A look at the game odds and player projections as the Horned Frogs travel to Dallas to Battle for the Iron Skillet
Game Odds
NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Moneyline: TCU -130; SMU +110
Spread: TCU -2.5
Total Points: 58.5
The Horned Frogs have failed to cover the spread this season, failing to perform to marketplace expectations thus far, a perfect 0-3 against the spread after losing outright as 2-point favorites at home vs. UCF last week. SMU is 2-1 vs. the number, also losing outright as a favorite in its last game, falling at home to BYU. This line has remained firm throughout the week, despite a reported significant volume of money and bets on the Frogs to cover the slim spread. While perhaps the public is still supporting TCU despite recent form, the bookmakers continue to maintain this one will be a tightly contested battle. The Sonny Dykes-led team has won and covered the spread in each of the last four match ups, including the Horned Frogs covering as 6.5-point favorites last season and as 2.5-point favorites in Dallas in 2022. This total has also remained firm as the two squads have combined to go 3-3 vs. the points total this season, often with numbers lower than this. If this game is to clear the over, it would likely mean that one (or both) of the defenses falls apart and the game becomes a blowout or a shootout.
Player Projections
Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
TCU
Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 310.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 65.5
JP Richardson, Receiving Yards: 47.5
Jack Bech, Receiving Yards: 68.5
Cam Cook, Rush Yards: 57.5
These numbers sure flipped in a week. The marketplace has caught on to the Hoover hype train, now favored to clear 300 passing yards as the pass game has become the only way for the Frogs to move the ball. However, in the two games of the Sonny Dykes vs. Rhett Lashlee era of this rivalry, TCU QBs haven’t approached this number, with Max Duggan throwing for 278 in 2022 and Chandler Morris going for 265 yards last season. I’d stay away from the Hoover number, although he’s been dealing, it seems to have crept too high to comfortably smash the over. The same would go for these receivers, only one TCU WR has gone for even 45+ yards vs. SMU in the last two seasons, Taye Barber’s 78 yards in 2022, and even if one were to breakout for a monster game in Dallas, choosing which one will do it is just a guessing game. Perhaps you find some juice on Richardson, being the lowest projection of the three, but he’s been held in check since his 107-yard night at Stanford.
As the passing numbers get boosted, the rushing projections take a tumble in turn. The Frogs are rushing for just 3.3 yards per carry as a team and fully abandoned the run last week in the loss to UCF, with Cam Cook only gaining 35 yards on the ground. Even against a strong SMU rush defense, with the number greatly lowered, look for Cam to cook again on Saturday and find his way to surpass 57 yards.
SMU
Jake Bailey, Receiving Yards: 39.5
Key’Shawn Smith, Receiving Yards: 34.5
Brashard Smith, Rushing Yards: 72.5
With the transition from Preston Stone to Kevin Jennings behind center, the marketplace does not quite know what to do with the SMU passing game. Jennings is absent from passing projections and these receiving yardage projections appear suppressed for a game that is expected to be back-and-forth with a high score for an offense that has traditionally been pretty high-flying. The TCU defense was destroyed by the UCF running game last week; while Brashard Smith is not RJ Harvey, he is averaging 7.2 yards per carry and has hit 70 yards in every game this season. The Horned Frog defense will find another big challenge up front and slowing the SMU rushing attack will be a main focus, but I’d lean towards Smith staying below this number as bruising back LJ Johnson gets more involved after not getting any carries in the BYU game.