A look at the game odds and player projections as the Horned Frogs Battle for the Saddle
Game Odds
NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Moneyline: TCU -225; TTU +185
Spread: TCU -6
Total Points: 66.5
TCU picked up a major road win last week, defeating Utah as 3-point underdogs to move to 2-5 on the season against the spread. Texas Tech is coming off an ugly home loss to Baylor as 4.5-point favorites to drop to 3-3-1 vs. the spread this year. The Frogs have not performed well as a projected winner this season, TCU has not only been a larger favorite three times this year, unable to cover as 7.5-point faves at Stanford and taking a brutal upset as 16.5-point home favorites, also dropping games to UCF and SMU as short favorites. The bookmakers appear to be backing the Horned Frogs regardless of what the public supporting. The game opened with TCU as just 4-point favorites, but has climbed as high as 7 before settling here at 6 or 6.5 depending on the book. This move towards TCU comes despite a reported 86% of public money coming in on the underdog Red Raiders.
The over/under point total has dropped slightly from 67.5, but 67 does not tend to be a key number, with less than 1% of games falling on that number. Both teams are 4-3 over the points total, and although both feature explosive offenses and shaky defenses, look for this rivalry game to feel more like a rock fight where at least one team struggles to generate points.
Player Projections
Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
TCU
Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 323.5
Jack Bech, Receiving Yards: 85.5
JP Richardson, Receiving Yards: 55.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 66.5
Texas Tech is second-worst nationally in pass yards allowed, averaging over 303 per game, including 500+ yards allowed to Abilene Christian and 400+ to Cincinnati and is coming off surrendering five touchdowns to Baylor’s Sawyer Robertson last week. Meanwhile, Josh Hoover ranks fifth nationally for pass yards per game. Surface level numbers make it appear to be a massive game for the TCU passing game, but with each of these projections greatly inflated from previous weeks, the game flow could result in the final tally falling below this, especially with the Frogs as strong home favorites, which can often lead to teams running out the clock to secure the victory….though we know that is a skill this particular offense has never demonstrated.
Texas Tech
Behren Morton, Pass Yards: 264.5
Caleb Douglas, Receiving Yards: 59.5
Coy Eakin, Receiving Yards: 32.5
Josh Kelly, Receiving Yards: 76.5
Tahj Brooks, Rush Yards: 125.5
Tahj Brooks is a horror film villain with an endless bloodlust to slaughter innocent helpless defenses, all you can do is hope to survive long enough to make it into the sequel. 125.5 seems like an absurd number to set, but even with a TCU defense that was improved in slowing the Utah rushing attack, it’s hard to imagine Brooks is similarly shut down on Saturday. He is both an explosive big play creator and a play-by-play grinder; both thunder & lightning. He’s getting 126 yards. As for this TTU pass game, TCU hasn’t had an opponent QB even approach this number, and while that hasn’t been a hall of fame cast slinging it on the other side, that’s where the TCU defense has been strongest. While these individual receivers may hit those yardage projections, Morton has only hit this yardage once vs. P4 foes this season, last week playing from way behind vs. Baylor.