A look at the game odds and player projections as the Horned Frogs face Arizona for first time since 2003
Game Odds
NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Moneyline: TCU -375; Arizona +295
Spread: TCU -10.5
Total Points: 60
A pair of teams that have performed below expectations of fans and of the marketplace, combining to go just 5-15 against the spread for the season. Coming off a bye week, the last time we saw the Horned Frogs in action they were obliterating lowly Oklahoma State to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. Arizona is coming off a major victory of its own, needing to win out to reach bowl eligibility the Wildcats took down Houston on Friday night 27-3 to cover as a one-point home favorite. Despite having some of the scariest weapons in the conference, the Wildcats rank 15th in the Big 12 in scoring – while one would think eventually Arizona could convert those yards into points, but time is running out on their season. On first look, the points total appears far too low with two explosive offenses, two porous defenses, and a pair of Biletnikoff semifinalists battling for Big 12 WR supremacy. Even though the Horned Frogs took care of business in cruising to a cover as a double-digit favorite in its last game, the Wildcats are more than capable of pulling the upset in Amon G. Carter Stadium.
Player Projections
Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
TCU
Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 305.5
Jack Bech, Receiving Yards: 78.5
JP Richardson, Receiving Yards: 37.5
Eric McAlister, Receiving Yards: 41.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 60.5
Savion Williams, Rushing Yards: 36.5
Savion has averaged 55 rush yards over the last four games since being utilized out of the backfield coming out of the first bye despite only getting five carries for 19 yards in the last game. I’d consider that more game flow related, as TCU was handling OK State with ease, and I’m expecting this week to carry more challenges for which creative use of Williams in the run game will be deployed and he should easily surpass the projection. In the pass game, Josh Hoover continues to lead the Big 12 in passing yards while the Arizona defense allows the third most yards through the air, so it should be bombs away for TCU’s passing attack again Saturday. The disrespect to Richardson, coming off a 100 yard game, while McAlister, Williams, and even Bech are coming off lower outputs make him my favorite play, but think the Frogs will also feed Biletnikoff semifinalist Bech in this game.
Arizona
Noah Fifita, Pass Yards: 266.5
Tetairoa McMillan, Receiving Yards: 94.5
Sam Olsen, Receiving Yards: 19.5
Kedrick Reescano, Rushing Yards: 28.5
Quali Conley, Rushing Yards: 59.5
While the season hasn’t gone quite as expected for the WIldcats with Fifita & McMillan returning, but there is no denying their skills and connection together as McMillan leads the conference in receiving yards. Perhaps LaMareon James and the TCU secondary can put him in a cage, but it remains hard to imagine fully shutting him down and reaching 95 yards seems incredibly likely. On the ground, Conley & Reescano have split carries, with Conley being the boom guy, prone to massive games, which TCU has been willing to give all RBs this season. With the Frogs allowing over 172 yards per game on the ground, it’s likely both Arizona backs earn sufficient yardage in this one.