Quick Look: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Frogs will face off against the Red Raiders in Fort Worth this Saturday at 2:30 pm.

The 2024 Homecoming game for the Frogs is this Saturday when TCU takes on in-state rival Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are 3-1 in the Big 12 and 5-2 overall this season and are coming off of an embarrassing loss at home to Baylor. Texas Tech stumbled out of the gate with a close win over Abilene Christian at home and a loss to Washington State before rattling off four straight wins before the Baylor game. This is an important game for the Frogs who are looking for their first win over an in-state opponent in 2024 and to win back-to-back games over FBS opponents for the first time this season. Expect this to be a high-scoring game as TCU and Texas Tech have explosive offenses capable of putting up plenty of points but played questionable defense this season.

Offense

Back leading the Texas Tech offense is junior quarterback Behren Morton who has had an excellent 2024 season thus far. Morton has thrown for 1,926 yards, 17 touchdowns, and just three interceptions and completed over 63% of his passes. Morton had struggled with interceptions in past years with lower than 2:1 touchdown to interception ratios in each of the last two years but has done a great job limiting turnovers this year.

Morton is coming off of a strong week against Baylor, completing over 67 percent of his passes for 286 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception. Morton has solid arm strength and a willingness to push the ball down the field which the Frogs need to be aware of. While Morton is not a big threat in the quarterback running game, he has solid mobility and creativity to make plays when the pocket collapses. A strength of Morton’s game is playmaking on the run and keeping him in the pocket will be a key for TCU’s defense.

The best offensive weapon for Texas Tech is running back Tahj Brooks who is one of the top running backs, if not the top running back, in the Big 12. Brooks has been exceptional in 2024, averaging 5.4 yards per carry for 804 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. The preseason First Team All-Big 12 selection is a powerful runner at five foot ten and 230 pounds and will not be brought down by arm tackles. TCU tacklers will need to be technically sound to prevent Brooks from racking up yards after contact.

Brooks is a true bell-cow back with 123 more carries than anyone else on Texas Tech’s roster. Expect a heavy dose of handoffs to Tahj Brooks on Saturday.

Texas Tech has several talented receiving threats for Morton to throw to and the leading receiver has been Washington State transfer Josh Kelly. Kelly leads the Red Raiders in both receptions and receiving yards with 53 catches for 590 yards and three touchdowns. Kelly has a wide catch radius and is willing to make catches over the middle through contact. Kelly is solid after the catch as well and has returned punts for the Red Raiders this season.

Florida transfer Caleb Douglas is second behind Kelly in receptions and yards with 30 receptions for 419 yards and four touchdowns. Douglas has great size for a wide receiver, standing at 6-foot-4, and is a threat as a jump ball receiver for the Red Raiders. Sophomore Coy Eakin leads Texas Tech in receiving touchdowns this season with five along with 22 total catches for 339 yards.

Former five-star recruit and true freshman Micah Hudson has not been featured as much as expected this year in the Texas Tech offense but is extraordinarily talented and a player to keep an eye on this Saturday.

This is a very potent Texas Tech offense that is averaging over 40 points per game, almost 300 passing yards per game, and 167 rushing yards per game. This is arguably the most balanced offense TCU has faced this season and the Frog defense will need to step up to win this game.

Defense

As good as the Texas Tech offense has been, the Red Raiders have not met expectations this season largely due to defensive struggles. The Texas Tech defense had its worst performance of the season last week against Baylor where they allowed 59 points and 529 yards of total offense. Tech is allowing on average over 36 points per game which ranks 124th in the FBS.

The pass defense has been a huge issue for the Red Raiders allowing 303 passing yards per game which ranks 132nd out of 133 FBS teams this season. Baylor quarterback Sawyer Robertson was able to dice up the Texas Tech secondary for a completion percentage of 65%, 274 yards, and five passing touchdowns.

Rushing defense has been an issue for Texas Tech as well ranking just one spot ahead of TCU in terms of rushing yards allowed per game with 163.4. Opposing offenses have had little trouble moving the ball against Texas Tech. Texas Tech has not been particularly good in the red zone either as opponents are scoring on 85.3% of their red zone trips which is good for 81st in the country.

The Red Raiders have done a solid job forcing turnovers with eight interceptions and three fumble recoveries through seven games. Safety C.J. Baskerville has two of those interceptions and is having a solid season overall with 40 total tackles and two pass deflections. Sophomore safety Chapman Lewis also has two interceptions and has played well at free safety this season. Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez is the leading tackler for Texas Tech with 66 total tackles, one sack, and two pass breakups this season.

Overall

I expect both teams to score over thirty points in this game with two offenses that can put up points going up against two defenses that have both struggled at times this season. Tahj Brooks scares me as does the balanced attack that Texas Tech brings to the table. While the Frogs were able to sell out to stop the run against Utah because of passing game struggles for the Utes, TCU will not be able to ignore the passing attack of Texas Tech.

Behren Morton picked apart TCU’s defense last season and would be happy to do so again this year if TCU decides to load the box. Slowing down the Texas Tech offense will require the TCU defensive front to play with the same physicality as they did against Utah and for the secondary to communicate well and limit big mistakes in coverage.

I think the Frogs will pull this one out because of the encouraging things we saw from the defense against Utah and because I think Josh Hoover and the receivers will have a huge day on Saturday.

Final prediction: TCU 35, Texas Tech 31