Quick Look: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks

A look ahead to TCU football’s trip to Kansas on Saturday.

TCU is set to travel to Kansas for a game at 2:30 pm on Saturday against the 1-3 Jayhawks who have lost three straight games after a win against Lindenwood in week one. These three losses have all been by less than seven points and at the hands of solid teams in Illinois, UNLV, and West Virginia. Despite these three straight losses, Kansas is currently favored by 1.5 points by Vegas. Both teams desperately need a win to keep their seasons on track and stop the losing streaks. This game could turn into a shootout with the Kansas defense struggling to slow down WVU last week and TCU’s well-documented issues in stopping the run.

Offense

Jalon Daniels is back at quarterback for the Jayhawks after missing most of 2023 with an injury. Daniels has struggled to start this season, completing just 56% of his passes for 626 yards through the air. Daniels has been very turnover-prone through four games with seven interceptions and two fumbles lost to just four passing touchdowns. Daniels has not thrown for over 200 yards in a game this season and has thrown at least one interception in each game. His most recent game against West Virginia was his best statistical game of 2024 signaling that he could be nearing a return to his preinjury form. Daniels has a strong arm and the ability to push the ball down the field but accuracy and decision-making can waver at times. What has stayed consistent has been his ability to make plays with his legs with over 100 yards and two touchdowns on the ground this season. Expect Kansas to use a heavy dose of the quarterback run game with read options and designed QB runs to take advantage of a TCU defense that has struggled to slow down mobile quarterbacks. Joining Daniels in the backfield is star running back Devin Neal. Neal has started 2024 off strong, averaging over six yards per carry for 443 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns. Neal is one of the best ball carriers in the Big 12 at breaking tackle with the power and balance to run through arm tackles and create yards after contact. Neal also has the speed to turn five-yard gains into 50-yard gains and has had carries of over 20 yards in three of four games this season. Head coach Lance Leipold likes to get Neal involved in the passing game as Neal has over 150 yards receiving in each of the last two seasons. Leipold does a great job of finding creative ways to get the ball to Neal in space and slowing him down will be key for the TCU defense. Daniel Hishaw Jr. has been an effective running back when Neal needs a breather, averaging over seven yards per carry for 177 yards and two touchdowns this season. The rushing attack for Kansas drives the offense as they average almost 240 yards per game on the ground which is 17th in the nation. Leipold’s offense involves plenty of misdirection and variety in the running game which were two features of UCF’s running game that TCU struggled against. All of this is to say, Kansas might rush for 300 yards against TCU.

Senior wide receiver Luke Grimm has been by far the top target for Kansas in 2024. Grimm leads the team in receptions, yards, and touchdowns with 24 catches for 232 yards and three touchdowns. Grimm is another weapon for Kansas that is dangerous in open space with the ability to make defenders miss and the speed to create big plays. Grimm is a potential recipient of jet sweeps and screen passes to keep the TCU run defense off balance. Keeping track of Grimm on play-action passes should be a big priority for the TCU secondary.

The Jayhawk offensive line has been the opposite of the TCU offensive line this season with strong run-blocking performances but struggles in pass protection. Kansas has given up five sacks in the last three games but has had plenty of success opening rushing lanes.

Defense

The Kansas defense has been solid in 2024, holding three of four opponents below 24 points despite turnover issues from the offense creating good field position for opposing offenses. They have done a solid job of forcing turnovers with three interceptions and a fumble recovery through four games. Two of those interceptions have come from cornerback Mello Dotson who also has two pass deflections on the season. Dotson was a very solid player for the Jayhawks in 2023 with 11 pass breakups and four interceptions and is off to a strong 2024. Dotson was a preseason All-Big 12 First Team selection and the matchup between Dotson and the receivers for TCU will be one to watch on Saturday. The cornerback playing opposite of Dotson was also a preseason All-Big 12 First Team selection in Cobee Bryant. Bryant matched Dotson with four interceptions in 2023 and has one so far in 2024. It will be strength on strength when TCU is on offense with TCU’s bevy of talented receivers taking on two very good cornerbacks for Kansas.

The leading tackler for the Jayhawks in 2024 has been linebacker Cornell Wheeler who has 25 tackles, three pass breakups, and two forced fumbles this season. Wheeler is a solid athlete at linebacker with the ability to create negative plays for opposing offenses.

The pass rush for Kansas has been very good in 2024 with nine sacks through four games. The top producer has been defensive end Jereme Robinson who has 3.5 sacks and 10 total tackles this season. Fellow defensive end Dean Miller has been an impactful player as well with 1.5 sacks and 10 tackles in 2024. Robinson and Miller present different challenges as edge rushers with Robinson using power moves to get to the quarterback and Miller having better speed to get around the edge.

Overall

I do not like this matchup at all for the Frogs. Sure, Kansas has struggled to move the ball through the air and has been very turnover-prone but that might not matter if TCU cannot stop the run. The last two quarterbacks TCU has faced have attempted just 22 passes and 19 passes and both offenses scored points basically at will. Barring a turnaround from the TCU run defense or a bold choice by the Kansas coaching staff to turn away from the running game, Jalon Daniels will not have to be great for the Jayhawks to score points. It is really hard to force interceptions and sacks if the opposing offense is averaging seven yards per carry. UCF and Kansas have similar offenses in that their rushing attacks are very well-designed play-calling wise and both have star running backs and mobile quarterbacks. I am not confident in TCU’s ability to stop a Lance Leipold offense even with the aforementioned struggles through the air. The matchup gets worse for TCU considering the strength of the Kansas defense has been the pass defense. Both cornerbacks are very good and their pass rush has been wreaking havoc on opposing offensive lines this season. I think TCU has the depth and talent at wide receiver and talent at quarterback to move the ball against Kansas but I don’t know if it will be enough to keep up with the Kansas offense. TCU desperately needs either the running game or run defense to step up in this game and I unfortunately do not think it happens on the road. I hope I am wrong but I think Kansas wins this game at home.

Final Prediction: Kansas 34, TCU 31