A look at the game odds and player projections as the Horned Frogs open Big 12 play in Fort Worth
Game Odds
NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Moneyline: TCU -130; UCF +110
Spread: TCU -2
Total Points: 62.5
This line has had a wild ride this week, opening with the Horned Frogs favored by two points, swinging all the way to TCU as a 2.5-point home underdog and has now settled back with the Frogs as slight favorites. It’s clear that these teams are very evenly matched and there are wide-ranging opinions on how Saturday night’s showdown will shake out. The Horned Frogs have failed to cover in each of its two games to open the season, allowing a late field goal to Stanford in Week 1 to only earn a 7-point victory, failing to cover the 7.5-point spread and also not covering as 46.5-point favorites vs. FCS Long Island, despite keeping the Sharks off the scoreboard. UCF meanwhile easily covered in both of its wins to open the season, smashing FCS New Hampshire and Sam Houston. This one is expected to be a coin flip with perhaps the black out crowd at Amon G. Carter Stadium making the difference to tip things towards the Frogs. The total feels low for this pair of high powered offenses that have put up big numbers through two weeks, but it has actually trended down after opening 63.5; expect this conference opener to be played a bit tighter and slower paced than the free-wheeling non-conference contests played to date.
Player Projections
Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
TCU
Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 260.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 57.5
Cam Cook, Rush Yards: 76.5
Incredible value on the Frogs over at PrizePicks, with numbers I’d expect to climb as game time approaches, so jump in early. Over at DraftKings Sportsbook, Hoover is a -130 favorite to go over 270.5 passing yards, so either PrizePicks really is counting on a rough outing from the Horned Frogs QB or it will correct to the marketplace eventually. In seven of his eight starts, Hoover has gone well over this number, including the two games to open the 2024 campaign. While possible that Saturday night turns into a slowed down rock fight with the Knights, whose run game could churn the clock, the Frogs have consistently leaned on the pass game with Hoover at the helm.
Same can be said for his top target Savion Williams, who has easily cleared this figure in each game this season, albeit against competition that may be easier than what the Knights will bring on Saturday. Again, over at DK, Savion is a -135 favorite to clear 67+ yards, so one of these outlets will prove to be far off.
Cook has been a workhorse for the Frogs as the lead back this season, but even against two overmatched opponents, he’s averaging under 70 yards per game on 4.2 yards per carry. The game plan and game flow could cause the Frogs to turn to Cook as the primary driver of the offense, but this number feels about right and could see him fall just on either side.
UCF
(at time of publishing, PrizePicks has not issued UCF player projections. We’ll update when/if those come online)