Quick Look: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Baylor Bears

The Frogs have a chance to pick up a fifth consecutive win over Baylor this weekend.

The Frogs travel down to Waco this Saturday for the latest installment of the Revivalry against Baylor. The Bears started the season off very slowly but now appear to have turned a corner in recent weeks as they are coming off of double-digit wins over Texas Tech and Oklahoma State. This game is an opportunity for the Frogs to move to 2-2 against in-state opponents in 2024 and to win their fifth straight game over the Bears. Expect another high-scoring game as Baylor has made significant improvements offensively this season but is susceptible to giving up plenty of passing yards on defense.

Offense

Arguably the biggest spark for the midseason improvement of the Baylor offense has been the move to Sawyer Robertson at quarterback. Robertson did not enter the season as the starter but has thrown for 1,541 yards, 17 touchdowns, and four interceptions with a 60.1% completion percentage. Robertson has been especially impressive recently as he was responsible for nine touchdowns, threw for almost 500 yards, and turned the ball over once over the last two games. Robertson’s ability to push the ball down the field and throw the deep ball has been key for Baylor’s offense.

Baylor likes to throw vertical routes on the outside when they face one one-on-one coverage and I expect that trend to continue against TCU. Robertson is also a threat on the ground in both the designed quarterback run game and as a scrambler. Robertson has 229 yards and four touchdowns on the ground this season with multiple runs of over 40 yards. He is not super shifty but has good size at six foot four and 220 pounds and the top-end speed to create explosive plays. Limiting the quarterback run will be key for the Frogs on Saturday.

The Bears use a running back by committee approach with three solid backs getting carries. Bryson Washington leads the team in carries with 70 and has averaged 5.4 yards per carry for a total of 380 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Washington is a physical runner with solid balance to pick up yards after contact and is a factor in the passing game with 13 catches for 121 receiving yards in 2024.

Sophomore Dawson Pendergrass is second on the team in carries with 56 and leads the team in yards per carry with 6.5 for a total of 362 yards and two rushing touchdowns. Pendergrass is another physical runner for the Bears and has the speed to pick up chunk yardage with multiple runs over 40 yards this season. The third running back on the committee is Richard Reese who is averaging 4.4 yards per carry with 215 yards and one rushing touchdown on the year. The Bears take advantage of their depth by rotating their running backs from drive to drive to keep them fresh.

There is no single dominant receiver on the roster for the Bears, but they have a number of contributing pass catchers with three receivers with over 300 yards this season. Josh Cameron leads the team in catches with 25 for 365 yards and seven touchdowns. Cameron is dangerous in the open field with the strength to run through arm tackles and the agility to make defenders miss. He is a factor in the screen game and returns punts for the Bears. The Frogs will need to limit line-drive punts to Cameron as he is averaging over 20 yards per punt return this season.

Texas State transfer Ashtyn Hawkins has been a solid receiving weapon for the Bears with 24 catches for 346 yards and three touchdowns. Hawkins has great contested catch ability despite a smaller frame and is a good route runner. Senior Hal Presley is a dangerous deep threat for the Bears, averaging over 15 yards per reception this season. Presley has 19 catches for 300 yards and three touchdowns this season and is a target for jump balls with a wide catch radius as he stands at six foot three with a big wingspan.

The Baylor offense has 59 points and 38 points in their last two games and will present a challenge for a TCU defense that has not faced many prolific passing offenses this season.

Defense

The Baylor defense has not been a strength this season as they have allowed over thirty points to opposing offenses four times this season and rank 77th in the nation in scoring defense with 25.12 points allowed per game. The Bears have not been great against the pass or the run this season but not abysmal against either, giving up 216 passing yards per game and 149 rushing yards per game. Oklahoma State was able to pick up yards through the air very easily against Baylor last week as Alan Bowman completed 66% of his passes and threw for over 350 yards. Josh Hoover is a better quarterback than Bowman and will have an opportunity for a big game against the Bears. The pass rush for the Bears has been productive with 17 sacks as a team through eight games including three against Oklahoma State last week.

Linebacker Matt Jones has played very well in 2024, leading Baylor in tackles with 71 along with three sacks, four pass breakups, and a forced fumble. The matchup between Jones and the TCU offensive line will be one to watch on Saturday. Linebacker Keaton Thomas has impressed in his first year in the rotation with 62 tackles, one sack, and a pick-six. Edge rusher Garmon Randolph leads the team in sacks with 3.5 along with 11 total tackles. Randolph has great size standing at six foot EIGHT and weighing in at 260 pounds. He will be the target of extra pass protection attention on Saturday. Corey Gordon leads Baylor in interceptions with two along with 24 total tackles.

The Baylor defense has been decent this season. They do not stop the pass or run particularly well but are not super vulnerable against either.

Overall

Both teams have a solid amount of positive momentum coming into this game. TCU has played improved defense the past two weeks and flashed the offensive potential down the stretch against Texas Tech. Baylor’s offense has been sparked by Sawyer Robertson and they have moved the ball with ease in the last two weeks. Expect both teams to empty the playbook for the rivalry game. I think this will be a very close game but I like the matchup for TCU’s offense.

Final prediction: TCU 34, Baylor 31