A look at the game odds and player projections as the Horned Frogs look to earn bowl eligibility
Game Odds
NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Moneyline: TCU -395; OK ST +3100
Spread: TCU -10.5
Total Points: 68
The TCU Horned Frogs are double-digit favorites vs. an FBS opponent for just the second time this season and it didn’t go well the first time, with Houston coming to Fort Worth as 17-point underdogs and winning the game outright. TCU is just 2-7 against the spread this year, coming a three-point loss at Baylor as 2.5-point underdogs. While it’s been a lost season for the Frogs, things have been even more bleak in Stillwater. The Cowboys entered the season ranked 17th nationally in the AP Poll, but currently sit 16th in the Big 12 (that’s dead last for those counting at home). The Mike Gundy rollercoaster has hit rock bottom, winless in Big 12 play and needing to win out to reach bowl eligibility, OSU is getting smashed every week, including a 21-point home drubbing at the hands of Arizona State last week. While the Cowboys certainly have struggled, TCU has done nothing to prove it can cover a multi-score spread as a favorite and the betting public agrees with 95% of spread wagers are supporting OK State to cover. The point total over/under of 68 is the highest for any TCU or Oklahoma State game yet this season, but the squads have gone over the projected total 67% of games. With two of the worst statistical defenses in the country paired against offenses with explosive weapons, a back-and-forth shootout seems to be the most likely outcome
Player Projections
Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
TCU
Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 307.5
Jack Bech, Receiving Yards: 76.5
Drake Dabney, Receiving Yards: 17.5
Eric McAlister, Receiving Yards: 45.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 66.5
Savion Williams, Rushing Yards: 65.5
I love that PrizePicks is paying attention to the Savion RB1 hype train, but I’d be nervous jumping on this number, even as all signs point to an insane day for TCU’s rushing attack. The senior wide receiver has become the most reliable rushing option for TCU over the last three games, is averaging nearly eight yards per carry during that time, and has twice surpassed this number; on the other side of the field OSU ranks 132nd nationally in rush yards allowed and has allowed a 120+-yard rusher in all seven P4 games played this season. All that to say, look for TCU to pick up plenty on the ground by more traditional means, spreading the wealth with Cook, Payne, Sanders, Johnson, Battle, and more all getting solid work.
For the passing game, look for Hoover and Bech to smash the overs. PrizePicks dropped the Bech projection significantly as the market has cooled a bit on him over, but he’s about to have a another blow up game on Saturday. For Hoover, he just continues to crush 300-yard games in his sleep; with improved ball security he should continue to have command of this offense and run it with success. Although the Pokes are truly horrific at stopping the run, that defense is also 109th nationally in pass yards allowed per game. This one must be a massive game for the entire TCU offense.
OK State
Alan Bowman, Pass Yards: 255.5
Brennan Presley, Receiving Yards: 74.5
De’Zhaun Stribling, Receiving Yards: 41.5
Rashod Owens, Receiving Yards: 37.5
Ollie Gordon II, Rushing Yards: 89.5
If you would have told me before the season that the TCU defense would contain Ollie Gordon to under 100 yards, I’d think DC Andy Avalos must be the leading candidate for the Broyles award and also every major open job nationally. Now that TCU is among the worst P4 teams vs. the run, it seems even more ridiculous to imagine one of college football’s best players to be unable to reach even 90 yards. However this number is seen as highly unlikely in the marketplace, listed as +190 underdog to reach 90 yards on DraftKings with a consensus line suggesting juice on the under 69.5. It’s a “Demon Square” on PrizePicks, meaning you ern bonus payout if it hits, but against this TCU rush defense – which will be without injured DTs Hakeem Ajijolaiya & Markis Deal – go ahead and lock it up.
The Cowboys pass game however is getting far more respect from PrizePicks than it is from the rest of the marketplace. Bowman has only surpassed this number three times in non-OT games this season and while each of these receivers have had explosive moments it’s hard to know which will have the big game in Fort Worth, at least until you see which defensive back lines up across from each.