A look at the game odds and player projections for the Horned Frogs’ Friday night contest
Game Odds
NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Moneyline: TCU -750; Houston +525
Spread: TCU -17
Total Points: 51
The Horned Frogs finally covered a spread for the first time this season, in defeating the Kansas Jayhawks as a 1.5-point underdog last week. As the Frogs have returned to the win column so too the oddsmakers have put some faith in TCU again, setting TCU as three-score favorites at home. Houston is 2-3 against the spread this season after losing by 20 to Iowa State as a 16-point home underdog last week. There is certainly a logical path to a large TCU win in this one, returning home after its first double-digit FBS win of the year, against a far higher-rated opponent, one can visualize the blowout. However TCU has struggled with turnovers, ranking among the worst in the nation and has struggled in putting games out of reach. This could be the day TCU puts it all together, cleaning up both sides of the equation and overmatching the Cougars, but it is just as likely TCU finds itself in a Friday night fight. This point total over/under is the lowest for TCU this season, a full touchdown below the projections vs. Stanford and Kansas. The point total has been smashed in each FBS game TCU has played this year and likely should again unless Houston is held off the score board for the third straight week.
Player Projections
Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
TCU
Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 320.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 47.5
JP Richardson, Receiving Yards: 40.5
Jack Bech, Receiving Yards: 90.5
Cam Cook, Rush Yards: 53.5
While Josh Hoover and the TCU passing attack has been on fire this season, and he’s gone over his projection each week, but I’d just suggest proceeding with caution. Hoover & Bech have each taken a large leap in this weekly projection as people may see the Cougars giving up a lot of points with a lopsided spread. However, the Cougars’ pass defense has been one of its strong suits on the season, currently ranking 11th nationally with only 147 passing yards allowed per game. Some of that may be due to the opponents or because Houston has been trailing by so much that teams haven’t needed to air it out at all, and to be fair the TCU offensive coaching has shown it will continue throwing no matter the game situation, but 321 yards is a very big number. Houston held ISU QB Rocco Becht to 95 yards below his season average and Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby 135 yards under his average. It feels wrong that this Houston team would be the one to stop the Hoover hype train, but just be careful. All that said, this Savion Williams number is well below his typical projection and could be in for a solid workload from Hoover in this one.
Houston
Stacy Sneed, Rush Yards: 39.5
If Sneed ends up getting the bulk of the workload in the Cougars backfield, this number is very achievable, however UH tends to split the carries across multiple backs and with a heavy QB run usage as well. The TCU rush defense has been willing to allow yardage in chunks and Sneed could possibly hit this in a single play.