A look at the game odds and player projections for the rivalry showdown in Waco
Game Odds
NOTE: All lines are pulled from DraftKings Sportsbook and are subject to change.
Moneyline: TCU +130; BU -155
Spread: BU -3
Total Points: 63
A series that the Horned Frogs have dominated lately, losing just once in the last decade, this rivalry has produced some of the greatest games for each program. TCU has won this game outright as favorite and an underdog, covering the spread in four of the last six match ups vs. the Bears. In 2016, TCU went to Waco as a touchdown underdog and blasted the Bears by 40 points, but the Frogs didn’t cover as two-point favorites on its last visit to McLane Stadium, winning by one point thanks to Griffin Kell’s walk-off field goal as time expired. The Bears have performed much better than TCU against the spread in 2024, going 5-3 vs. the number following a 10-point win as a TD favorite vs. Oklahoma State last week. The Frogs have been hideous against the spread, covering just twice this season after winning by a point as 5-point favorites vs. Texas Tech last week. The 2024 matchup between these old rivals looks to be another thriller on Saturday night. The Baylor offense has skyrocketed under QB Sawyer Robertson, climbing to third in scoring in the Big 12 while TCU’s Josh Hoover leads the conference (and is Top 10 nationally) in pass yardage. Even in a rivalry contest that could be a nasty slugfest, these offenses should be able to score. Look to the final margin to come from the kicking game, where the teams have combined to miss nine field goals this season; whichever placekicker converts his opportunities, that team will win the day.
Player Projections
Note: Player projections are pulled from PrizePicks and are subject to change
TCU
Josh Hoover, Pass Yards: 303.5
Jack Bech, Receiving Yards: 84.5
JP Richardson, Receiving Yards: 45.5
Savion Williams, Receiving Yards: 54.5
In last season’s 42-17 demolition of the Bears in Fort Worth, Josh Hoover was nearly perfect, completing 83% of his passes for 412 yards and two scores, distributing the ball to nine difference pass-catchers. Hoover has only gone under this projection twice this season, with his overs going way over. Perhaps this one is tentative as the teams try to keep each other at arms length and trade jabs, but that doesn’t seem to be in the DNA of these offenses this season, so could be another explosive game for the pass offense. The number that most intrigues here is JP Richardson, which has dropped by 10 yards from last week, but he continues to be a prime target for Hoover, making multiple catches per game and could be the beneficiary of added attention on Bech, Williams, and former Bear TE Drake Dabney.
BAYLOR
Sawyer Robertson, Pass Yards: 248.5
Ashtyn Hawkins, Receiving Yards: 46.5
Hal Presley, Receiving Yards: 39.5
Josh Cameron, Receiving Yards: 39.5
Michael Trigg, Receiving Yards: 27.5
Bryson Washington, Rush Yards: 62.5
Robertson has reinvigorated the offense in Waco this season, slinging at least three touchdowns in four straight games, however his yardage total has been limited, surpassing 248 yards in just three of the games. Although the TCU defense has shown some improvement over recent weeks, it is still best attacked on the ground, allowing over 166 rush yards per game. The Frogs allow the third fewest pass yards in the Big 12 – partly due to how porous it has been in the run game – but has not yet faced a QB with the passing talent of Robertson this season. If you see the game becoming a shootout, you could see Robertson and multiple receivers easily clear these projections. The number that pops is tight end Michael Trigg who has cleared this number in all but one game played this season, doing so on just a single reception last week; he is a receiving threat that will be a challenge to manage from the TCU linebackers and safeties