Crunch Time: Analyzing Texas’ third-down and red-zone performance vs. Arizona State

The Longhorns faced their share of challenges against the Sun Devils, but how did they fare in the game’s most pivotal moments?

In one of the most thrilling and high-stakes games of the Steve Sarkisian era, the Texas Longhorns managed to edge out a 39-31 victory over the Arizona State Sun Devils on Wednesday in the Peach Bowl in Atlanta.

A dramatic comeback by the Sun Devils, combined with missed opportunities by the Longhorns, forced the game into overtime as heart rates throughout Burnt Orange Nation soared. Quarterback Quinn Ewers delivered a season-saving touchdown on 4th and 13, connecting with wide receiver Matthew Golden after calling an audible at the line. In the second overtime, Ewers struck quickly with a pass to tight end Gunnar Helm, and the defense followed up with a game-sealing interception to secure the victory.

Texas survived and advanced, the most important takeaway from the game, but there remained stretches where the Longhorn offense stagnated. In this rendition of Crunch Time, we’ll take a dive into how Texas fared on third downs and in the red zone.

Third downs

5-of-13 (38.5 percent)

Photo by Butch Dill/Getty Images

The execution on third down was subpar — the 38.5-percent conversion rate is below the season average and slots similarly to the games against Arkansas and Georgia in the SEC Championship game. To make matters worse, Arizona State ranked 101^st with an opposing third-down conversion rate of 43.35 percent. The story for the Longhorns was an inability to routinely create third-and-manageable situations.

This struggle started with getting stuffed in the running game or sacked. On 12 first-down rushes, the Longhorns gained only 16 yards, a number suppressed by two sacks that lost 14 yards. The helplessness didn’t change when the down marker displayed a three. Texas ran the ball six times for 23 yards and only two first downs on third down.

With the run game ineffective, the scenarios created on third down were much more difficult for Sarkisian and the offense. Six of the 13 third downs were nine yards or more. The average distance needed was 7.4 yards while the median was seven, so the average wasn’t skewed by a ridiculous third down — Texas regularly put themselves in an uphill battle on third down.

One particularly tough sequence came near the end of the first half. After stopping Arizona State on fourth down, the Longhorn offense took over at the UT 38-yard line with a 17-3 lead and just over five minutes left in the second quarter. Blood was in the water. A touchdown to make the lead 24-3 felt like it could be an early knockout blow. In addition, the Longhorn defense needed an extended rest. Thanks to the quick strikes early, the defense had been on the field for 16 of the first 25 minutes, a two-to-one ratio with the offense. A time-sucking drive that ended in pay dirt could be enough to put the Sun Devils on the mat for good.

Texas started with a run play off the left side behind a pulling Cole Hutson and Trevor Goosby. The GT Counter was stopped for a one-yard loss after being disrupted by a 2i that actually slipped through the B gap between Kelvin Banks and Hayden Conner. The complete lack of effective blocking on this play was baffling.

Facing 2nd and 11, Texas was in a must-pass situation. As wide receiver DeAndre Moore Jr. motioned across to the field, Arizona State rolled into Cover 3 Mable, a defensive call popularized by Nick Saban that puts the backside route runner, Isaiah Bond, in man coverage while the field-side defense remains in Cover 3. This freed Moore Jr. in front of the deep corner, but Ewers delivered a rather inaccurate pass after pump faking to set up 3rd and 11.

Once again, the Longhorns were in a must-pass situation after burning only 30 seconds off the clock. On this play, Arizona State opted for Cover 2 Man, a good choice in hindsight as the Sun Devil defenders in camera view stuck closely with the wid outs. Ewers climbed the pocket and escaped to the left while the linebacker responsible for Quintrevion Wisner took off and made a shoestring tackle on the Texas signal caller.

Fourth down. 91 total seconds off the clock. Zero for two on points or extended rest.

Despite that failure, when Texas got the ball to start the second half, the score remained 17-3. Sarkisian and company once again had an opportunity to not only score, but set the tone.

On first down, Ewers was sacked on a play-action pass where ASU brought six defenders. With his back to the field while faking the handoff, Ewers didn’t have time to finish his drop, reset his feet, and deliver a dump off to avoid the heat. Once again, a poor first-down play set Texas behind the sticks.

The sack eventually set up a 3rd and 12, putting Arizona State in a position where they could be creative with how they chose to defend the sticks and they stopped the Longhorns. Texas punted.

Fourth down. Ninety-six seconds off the clock. Zero for two on points or setting the tone.

Despite the captious analysis of the performance thus far, it was hardly all bad. After Arizona State cut the lead to 17-8, the offense responded with a 13-play, 76-yard touchdown drive that included going 3-for-3 (100 percent) on third down behind the arm and legs of Ewers.

Facing 3rd and 10 in red-plus territory, Ewers dropped it from the sky to Golden, who made an acrobatic over the shoulder catch for a huge conversion.

Three plays later, the offense faced another third down, this time in goal-to-go territory from the 5-yard line. None other than Ewers himself dashed to pay dirt and secured six points.

All in all, Texas struggled on third downs. As has been the case for the entire season, the Longhorns failed to convert when facing third and long. A poor run game and negative yardage plays, particularly on first down, were hugely debilitating in the efforts to limit these occurrences.

The Longhorns rank 34th in the nation with a conversion rate of 43.72 percent after finishing 70th in the country last year while converting 38.4 percent. Ohio State currently has allowed opponents to convert 34.8 percent of third downs, which is 30th in the country. The Buckeyes allowed Tennessee and Oregon to convert a combined 40.0 percent.

Red zone

10 points, three attempts, one rush TD, one made field goal, one missed field goal

Photo by Jason Allen/ISI Photos/Getty Images

The Texas red-zone performance is a bit misleading by rigid definition of what qualifies as a red-zone trip and requires some reading between the lines based on context. According to the typical definition, Texas scored 10 points from three red-zone attempts. The Longhorns were forced to settle for two field goals and scored one touchdown.

This isn’t the whole story — Texas also missed a field goal from ASU’s 30-yard line, and neither overtime drive technically counts toward red-zone statistics. Yet, these two critical possessions, perhaps the most important of the season, resulted in 15 points for the Longhorns while occurring in the red-zone vicinity.

The lone official red-zone touchdown for Texas came from the legs of Ewers, as previously mentioned, while the two drives that resulted in field goal attempts were stopped at the ASU 4-yard line and 20-yard line.

On the first drive, Texas showed promise but stalled near the ASU 20-yard line. Facing 3rd and 7, Ewers aimed for tight end Gunnar Helm on a jump ball over the middle, but the pass fell incomplete. With 4th and 7 looming, Steve Sarkisian sent out the field goal unit — only for an Arizona State false start to shorten the distance. Now at 4th and- 2, Sarkisian decided to trust his offense.

Ewers looked to Matthew Golden, who managed to find just enough space to secure a critical first down despite a questionable decision by Ewers. With a defender positioned between him and Golden, Ewers threw a risky pass into a tight window, placing it where only Golden could make a play. Golden rose above the defender and made a clutch grab to move the chains.

With the ball on the ASU 9-yard line, Texas ran the ball for a loss before rushing for five yards to set up 3rd and goal from the 4-yard line. Facing one-on-one coverage, Ewers targeted Golden on a back shoulder fade that wasn’t close to being completed. Sarkisian opted to kick the field goal, which sailed in.

I’m a huge fan of putting the ball in the hands of Ewers and Golden, but think the speed out and back shoulder fade were lower-probability combos than Texas should have tried. Perhaps another route choice or alignment from the formation. Both route choices, particularly the back-shoulder fade, require such a high amount of skill, timing, and connection based on specific defensive looks that I wonder if a different play call or decision could have resulted in better outcomes.

The final red-zone possession requires a closer look to understand what truly unfolded. While the box score indicates Texas came up empty in the red zone due to a missed field goal, the drive barely crossed the ASU 20-yard line and was more about preserving a field-goal opportunity than pushing for a touchdown.

After Ryan Wingo’s catch brought the ball within kicker Bert Auburn’s range, I would have liked to see more urgency from Texas — to both shorten the kick and possibly capitalize on a blown coverage or a missed tackle for a touchdown. However, Sarkisian’s conservative approach made sense given the circumstances. Still, this possession, though technically categorized as a red-zone trip, wasn’t a traditional one.

Next week, the Longhorns will have their work cut out in the red zone as Ohio State has prided itself on their red-zone defense while boasting the second-best defense in the country in both red-zone scoring percentage and red-zone touchdown rate.

The performance against Arizona State moved Texas’ red-zone scoring rank to 96th while the touchdown rate slots at 52nd in the country. Last year, the Longhorns ranked 87th and 120th, respectively.