Quick Look: TCU Horned Frogs vs. UCF Knights

A preview of the Frogs’ first conference opponent of 2024.

The Frogs will open their 2024 conference slate with a game against the UCF Knights this Saturday at 6:30 pm in Fort Worth. The Knights are 2-0 in 2024 with wins over New Hampshire and Sam Houston State by scores of 57-3 and 45-14 respectively. UCF had an okay year in 2023, going 6-7 in their first year in the Big 12 but had a very solid offseason bringing in the number 34 ranked high school recruiting class and the number 22 ranked transfer class, and should be much improved in 2024. Expect this game to be a close one with both teams facing their first true test of the year.

The Offense

By far the biggest addition that Gus Malzahn made to his team this offseason was bringing in former Arkansas Razorback KJ Jefferson from the portal to start at quarterback. Jefferson has been one of the better quarterbacks in college football the past few years with his best season coming in 2021 when he threw for 2,676 yards and 21 touchdowns to just four interceptions. Standing at six foot three and weighing in at almost 250 pounds, Jefferson is also a threat on the ground as he has eclipsed 600 rushing yards in a season twice in his career. Through two games this season Jefferson has thrown for 333 yards and two touchdowns, completing 65.5 percent of his passes with one interception.

Jefferson will be the best quarterback the Frogs have faced up to this point and could present a challenge for the TCU defense. The Frogs were very susceptible to the quarterback scramble in week one against Stanford and Jefferson is more than capable of making defenses pay with his legs. The defense did a better job of limiting the quarterback scramble against LIU, but Jefferson presents a challenge with his size as a very tough quarterback to bring down. A big key to the game for the Frogs will be not missing tackles against Jefferson and limiting his ability to escape the pocket.

RJ Harvey has received the bulk of the carries for the Knights through two games with 30 carries for 268 yards and six touchdowns. Harvey was an All-Big 12 honorable mention in 2023 with 1,416 rushing yards and 16 rushing touchdowns while averaging a strong 6.3 yards per carry. Harvey has the explosiveness to create a big play whenever he touches the ball as he is averaging an absurd 8.9 yards per carry through the first two games of 2024. Harvey is a very good running back and the Frogs will need to continue their strong start to the season in run defense to slow down UCF.

The top receiving target for Jefferson has been Kobe Hudson who has seven catches for 165 yards this season. The former Auburn Tiger had a strong 2023 campaign with 44 catches for 900 yards and eight touchdowns. Hudson is a true deep threat at receiver, averaging 20.5 yards per reception in 2023 and 23.6 yards per reception in 2024. Look for TCU to roll a safety over the top of Hudson to limit big passing plays.

The Defense

The secondary has done a great job forcing turnovers in 2024 with four interceptions through just two games. The Knights have solid depth at the defensive back positions with the interceptions coming from four different players. Senior safety Quadric Bullard is the leading tackler for the UCF Knights with nine total tackles. The defensive line for UCF is a strength with very solid defensive tackles and two new starters at defensive end who have played well to start the season. Miami transfer Nyjalik Kelly was a big offseason addition at edge rusher and he has produced well to start the season with one sack, 3 tackles, and a forced fumble.

Ricky Barber, Lee Hunter, John Walker, and Matthew Alexander make up the defensive tackle rotation for the Knights and all four are very capable players. The depth on the defensive line will present a challenge for a TCU offensive line still trying to put it all together. UCF held New Hampshire and Sam Houston State to 2.3 and 2.2 yards per carry respectively with solid tackling and controlling the line of scrimmage. This will be the best defense that TCU has faced in 2024.

Overall

This is an interesting matchup for the Frogs because of their strengths and weaknesses on both sides of the ball. The Frogs have been very good at stopping the run defensively with great depth at linebacker and solid defensive line play. UCF is a great rushing team creating a fun matchup when the Knights have the ball. I expect to see TCU load the box against the Knights because I think the secondary will be able to handle the receivers from UCF. When TCU has the ball, expect the Frogs to air it out on Saturday. TCU has not looked great when rushing the ball in 2024 and UCF has excelled at stopping the run. The pass protection unit for the Frogs has been very good to start the season and UCF has only one sack through two games but expect the Knights to be more aggressive in sending pressure on Saturday. With the game being in Fort Worth and a fun atmosphere expected with a sold-out stadium and blackout theme, I have the Frogs winning behind a big performance from Josh Hoover.

Final Prediction: TCU 31, UCF 24