A look at the game odds and player projections for the 2024 season finale
Game Odds
NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Moneyline: TCU -155; Cincinnati +130
Spread: TCU -3.5
Total Points: 58.5
The Horned Frogs put on a second straight strong performance as a big home favorite to crush the Arizona Wildcats 49-28 to cover as 10.5-point favorites last week, following a cover with the blowout win over Oklahoma State the week before. TCU has won four of five since the embarrassing loss to Houston on October 4. Cincinnati has also only covered four total game on the season, losing four straight games by double digits, failing to cover in each. The Bearcats may have a motivational advantage in this one, needing the win to reach bowl eligibility, while the Frogs have already cleared that hurdle with its path to the Big 12 Championship likely erased by game time. The marketplace has only continued to have faith in the Frogs; this game opened with TCU as a short 1.5-point favorite but has rocketed beyond the key number of 3 as 80% of the reported money wagered on the spread in this game has supported the Frogs to cover. Similarly, the market has loved the under here with 88% of wagers believing these offenses will not find much success in the cold windy day in NIppert Stadium, however TCU games have gone over the points total seven times this season, including three of the last four. While the Bearcats certainly have the best defense that the Frogs have seen in awhile, still expect both of these squads to find points in bunches to give a good shot to clear this total.
Player Projections
Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
TCU
Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 284.5
Jack Bech, Receiving Yards: 62.5
JP Richardson, Receiving Yards: 59.5
Eric McAlister, Receiving Yards: 42.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 41.5
First off, this receiving yardage projection for Savion Williams & Jack Bech is embarrassing. Yes, both are coming off statistically down games last week, with Savion gaining on 16 yards and Bech 25, but both are going to feast on the Bearcats defense on Saturday. Hoover is going to feed the pair of seniors potentially playing their last game as a Horned Frogs (assuming draft grades may suggest skipping the bowl). Hoover is going to sling it and all his pass-catchers are going to be peppered with targets. I’d be slightly concerned taking McAlister and even JPR despite recent big games from each, including consecutive 100+ yard outings from Richardson, but go ahead and roll out any of these guys and you’re probably feeling pretty good.
Cincinnati
Brendan Sorsby, Pass Yards: 223.5
Xzavier Henderson, Receiving Yards: 55.5
Tony Johnson, Receiving Yards: 56.5
Corey Kiner, Rushing Yards: 94.5
Sorsby has only gone over even 206 yards just once in his last five games, last week vs. Kansas State he could only muster 200 yards on 39 pass attempts. That said, Xzavier Henderson is a talented physical wide receiver and should be able to easily clear this yardage unless LaMareon James is matched up on him the entire game. Henderson averages 63 yards per game, but when playing in NIppert Stadium that average jumps to 71 yards; while not the challenge of Arizona’s McMillan last week, Henderson is one of the best wideouts in the Big 12 and this projection is just too low. On the ground, Kiner is a beast and doesn’t get the respect he deserves as one of the top backs in a Big 12 loaded with elite runners. Kiner hasn’t gone under 90 yards since rushing for 83 at UCF on October 12, with his last two games going for 120+. While Kiner’s projection appears high, taking on this TCU run defense should lend to another big day for the Bearcats bulldozing back.