The G5 representative is going to earn a surprising seed before stunning a power conference foe in the new 12-team Playoff
For the first time the the sport’s history, every single FBS college football program truly has a path to win the national championship, albeit with some having far more difficult climbs to reach that mountaintop. In the 12-team Playoff that will conclude the 2024 season, a team from a non-power conference is guaranteed a spot in the field. It is widely believed that this Group of 5 conference champion is merely a throwaway handout, set to be given the 12-seed to be promptly eviscerated by the 5-seed. A courtesy pat on the back to avoid antitrust collusion lawsuits and a swift kick in the pants out the door. Many national outlets proclaim that the 5-seed will actually be the most precious spot in the entire bracket and easiest path to the Semifinal, hosting a Playoff game on campus in the first round vs. one of these supposed cupcakes before a quarterfinal matchup vs. the worst Power 4 conference champion as the 4-seed. This assumption suggests that seven non-conference champions will be ranked by the Committee higher than the very best G5 conference champion. Although true that many of the programs that would’ve best thrived with this G5 opportunity in years past have graduated to Power leagues – TCU, Utah, UCF, Cincinnati, Houston – there are still plenty of strong squads looking to make the Cinderella run. My preseason CFP hot take is that the G5 representative will not be the 12-seed, for an even spicier take, might suggest that the G5 team can earn a bye as a top-4 conference champion, with a surface-of-the-sun take that multiple G5 teams reach the CFP. The recipe is an elite season – likely undefeated – with multiple ranked wins including a non-conference win over another playoff contender. Pair that with some upsets in Power Conference championships and you have a G5 squad with the auto-bid into the CFP Quarterfinal. Let’s take a look at the teams most likely to break the glass ceiling of low expectations:
Favorites:
- Memphis Tigers: The favorites to win the AAC, at +220 on DraftKings, Memphis is the most likely to hit the required thresholds to leap to the top G5 spot: a solid fellow G5 non-con foe in Troy, a top-tier opportunity in Tallahassee vs. Florida State and a conference schedule that features road game challenges at USF, UTSA, and Tulane. Returning many starters, including senior QB Seth Henigan, r. If the Tigers complete that slate unscathed, gets a rematch vs. one of those top squads in the conference title game. Depending on how the power league championships shake out, an undefeated season could definitely result in a Top-4 ranking for the Tigers
- Tulane Green Wave: All the above applies to Tulane as well, however the Green Wave have a new coach in Jon Sumrall and have a distinctly more difficult non-conference slate, facing Kansas State, Oklahoma, and Louisiana, but do get an easier road within the American. In either case, the AAC Champion should be well positioned to earn a Playoff bid and may have delivered a season worthy of a top-11 seed.
- Boise State: With former head coach Andy Avalos now leading the TCU Defense, the Broncos have turned the reins over to Spencer Danielson, have brought in some significant portal additions and appear to be the cream of the Mountain West crop. With the LeGarrette Blount Bowl vs. Oregon in Week 2 and matchups with former Pac-2 squads Oregon State and Washington State, Boise has a chance to build a resume that’ll hold a lot of weight with the Committee.
Sleepers:
- UNLV: OK, hear me out, yes they lost QB Jayden Maiava to USC, but this team should still be fun. With tough but manageable non-con games vs. Houston, Kansas, and Syracuse, the Rebels can build a strong resume. Plus UNLV gets Boise in Allegiant Stadium in Vegas and could take on the Broncos twice to earn a conference title.
- Appalachian State: The Mountaineers get Clemson and Liberty ahead of a sneaky strong Sun Belt slate, but likely would require an undefeated run to be atop the G5 mountain in the end.
- James Madison: The same goes for fellow Sun Belt contender Dukes, but the game at North Carolina looks to be easier post-Drake Maye than App’s trip to Clemson.
- Miami (OH): With a strong non-con slate of games vs. Cincinnati, Northwestern, and Notre Dame, a 1-loss or better MAC Champion RedHawks squad has to be in consideration.