Quick Look: TCU Horned Frogs vs. SMU Mustangs

A look ahead to the Battle for the Iron Skillet.

The Frogs will travel across the Metroplex for the 103rd Battle for the Iron Skillet against SMU on Saturday at 4:00 pm. Both teams are sitting at 2-1 on the season and are coming off disappointing home losses. SMU has not looked like the team that garnered high expectations in the offseason with a very close win over Nevada in week zero. That being said, I expect SMU to pull out all the stops like they normally do to try and knock off TCU. This is a very important game for the Frogs who need to take care of business against their rival and get back in the win column before fully entering conference play.

The Offense

SMU has already gone through a quarterback controversy three weeks into the season as it was announced that returning starter Preston Stone would be benched in favor of Kevin Jennings Jr. against TCU. Neither quarterback has looked dominant to start 2024 with the Mustangs only mustering 15 points in a loss to BYU in their last game. Jennings has completed only 56.9 percent of his passes this year for 342 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The passing attack with Jennings at the helm has been more quick game-oriented with Jennings not having a single completion for more than 40 yards in his career. Look for TCU to respond by moving defensive backs closer to the line of scrimmage if this trend continues. The more concerning aspect of Jennings’ game for TCU is his ability to hurt defenses with his legs. The Frogs struggled mightily against a mobile quarterback last week and while Jennings is not as stronga runner as KJ Jefferson, he is capable of picking up chunk yardage on the ground. Jennings is averaging 6.4 yards per carry for 96 total rushing yards and one rushing touchdown in 2024. Jennings will present a different challenge than Jefferson did for the TCU defense. Jefferson looked to run over defenders whereas Jennings aims to run around defenders.

Brashard Smith has gotten the bulk of the carries for the Mustangs and had a strong start to the 2024 season. Smith is averaging 7.2 yards per carry for 253 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Smith is also a threat in the passing game with six catches for 47 yards this season. The Miami transfer has solid vision with very good top-end speed and slowing him down will be key for the TCU defense. LJ Johnson has served as the change of pace back for the Mustangs as a power runner. Johnson is averaging 4.1 yards per carry with 69 total yards and one touchdown on the ground in 2024.

The top receiving target for SMU is undoubtedly tight end RJ Maryland. Maryland leads the team in both receptions and yardage with 10 catches for 175 yards and one touchdown this season. The junior earned All-AAC First Team honors in 2023 with 34 catches for 518 yards and seven touchdowns. Maryland is a threat at all three levels of the passing attack and will be the main focus of TCU’s pass defense. The matchup between Maryland and the TCU safety group, specifically Abe Camara who I expect to guard Maryland the majority of the time, will be very important on Saturday. Senior Jake Bailey is the main receiving threat in the slot for SMU and has racked up seven catches for 93 yards and a touchdown. Key’Shawn Smith is second on the team in receiving yards with six catches for 101 yards and a touchdown and takes the majority of his snaps at outside receiver.

Pass blocking has been an area of weakness for SMU to start 2024, especially in the game against BYU where Stone was sacked three times. I do not expect a heavy dose of straight drop-back passes with Kevin Jennings starting at quarterback, but forcing SMU into obvious passing situations where TCU can use its solid pass rush will be key.

The Defense

The SMU defense has not faced a big challenge this year but has looked solid through three games. Tied for the most tackles on the team is safety Ahmaad Moses who has 18 total tackles along with an interception. Linebacker Kobe Wilson has been an impactful player with 18 total tackles and an interception of his own. The former Temple Owl led SMU in tackles last year and is an important part of the run defense. Starting alongside Wilson at linebacker is Ahmad Walker who was second on the team in tackles in 2023. Defensive end Isaiah Smith has started 2024 strong with two sacks and five tackles this season. Edge rusher Elijah Roberts led the team in sacks in 2023 with 9.5 and is back for his senior season.

The SMU defense has been decent against the run this year, letting up roughly 100 yards per game on the ground. That number is a bit skewed because of their first two games coming against inferior opponents. The Mustangs also rank 37th in the nation in passing yards allowed per game at 158.3.

Overall

I am confident that Josh Hoover and the offense will be able to throw the ball against the SMU defense. TCU has the advantage on the perimeter and I expect Hoover to take advantage with another big day through the air. TCU’s inability to run the ball still scares me especially when it comes to protecting leads. SMU’s run defense has been decent to start the year and I do not see a quick fix to jump-start the running game outside of a major design change to the TCU offense. Defensively, I think the key for the Frogs will be stopping the run. Brashard Smith is a good running back and Kevin Jennings is a capable runner as well. Early down success from the TCU defense will be key to forcing SMU to run more drop-back passes. The passing attack has not been prolific by any means from SMU to start the year and TCU’s pass rush should have the advantage over SMU’s pass blocking unit. I think Sonny Dykes realizes this is a game he needs to win and he makes it happen against his old team.

Final Prediction: TCU 34, SMU 24