A look at the game odds and player projections as the Horned Frogs return to action in Salt Lake City
Game Odds
NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Moneyline: TCU +130; Utah -155
Spread: Utah -3
Total Points: 50
While some of the luster has worn off this matchup, there is still no love lost as the former Mountain West rivals are set to do battle in Salt Lake City again late Saturday night for the first time since 2010. That last match up was between teams ranked in the Top 5…in 2024 the teams each come in 1-2 in Big 12 play and struggling to find anything resembling that level of success. Both teams have been horrible vs. the spread, going a combined 3-9 against the marketplace number, and both lost outright as favorites in their last game. The game opened with the Utes as 7.5-point favorites, but through the week the number has taken a massive dip. Some of this may be as result of the news that Cam Rising is out for the season, but also the market has backed the Frogs all week, with a reported 74% of money wagered taking TCU plus the points to cover this spread. Even with the big line move, TCU has a big challenge ahead if it wants to go to Rice-Eccles and take a win or cover from the Utes.
The Over/Under points total has bounced all over throughout the week, reaching as high as 52 and as low as 48.5 before settling here at an even 50. 92% of the reported dollars wagered on this total are expecting a shootout in a higher scoring affair. Before its hideous performance vs. Houston, TCU games had all gone well over this point total – and even that game reached 49. With a defense that cannot stop allowing scores and an offense that cannot run the ball or run clock, if looking under in any TCU game you are probably going to have a bad time.
Player Projections
Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
TCU
Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 261.5
Jack Bech, Receiving Yards: 76.5
JP Richardson, Receiving Yards: 40.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 44.5
Cam Cook, Rush Yards: 47.5
Coming off his worst game of the season, the marketplace is suggesting Josh Hoover will follow that up with his second-worst game. This number represents a nose-dive in projections, as do all the TCU props here, but Hoover is still Top-5 nationally in pass yards per game, averaging 334.5 despite the down performance vs. Houston. For TCU to fall below all of these numbers it would need a standout defensive performance from the Utes, but Utah has been very capable of shutting down offenses, even as it has picked up a pair of losses. No best any opposing QB has performed vs. this defense this season was Utah State’s Bryson Barnes who threw for 223 yards and had five different receivers with over 30 yards, while tossing 2 TDs and 2 interceptions. It’s the kind of game you can see Hoover having here and remaining well below the 260s. However, I’d suggest Hoover has a bounce back off the bye and gets back to successfully slinging it all over the field.
Utah
Isaac Wilson, Pass Yards: 225.5
Money Parks, Receiving Yards: 35.5
Dorian Singer, Receiving Yards: 65.5
Brant Kuithe, Receiving Yards: 49.5
Micah Bernard, Rush Yards: 104.5
Although the Horned Frogs defense has performed around 100th nationally in passing EPA/play allowed, the actual yardage total has remained quite low, remaining in the Top-10 nationally with with 155.5. pass yards allowed per game. While Wilson may have gotten his feet wet with enough action backing up Rising that he shouldn’t be overly rattled as the full-time starter, he shouldn’t be needed to do much on Saturday night. If Utah is winning this game, it’s likely because Wilson was simply handing the ball to Bernard and staying out of the way. TCU’s rush defense has been atrocious through three games, 6th worst in P4 and 105th nationally at over 180 yards per game. It seems unlikely that Bernard would miss the century mark on the ground vs. TCU, but that extra few yards to get to 105 may be tough