Quick Look: TCU Horned Frogs vs. Arizona Wildcats

The Frogs and Wildcats will play on Saturday for the first time since 2003.

TCU Football will return to action following the bye week with a matchup with new conference mate Arizona this Saturday in Fort Worth. The Wildcats are coming off a 27-3 win at home over Houston last week that snapped a five-game losing streak. Arizona has not come close to meeting high preseason expectations as they sit at 2-5 in conference play and 4-6 overall. Despite these struggles, the Wildcats still have some very talented players that TCU will need to contain to pick up the win on Saturday.

Offense

Redshirt sophomore Noah Fifita is the starting quarterback for the Wildcats for the second straight season. Fifita had a prolific 2023 season where he threw for 2,869 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only six interceptions but has taken a step back in 2024. Fifita has racked up solid passing yards this season with 2,548 but has been much more turnover prone with 11 interceptions to just 15 touchdowns. Fifita has also taken more sacks this season with 24 through ten games compared to taking 19 last season.

A comforting note for TCU fans is that Fifita is not heavily involved in the rushing attack with only 24 yards on the ground this season. Fifita has no qualms about pushing the ball down the field and the TCU defense will need to be disciplined to prevent big plays on Saturday. Accuracy can be an issue for Fifita at times as his completion percentage is hovering at 60% this season which ranks 76th in the country among qualified passers.

Fifita does not have the biggest arm but plays with great anticipation, especially when targeting superstar receiver Tetairoa McMillan. Fifita and McMillan were high school teammates in California and have great chemistry that leads to success on anticipation throws on timing routes. McMillan is a projected top-15 pick in the 2025 NFL draft and will present a major challenge for the TCU secondary. His stats for the season are staggering with 69 catches for 1,136 yards and seven touchdowns. McMillan sees a heavy dose of targets and has cracked the 200-yard mark twice this season.

McMillan has excellent size and catch radius, standing at six foot five giving him tremendous ability to win on jump balls and to make contested catches over the middle. He is not lacking in the speed department with the ability to take the top off of the defense if there is no safety help over the top of him. McMillan has a touchdown catch in each of the last three games and will be a target in the red zone for the Wildcats.

Sophomore Chris Hunter is the second-most targeted receiver with 24 catches for 259 yards and one touchdown. Hunter is coming off of two straight good games with a combined 13 catches for 167 yards against UCF and Houston. Part of the reason Arizona has struggled this season has been a lack of reliable receiving options behind McMillan to make defenses pay for sending extra help to McMillan’s side. The main focus for TCU’s secondary will consequently be containing McMillan.

Quali Conley receives the bulk of the carries for the Wildcats and is averaging 5.3 yards per carry for a total of 677 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground in 2024. The San Jose State transfer displays solid patience and great top-end speed to create big plays for Arizona. Conley is a receiving threat out of the backfield with 33 catches for 201 yards and one touchdown on the season. While the Arizona offense is not as prolific as it was in 2023, there are still some supremely talented players on the roster capable of creating huge plays for the Wildcats.

Defense:

The defense for the Wildcats has struggled this season ranking 92nd in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 28.3 points per game this season. The rushing defense has not been a strength as the Wildcats allow 166 yards per game on the ground which ranks 94th in the nation, just four spots ahead of TCU. The passing defense has also struggled allowing over 220 passing yards per game which ranks 69th in the nation. Part of the issue has been a lack of interceptions from the secondary with only seven picks through ten games.

The pass rush has done a solid job getting to opposing quarterbacks as Arizona has 16 sacks as a team on the year. The most prolific pass rusher has been defensive lineman Tre Smith who has 3.5 sacks along with 45 tackles and a forced fumble in 2024. Linebacker Taye Brown is a factor in the pass rush as well with two sacks along with 55 total tackles and a forced fumble. The best player on the defense, however, is potential 2025 first-round pick Tecario Davis who has been excellent at cornerback for the Wildcats.

Davis does not have an interception or an outlandish number of pass breakups because opposing offenses typically avoid targeting him. Davis has great size for a cornerback at six foot four meaning he could get the Savion Williams matchup on Saturday. Genesis Smith has been a playmaker in the secondary for the Wildcats with 47 total tackles, five pass breakups, and three interceptions. Smith had a great game last Friday against Houston where he had seven tackles, an interception, and a fumble recovery.

The Arizona defense is coming off its best performance of the season, holding Houston to just three points last Friday. They gave up plenty of yards to the Cougars, who had 326 yards of total offense, but were stout on third and fourth down. Houston was only able to convert 2 of 13 third downs and went 0-4 on fourth down conversion attempts. Early down success to set up manageable third downs will be key for the TCU offense.

Overall:

Arizona has a few very talented players who will be picked very highly in the 2025 NFL draft, but the Wildcats lack the pieces around them to be a competitive football team. While the defense for Arizona looked great a week ago, Houston is not an explosive team offensively. The depth of TCU’s receiving corps should match up well against an Arizona defense that is heavily reliant on a few top players. Tet McMillan scares me and he could very easily put up 150+ yards and multiple touchdowns, but there is not a lot of talent on the offensive side of the ball outside of him. I think TCU wins this one by around a touchdown at home.

Final Prediction: TCU 34, Arizona 28