The Frogs will take on Cincinnati for the first time since the Bearcats joined the Big 12.
TCU Football will close out its regular season with a trip to Cincinnati to play the Bearcats. Cinci started the season strong going 5-2 in their first seven games but have lost four straight to fall to 3-5 in conference play and 5-6 overall. The game against TCU will be Senior Day for the Bearcats and the last chance for Cincinnati to reach bowl eligibility. This game will be a good test for TCU against a motivated Cincinnati team in harsh conditions with the game-time temperature projected to be below freezing.
Offense
Starting at quarterback for the Bearcats is Indiana transfer Brendan Sorsby. Sorsby is having a solid 2024 season racking up 2,653 passing yards, 18 passing touchdowns, and six interceptions. Sorsby averages 7.5 yards per attempt which ranks 60th in the FBS and completes around 64 percent of his passes. The DFW native is tough to bring down with solid size, standing at six foot three and weighing in at 228 pounds. Sorsby is also a threat on the ground with over 350 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns on the year. Sorsby is not the shiftiest runner but has solid north-south speed and the strength to run through arm tackles. The Frogs will need to be disciplined in their pass-rushing lanes to keep Sorsby in the pocket and limit the damage he can do with his legs. Another rushing threat for the Bearcats is senior running back Corey Kiner. Kiner reached the 1,000-yard mark for the second consecutive season last week against Kansas State and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry this season. Kiner is not the biggest running back, standing at five foot nine and weighing 210 pounds, but he runs with great balance and is a powerful, downhill runner. The dual threat of Kiner and Sorsby on the ground will be a big test for a TCU run defense that has improved over the course of the season but is still vulnerable to dominant rushing offenses. Evan Pryor provides a change of pace in the backfield for the Bearcats as a shiftier, more elusive-styled running back. Pryor has 52 carries for 407 yards and six touchdowns, good for an average of 7.8 yards per carry. Pryor is also a receiving threat out of the backfield with 13 catches for 161 yards and a receiving touchdown.
Wide receiver Xzavier Henderson is the primary target for Sorsby as he leads the team in catches and receiving yards with 56 receptions for 692 yards and four touchdowns this season. The former Florida Gator is a big target standing at six foot three with a big wingspan. Henderson uses that size well to make contested catches down the field, averaging over 12 yards per reception. Tight end Joe Royer is a big factor in the Bearcat passing attack with 43 catches for 490 yards and three touchdowns in 2024. Royer has good size at six foot five, 255 pounds, and moves very well with solid route running skills. Expect Royer to see plenty of targets on over and in routes on Saturday. Wide receiver Tony Johnson leads the team with six touchdown catches this season and 43 total receptions for 428 yards. Johnson does most of his damage from the slot with solid short-area quickness to elude defenders.
Defense
The Cincinnati defense has had an inconsistent 2024 with a few impressive performances and a few games where they struggled. Their most impressive performance came against Arizona State where they held the Sun Devils to just 14 points and held star running back Cam Skattebo to just 75 yards on the ground. The defense was very good against UCF as well, holding the Golden Knights to just 13 points. However, teams with good passing offenses such as Texas Tech and Colorado have given the Bearcats issues and Cinci has given up at least 30 points in each of their last four games. Cincinnati ranks around the middle of the pack in pass defense with 223 passing yards allowed per game which is 75th in the country. The rushing defense does not stand out either, allowing 166 yards per game on the ground, good for 95th in the country. The Bearcats have struggled to force interceptions this season with just four through 11 games. Cincinnati has made up for that with 14 forced fumbles in 2024 with nine being recovered by the Bearcats.
Linebacker Jared Bartlett leads the Bearcats in both tackles and sacks with 59 total tackles and 7.5 sacks along with three pass breakups in 2024. The West Virginia transfer is a versatile defender who will be moved around the defense from linebacker to edge rusher depending on the situation. Linebacker Atwan Peek Jr. is a key player for the Bearcats, especially in run defense with 56 total tackles and four forced fumbles. Defensive tackle Dontay Corleone is a major factor on the defensive line with 19 tackles and 3.5 sacks in 2024. The preseason All-Big 12 selection will present a big challenge for the interior of TCU’s offensive line.
Overall
Cincinnati is an interesting matchup for the Frogs because they have no glaring weakness but no overwhelming strength. I think the Bearcats will run the ball a lot on Saturday considering the weather and the matchup against TCU’s defense. Sorsby could cause major issues for the Frogs with his legs. That being said, the Bearcats have not been able to keep up with high-scoring offenses in 2024 as they are 0-6 when opponents score over 20 points. Josh Hoover has the arm strength to cut through cold air and the Frogs should be able to move the ball against a defense that has struggled to pick passes off. I think Cincinnati keeps it close but I have the Frogs reaching eight wins in this one.
Final prediction: TCU 35, Cincinnati 24