring from Maryland to UCF and now Mississippi State this year.
Jennings primarily lines up on the right side, at right outside linebacker coming off the weak side. However, with Kelvin Banks at left tackle, he should be relatively maintained. Still learning his role in this Bulldogs defense, he has yet to get home against opposing quarterbacks, and this Saturday will likely not be an easy task for him to record his first sack against this talented Texas offensive line.
The leader of this defense is Blanton. Aside from having a sick first name, the Mississippi native controls the middle of the field in both coverage and run support.
Blanton leaves something to be desired in the open field, with only five solo tackles on the season, but the second level of this Bulldogs defense does well to plug running lanes and stop opposing rushing attacks.
Defensive coordinator Coleman Hutzler mainly utilizes Blanton as a tool to assist his shaky defensive front, shooting gaps in run defense and locking down the middle of the field. He has sneaky athleticism for his size and his experience in this defense gives him an ability to read offensive sets and make plays in the open field.
Defensive secondary
The majority of the tackles for this defense have come from the secondary this season. Partially because opposing offenses are able to frequently make it to the second level, forcing the defensive backs to make open field tackles to stop big plays. However this is also because the defensive backs are used creatively in run support.
Sophomore safety Isaac Smith leads the team in tackles with a wild 51 from the strong safety position, 19 of which he did solo. Smith is easily the best in the open field on this team with a tackling grade by PFF of 85.5. However, he leaves receivers on islands and can give up catches. This season he has been targeted 10 times and has allowed seven receptions.
So basically he allows receptions, but can bring them down after. At the strong safety position he lines up in coverage, but also in the box and often in the slot in cover one man. Smith is listed as probable for Saturday’s game/
Sophomore cornerback Brice Pollock seems to play every down for this defense, and has been thrust into a huge role for the bulldogs in only his second year in collegiate football. The consensus four-star prospect out of Georgia has tremendous potential, but is still clearly adjusting to the speed of D1 ball.
This season he has allowed 11 receptions on 14 targets for 90 yards and two touchdowns, giving him a reception percentage of 78.6 percent against opposing pass catchers. He is the go to corner against opposing X receivers on the outside, so the experience and athleticism of Isaiah Bond should shine if they are matched up in one on ones.
This back end of the bulldogs can be exploited, with a reception percentage of 73 percent on the season against the likes of Toledo and Florida. So basically Sarkisian should be able to draw up some big plays to this talented group of weapons in the Texas arsenal.
Special Teams
The speedy slot receiver Coleman handles the punt return duties for the Bulldogs. Being arguably the best player on the team, it is a mitigated risk having him return punts, but his top-end speed makes him a threat in the return game. So far this season he has returned six punts for a total of 128 yards, including a long of 45 yards.
Sophomore kicker Kyle Ferrie handles the place-kicking duties. The converted soccer player has a career long of 49 yards, where he connected twice last season. This season he has gone 16-of-17 on extra points, and 2-of-3 on field goals, both between 20 and 29 yards.
Overview
For Texas’ introduction to the SEC, they could not have asked for a more manageable opponent. A rookie quarterback getting his first collegiate start, transfers all over the team, including four on the offensive line, a defensive line with two freshmen and a transfer starting, a defensive secondary that lets up a ton of yards and receptions, all under a first year head coach in Lebby.
The biggest strength of this team comes from their running backs and pass catchers. Although they have a big offensive line, they are all transfers and still developing chemistry, and now have to do the same with a rookie quarterback. The Bulldogs will likely rely on their two talented running backs to alleviate some pressure off Buren in his first start.
Texas has to shut down this running game early, and force the young quarterback to try and beat them through the air. If Texas can make Buren uncomfortable by getting to the backfield early and often, he will have trouble connecting with Coleman and his big tight end all day.
This can lead to easy turnovers and third and long situations for the Bulldogs offense, that will keep them off the field, and tire out this already shaky defense.
On offense, Texas should attack the Bulldogs through the air. Hutzler’s defense already lends itself to that as they focus primarily on plugging running lanes. But more importantly this secondary has too many holes in it for the likes of Isaiah Bond, Matthew Golden, and Johntay Cook to not feast.
Texas is favored by 37.5 points according to FanDuel, as they should be. This one should get ugly quick.