A look at the game odds and player projections for TCU’s trip to Palo Alto
Game Odds
NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Moneyline: TCU -325; Stanford +260
Spread: TCU -9
Total Points: 60.5
The Horned Frogs are undefeated against the Cardinal, with a pair of wins over Jim Harbaugh-coached teams and the 2017 Alamo Bowl. Both squads enter the game following disappointing 2023 campaigns, but each showed signs of a brighter future ahead. TCU infamously was upset as a massive favorite to open the season last year against a former Pac 12 squad and will be squarely focused on not doing so in 2024. Despite 80% of the action being on TCU to cover this spread, the line continues to drop after opening at 9.5 and now showing 8.5 many places across the market, which could be a sign of some really sharp folks backing Stanford. TCU is still highly favored to emerge victorious, but there are signs of concern that it’ll be a runaway victory and perhaps we’ll be up late into the night sweating this game right to the final minutes.
Player Projections
Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
TCU
Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 281.5
Drake Dabney, Receiving Yards: 37.5
JP Richardson, Receiving Yards: 45.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 65.5
Kyle Lemmermann, Kicking Points: 7.5
In his six starts last season Josh Hoover went way over this yardage total in five of them, with only the game at Kansas State falling short. Stanford’s defense is not that of the Wildcats. Unless the theory is that either Hoover does not play the full game or these teams choose to grind out the clock and reduce the number of possessions. While we’re not certain of the role Dabney will play or the connection he has with Hoover, the TCU QB delivered huge games for TE Jared Wiley last season and can be expected to target the Baylor transfer enough to clear this total. From the receivers, these numbers appear achievable, but I’d tread with caution. JPR only cleared this number once with Hoover and Williams just twice. Hopefully Lemmermann is only kicking extra points and the only way to go over is getting eight touchdowns, but in reality, TCU’s offense stalled in the scoring zone at an extreme rate in 2023, if those red zone woes continue the true freshman will have ample field goal opportunity.
Stanford
Elic Ayomanor, Receiving Yards: 72.5
Sam Roush, Receiving Yards: 36.5
Tiger Bachmeier, Receiving Yards: 34.5
Ayomanor is the headliner and TCU is breaking in a pair of new cornerbacks, but both are veteran transfers with plenty of experience. He only went over this total four times last season, one of which came vs. FCS Sacramento State, but those monster games destroying Travis Hunter and Washington prove he can break out even in the toughest of situations. Roush will be s favorite safety valve of QB Ashton Daniels, and went over this number five of the final seven games last year and has a real chance to be a chain-moving problem for the Frogs. I have Bachmeier as the toughest matchup for the Frogs on Friday and think he’ll be the Cardinal’s leading receiver and easily clear this number as he did six times in his true freshman campaign.