How the Longhorns and the Bulldogs match up.
The No. 1 Texas Longhorns enter SEC play on an easier note, hosting what could be the weakest team in the conference in the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Coming off an incredible set of non-conference games outscoring opponents a combined 190-22, the Horns will look to continue to tear the roof off in their offense before they head into some deadlier matchups in October against Oklahoma and Georgia.
Offense
Quarterback Arch Manning saw his ups and downs in his first start as a Longhorn, throwing for two touchdowns and two interceptions. While it was thrilling to see him frequently target the rapid receivers downfield, I had some questions on his decisions to squeeze the ball into tight coverage. Head coach Steve Sarkisian probably had a role to play in Manning’s lack of hesitancy to unleash the ball, but those small IQ plays add up. We’ve seen Quinn Ewers evolve into becoming a much calmer and more collected quarterback, opting for the check down, learning how to move his body in the pocket, and drastically decrease the number of turnover worthy plays. Arch has all the talent, it’s just a matter of honing the mentality and decision-making to become an elite quarterback. Below are the PPA and usage statistics for the Horns from last week’s game.
Jaydon Blue stole the show with 124 yards on 25 attempts for three rushing touchdowns and a receiving one. While the Longhorns might not have totally clear runaway candidate like Brooks or Bijan in past years, this backfield has shaped up quite well during non-conference play. While the offensive line is quite experienced, consistent, and highly graded in pass protection, I still wonder if the running game can be improved at all. The graph below shows the line yards generated per rush for the SEC schools, this is the yards that can be attributed to the offensive line in the 0-5 yard range. I am then comparing it the PPA from the team’s top running backs.
The trendline helps separate the running backs so you better observe how they are doing given their circumstances. Blue, Gibson, and Wisner are of no concern — they are constantly effective and phenomenal at finding gaps. South Carolina and Oklahoma seem to have offensive lines that might hold them back from the success they want this season. My caveat on the teams that are currently boasting 3.9 line yards is that their schedules have been weak. PFF currently has Ole Miss at 118th and Auburn at 102nd but Texas A&M is 43rd so their data could be legitimate. Kentucky’s run game looks solid now and is heavily relied on given their poor quarterback play. Meanwhile, Tennessee’s is looking quite dangerous, adding a concrete second dimension to their offense spearheaded by the freshman Nico Iamaleava. Mississippi State’s line yards look better than Texas but their SOS ranks 66th while ours is 11th.
The Bulldogs currently rank 119th in passing PPA allowed and 115th in rushing PPA allowed, spelling an SEC opener that could be fortunately similar in difficulty to the Group of Five schools Texas has played so far.
In the pass rush, their only adequately effective player has been the jack end Branden Jennings with one sack on the season. After that, there is a severe drop-off in the level of production from the rest of the front seven when it comes to providing pressure. Jennings (17 tackles, 6 stops) also holds a marginally decent run grade on the season as well. While none of their players stand out necessarily in stopping the run they have a decent rotation of consistent play from defensive ends Deonte Anderson (4, 1) and Demonte Russell (9, 7). Behind them, mike linebacker JP Purvis (13, 5), and will linebackers John Lewis (15, 5) and Zakari Tillman (9, 3) are reliable for wrapping up backs before they break free.
In coverage, mike linebacker Stone Blanton (1 pass breakup, 0 interceptions) along with corners Brice Pollock (3, 0) and Ray’Darious Jones (0, 0) have carried the team but the rest of the secondary seems to be a liability.
Defense
Texas has continued to show that it has retained its run-stopping ability from last year while improving heavily in the secondary. Even against run-heavy teams such as Michigan and UL-Monroe, they have been able to sniff out the direction almost every time except for what was probably the biggest play Texas gave up this year, the touchdown against UTSA.
Nevertheless, the graph below compares stuff rate, which is how often defenses stop the run from even crossing the line of scrimmage, and explosiveness allowed which measures the PPA allowed in explosive runs (12+ yards). The size of the point, similar to previous articles, is relative to the team’s strength of schedule, so you know how seriously to take their stats.
Texas is at the forefront of the SEC, with Kentucky being the only team that has had a higher stuff rate on a similar explosiveness allowed (and they looked great being able to stifle Etienne and Georgia as well). Ole Miss has yet to play anyone relevant which will change as they host Kentucky this weekend. Mississippi State, even with their weaker SOS, is not having a great time to start the year in their defensive run game.
A familiar face, Baylor transfer Blake Shapen started under center this year for Mississippi State, but he will miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury. Through the first three games, he loved launching it deep (20+ yards), going an impressive 10-of-17 passing, with five of his eight touchdowns coming from these as well. Shapen’s PFF grade drops from 91.5 to a miserable 44.6 when he is under pressure. On 43 dropbacks under pressure this season, he is 10-of-23 passing, with two drops, one interception, and 11 sacks.
True freshman Michael Van Buren Jr is set to start with redshirt freshman Chris Parson also available. Van Buren has only had 17 dropbacks on the season, all coming in garbage time in their loss against Florida, where he went 7-of-13 passing for 100 yards. Shapen struggled under pressure, and it would be easy to scare a true freshman in a similar manner. I would like to see Texas defensive coordinator Kwiatkowski send linebackers Anthony Hill or David Gbenda more often and allow the secondary to continue prove they can handle these receivers all on their own. Safety Derek Williams has been listed as doubtful for now so it will be interesting to see some more action from Jordon Johnson-Rubell as the third safety in the rotation after Michael Taaffe and Andrew Mukuba.
The Bulldogs’ offensive line ranks pretty well in pass blocking in the games they have played so far, allowing plays to develop for Shapen to launch it downfield. They really struggle generating any yards or gaps in the run game, so I can see Texas yet again forcing an opponent into passing more than they would like to.
In the backfield, their main rotation consists of Davon Curry and Johnnie Daniels who upon reviewing their games and stats so far, are functionally similar threats. The only difference maker is veteran Keyvone Lee who comes in as the power back in short and goal line situations, but Lee is currently out with injury. Regarding all of their handoffs, Mississippi State loves running the ball especially between the left guard and center, the right guard and center, and the right guard and right tackle, finding their most explosive plays in the latter.
Wide receiver Kevin Coleman Jr and tight end Seydou Traore catch the majority of their passes over the middle in the 0-10 yard range. Craver and Mosley are the speedster deep threats, though Coleman is also definitely capable to go long as well. Kelly Akhairyi is often the forgotten talent finding the gaps in the intermediate range (10-20 yards). Below are the PPA metrics for their roster on the season.
Conclusion
Quinn Ewers is still listed as questionable going to Week Five and I would like him to continue to rest. Arch Manning won’t have a problem being able to execute against the Bulldogs’ passing defense that, on paper, looks worse than UL-Monroe’s and UTSA’s, and this allows a quick turnaround to see if he can improve on his mistakes from last week. If all else fails, the backfield will be able to deliver as they have before and smash through Mississippi State’s weak run defense as well. I am eager to see some more havoc on the defensive end, racking up interceptions and sacks, given they will have the lack of experience in their quarterbacks. This could develop from some more aggressive play calling or seeing the continued growth of the younger stars on the defensive side of the ball for the Horns. Texas is favored by 37.5 points, according to FanDuel.