With four new additions and a new Playoff model, 2024 is set to be a wild one in “deepest conference in America.”
Fall camps have opened across the country and Week Zero of the 2024 College Football season is just three weeks away. Conference realignment turmoil and transfer portal roster turnover can begin to take a backseat to the upcoming on-field action for what should be one of the wildest seasons in the sport’s history as every FBS program has the opportunity to earn a spot in the 12-team College Football Playoff field and compete for a National Championship. The Big 12 again welcomes four new additions to its roster, with Arizona State, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah bringing a new dimension and west coast presence to the league. The Big 12 is now the deepest & most competitive top-to-bottom conference in the nation, making it the least predictable league, so let’s go out on a limb with some hot takes for how the conference will play out in 2024.
UCF Will Win the Big 12
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Picked 8th in the Preseason Big 12 Media Poll, the Knights are set at DraftKings Sportsbook with the fourth-best odds (+950) to lift the trophy in Arlington in December, well behind favorites Utah, Kansas State, and Oklahoma State, with same odds as Iowa State and Kansas. As an additional hot take, although the Big 12 is incredibly deep at running back, UCF sports the best RB room in the league, with two 1,400+ yard, 15+ TD rushers in returning starter RJ Harvey & Toledo transfer Peny Boone. Former Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson joins to take over the Gus Malzahn offense, and while any comparison to former Malzahn QB Cam Newton is absurd, Jefferson should be able to control games and get the ball to a talented WR group led by Kobe Hudson. The defense led by Lee Hunter at nose tackle will devour offensive lines while a secondary that ranked top 25 nationally in pass yards allowed per game in 2023 cleans up on the back end. The schedule is certainly challenging, with games in Ames and Morgantown, but the Knights do avoid KSU & OSU in conference play. The Knights will lose in Fort Worth in the Week Three conference opener and will lose in Gainesville to save Billy Napier’s job at Florida, but will win out the rest of the way, including the season finale at home in the Bounce House vs. the Utes, which leads me to my next hot take:
Neither Utah nor Kansas State will play in the Big 12 Championship
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The Utes and WIldcats are heavy co-favorites to win the conference crown this season, the top two teams in the preseason poll, each with a season win-total of 9.5 games, per DraftKings. The league schedule makers seemingly handpicked a scenario where these two would meet in Arlington, giving them the two easiest schedules in the conference, each ranked outside the top 60 in schedule difficulty, per KFord Ratings. Each get games against Big 12 opponents that are considered non-conference match ups (KSU vs. Arizona & Utah vs. Baylor) and they do not play against each other in the regular season. Utah won the Pac 12 the last two seasons with a healthy Rising who is 25 years old entering his seventh year of collegiate football and returns top target, three-time All-Pac 12 TE Brant Kuithe, and even have former five-star QB Sam Huard backing up Rising should he fall to injury again. Add in the league’s most respected head coach in Kyle Whittingham, the Utes seem a lock to at least play for the title. However a road trip to Stillwater in September and the aforementioned season finale body clock killer in Orlando on a short week are real stumble blocks while home contests vs. Arizona, TCU, and Iowa State will be trickier than spreadsheet projections make them out to be, plus the Holy War showdown with BYU can always get weird, especially as it’s a conference contest again. As for Kansas State, the Cats avoid UCF & Utah, but have tricky road trips to Provo & Morgantown with a season finale Farmageddon in Ames. It seems KSU’s personnel losses are being mostly overlooked on the offseason praise for KSU as a Playoff lock – Cooper Beebe was a generation offensive lineman and will be a challenge to simply replace on the aggregate; as much flash and potential Avery Johnson has, he needs to reach a Caleb Williams-esque ceiling as a true sophomore for Chris Kleiman’s squad to meet the expectations of the national media this season. While certainly a likely outcome for the dynamic QB, it may not come as easy as projected. KSU & Utah will each lose two or more conference games and will be left at home during championship weekend hoping for chaos to find a backdoor into the Playoff.
A Big 12 team will advance further in the College Football Playoff than either Texas or Oklahoma
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Oklahoma was given a very difficult first schedule by the SEC and ranks as a top ten most difficult slate in the county. So while two or three losses may be likely, it’s also quite likely if that’s all the Sooners drop they’ll be considered in high regard by the CFP Committee. Texas on the other hand was given the SEC’s easiest schedule for its introductory season; anything less than a spot in the SEC Championship and a bid to the College Football Playoff would be a disastrous result for the Longhorns. While likely one or both of the former Big 12 squads reach the 12-team Playoff, give me the Big 12 Champion to win one game to advance to the Semifinal or an at-large Big 12 team going on a run. Perhaps that’s an additional hot take in itself: multiple Big 12 teams will reach the Playoffs. Even as the consensus national commentary is that it’ll be nine teams combined from the pool of Big Ten, SEC, and Notre Dame, with one team each from Big 12, ACC, and G5. It’s possible I’m just too biased to see the big picture, but the non-competitive bottom of each of those “major” leagues along with the SEC’s 8-game league schedule should keep top-end Big 12 teams ahead of mid-table teams from the other leagues when comparing resumes head-to-head.
A Big 12 Player will win the Heisman Trophy
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The Big 12 has not had a Heisman Trophy winner since OU’s Kyler Murray in 2018 and the current member schools haven’t had a winner since RGIII in 2011. While DraftKings does not have anyone from the league currently in the Top 10 odds to take home the prestigious awards, there are many viable candidates just below that threshold with five Big 12 QBs in the 11-20 (Avery Johnson, KSU; Noah Fifita, Arizona; Jalon Daniels, Kansas; Shedeur Sanders, Colorado; Cam Rising, Utah). Add in the nation’s best selection of running backs, elite wide out Tet McMillan, and breakout candidates with potential for massive stats like QBs KJ Jefferson, Garrett Greene, Rocco Becht, Behren Morton, and Josh Hoover. There will be a team from the Big 12 that will be surprisingly elite, led by players who perform at All-American level, with someone putting up a statistical season that cannot be ignored, earning a trip to the Heisman ceremony and bringing home the trophy.
Five 2024 Big 12 Head Coaches will not be in the same role in 2025
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Only two of the 16 Big 12 teams will be breaking in new head coaches in 2024: Arizona hiring Brent Brennan from San Jose State to replace a departing Jedd Fisch and Houston hiring Willie Fritz away from Tulane after firing Dana Holgorsen. That unique level of continuity headed into this season sets up for some make-or-break hot seats, some programs where a catastrophic season could put a coach on the hot seat, and others where another ceiling-breaking success could find other programs opening the vault to lure a coach away. Assuming ASU’s Kenny Dillingham is safe in year two taking over the dumpster fire left by Herm Edwards, along with newcomers Brennan and Fritz, these are the potential movers.
Hot Seat: Dave Aranda, Baylor; Kalani Sitake, BYU; Neal Brown, WVU; Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati. Aranda is finally dumping bags of cash on recruits and taking over defensive coordinator responsibilities, so he might have a case to stick around even if the Bears are average. Sitake might be the most well-liked coach in the league and has arguably the most difficult job, but after seven ‘meh’ years as an independent, his Cougars got waxed in the Big 12; BYU will have to decide if that is good enough. Brown was on the nation’s hottest hot seat going into last season, somehow keeping his job after a Hail Mary loss to Houston before a turnaround campaign and Duke’s Mayo Bowl win earned him a contract extension through 2027; that extension is just money and if the ‘Eers fall off the map in ‘24, he could find himself in boiling water again. Satterfield is entering only his second season in Cinci, but unlike Dillingham, he’s taking over an elite G5 program that failed in its first season in a power league, finishing last in the Big 12 with just one conference win; another hapless campaign and the Bearcats may be on the hunt again.
Hired Away: Matt Campbell, ISU; Lance Leipold, Kansas; Chris Kleiman, KSU. It’s kind of remarkable that during all the turmoil and coach movement over the last few years that none of these three have been lured away with giant bags of cash from the Big Ten or SEC. Each has exceeded expectations in building these programs into consistent contenders during his tenure. Each is breaking in a new offensive coordinator in 2024 and if this is another highly successful campaign, these head coaches’ profiles will be even higher and perhaps enough for someone to open the vault and send one or more out of the league.
FAFO: Sonny Dykes, TCU; Kenny Dillingham, ASU; Joey McGuire, TTU; Gus Malzahn, UCF. These coaches are each presumably safe at least into the next season, but probably shouldn’t mess around and find out. The National Championship run for Dykes, the dumpster fire Dillingham took over, the recruiting & vibes bump from McGuire, and the recent upgrade to a power conference for Malzahn are likely enough to keep this group fully off the hot seat regardless of the 2024 outcome, but if these have a catastrophic season, don’t be surprised if there are some difficult conversations at these programs.
Retirement: Kyle Whittingham, Utah; Mike Gundy, OK State; Deion Sanders, Colorado. Utah has already named Defensive Coordinator Morgan Scalley as its coach in waiting; that doesn’t mean Whittingham will hang it up after one season in the Big 12, but that possibility is certainly on the table. Gundy is a complete wild card, perhaps the new reality of college football NIL & transfer portal will eat him alive or perhaps he finally says something so outlandish he’ll “mutually part ways” with the university (more outlandish than saying he’s driven drunk thousands of times? OK, maybe not), or maybe he’ll just have other plans this offseason. As for Coach Prime, once the pump-and-dump scheme to make Shedeur a First Round draft pick, will he really be hanging around with whatever is left in Boulder?
An FCS team from the Dakotas will defeat a Big 12 team (but maybe not the one you think)
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Frequently during the pre-season previews from national outlets, when discussing the 2024 outlook for the Colorado Buffaloes, the conversation will start with some version of “watch out, they’ll be in an FCS dog fight Week One, the Bison just might take ‘em down in Boulder!” And while North Dakota State is without question a tougher-than-most FCS foe to open your season, having won all but two FCS Championships from 2011-2021, NDSU has fallen behind its southern peer. Perhaps a mild take, but I’m projecting Colorado to be locked in and ready to blow out NDSU on that Thursday night to open the season. In fact, it’s actually more likely that the Week One dog fight will actually occur in Stillwater where Ollie Gordon will serve his DUI punishment with 50 carries vs. back-to-back FCS National Champion South Dakota State Jackrabbits. OK State enters the season as third in the Big 12 preseason poll and No. 18 overall in the preseason Coaches Poll, but if I’m choosing one of these upsets, I’m taking SDSU at +275 rather than NDSU at +240 on DraftKings Sportsbook. As an extra-spicy hot take, I’d even suggest that the North Dakota Fighting Hawks are more likely to take down Iowa State in Ames than Coach Prime and the Buffs to fall to the Bison.