Quick Look: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Stanford Cardinal

A look into a team that struggled in 2023, going 3-9 last season.

The Frogs will start the 2024 season with a trip to California for a Friday night matchup with Stanford. TCU is favored by 9.5 points with Stanford coming off of a disappointing 3-9 season in 2023. Stanford projects to be improved in 2024 as they return their starting quarterback, generally a good sign for year-to-year improvement, and have an absolute stud at wide receiver.

Offense

Quarterback Ashton Daniels returns after a solid 2023 where he threw for 2,247 yards and 11 touchdowns. Daniels struggled with accuracy at times with a completion percentage under 60% and eight interceptions on the year. Daniels is a rushing threat with almost 300 yards on the ground last season and three rushing touchdowns. While he isn’t the shiftiest runner, at 6 feet 2 inches and 215 pounds, he is tough to bring down and is willing and able to run through arm tackles.

Daniels’ best game in 2023 was against Colorado where he threw for almost 400 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions to lead the Cardinal on a miraculous comeback to win the game in double overtime. Two other quarterbacks are listed as potential starters on the depth chart (with the “OR” designation TCU fans are too familiar with). One of the two is Justin Lamson, a junior who started his career at Syracuse. Lamson saw limited action in 2023 and threw for only 504 yards with two interceptions.

The third quarterback listed is true freshman Elijah Brown. Brown was four star, top 300 recruit from powerhouse Mater Dei high school. Brown doesn’t have the strongest arm but processes things quickly and has very solid ball placement. I expect to see Brown play at some point against the Frogs on Friday.

Elic Ayomanor was another player with a monster game against Colorado as he racked up 13 catches for 294 yards and three touchdowns in the comeback win. Ayomanor stands at six foot two and 215 pounds giving him excellent size that he uses well to make contested catches and win one-on-one matchups. Ayomanor is a bona fide star wide receiver as he put up over 1000 yards on 62 catches in 2023 as a freshman. Slowing down Ayomanor will be key for the Frog defense on Friday and could be a tall task with injuries to cornerbacks Avery Helm and Vernon Glover.

Sedrick Irvin and Jerome Ford are the two top running backs for the Cardinal to start 2024 and expect them to see fairly even playing time on Friday. Irvin returns for his sophomore season after a decent 2023 where he saw limited action but showed flashes when he got his chances. While only being listed at five foot ten and 190 pounds, Irvin has the balance to fight through contact and pick up extra yards. Ford is a true freshman and former three-star recruit from New Jersey who played quarterback in high school.

Defense

The Stanford defense struggled heavily last year, ranking 132 out of 133 FBS teams in points per game allowed but returned their top two leading tacklers from 2023 in linebackers Gaethan Bernadel and Tristan Sinclair. Bernadel started his career at FIU and transferred to Stanford after a 2022 season that saw him rack up over 100 total tackles. Bernadel is a traditional, run-stopping middle linebacker who will be tasked with slowing down the TCU rushing attack. The senior had 87 total tackles last year along with half of a sack and one pass breakup. Sinclair has plenty of experience as he returns for his fifth season at Stanford after the best statistical season of his career in 2023. Sinclair made 71 tackles and picked up a sack in 2023.

Edge rusher and 2023 sack leader for Stanford David Bailey returns for his junior year. Bailey racked up five sacks and 34 tackles last season. Stanford struggled to get to the quarterback a year ago and was not very good in coverage as they ranked dead last in the FBS in passing yards allowed per game at 298. Stanford also struggled to force turnovers averaging under one turnover forced per game. While there are a lot of returning players for the Cardinal on defense, this was a unit that was flat-out bad in 2023 and does not project to be great in 2024 with no major personnel additions.

Overall

On paper, this is a game that TCU should win. Yes, Elic Ayomanor is a stud and TCU has depleted depth at cornerback, but the Frogs should be able to game plan for this. TCU has a strong safety group with experienced players like Bud Clark and Abe Camara who should be able to provide help over the top. Lamareon James and JaTravis Broughton are two good cornerbacks who both had good fall camps as well. The Frogs should be able to keep the Stanford running game in check with how deep the linebacking group is.

Offensively, the Frogs are more talented than Stanford on the outside and I expect Josh Hoover to be able to move the ball well. All of that said, playing on the road on a weekday can be weird and the fact that Hoover missed spring camp with an injury and might not be on the same page with his receivers yet is still in the back of my mind. I think Stanford is better in 2024 than they were in 2023, but I still have the Frogs winning this one by two touchdowns.

Final prediction: TCU 34, Stanford 20.