How The Mavericks Can Win It All
After finishing the 2023-2024 Regular Season with a 50-32 record and the 5th seed in the Western Conference, the Dallas Mavericks embarked on an epic Post Season run. They exacted revenge against their Playoff nemesis, the Los Angeles Clippers, in Round 1. In Round 2 they took out the NBA’s third best offensive team and Western Conference number 1 seed Oklahoma City Thunder. Moving on to their second Western Conference Finals in three years, the Mavs defeated the league’s best defense in the Minnesota Timberwolves. Despite returning to the NBA Finals for the first time since their 2011 Championship, the Mavs could not overcome the 64-win Boston Celtics and their league-best offense.
After falling just short of summiting the NBA mountain, expectations are high for the Mavericks this coming season. These are the three biggest factors that will contribute to the Mavericks’ chances of winning it all.
The Health Factor
Health is one of the biggest factors for any team’s success. It is of particular importance when it comes to players with a meaningful injury history, as well as heavy-minute superstars. The Mavericks have both. They field two of the most dynamic players the league has ever seen in Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, along with new addition Klay Thompson.
Doncic lead the league in scoring last season with 33.9 PPG and was second in the league in assists at 9.8 APG. Kyrie Irving added 25.6 PPG of his own while dishing 5.2 APG. Factor in another 17.9 PPG from Thompson and you have a combined level of production that is not easily replaced.
Last season in games where Doncic did not play, the Mavericks were 4-8 (33.3%). In games where Irving did not play, they were 11-13 (45.8%). Of those, there were five instances in which both players sat out the same game. The team was 0-5 (note that two of those five instances were games 81 and 82 where much of the regular rotation was resting).
The Mavericks will hope luck is on their side and the injury bug bites elsewhere. For what they can control, the coaching staff will need to be mindful of proper load management and rest. The Mavericks have historically shown prudence in this department, resting Doncic, Irving and others on the second night of back-to-backs and taking caution with minor injuries when the schedule allows. They will need to demonstrate care with newcomer Thompson, who missed the 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons entirely but bounced back in a major way by logging 77 game last season. The team is deeper in the right areas with a bit more star power to go around and should be well-poised to field a dynamic team on a nightly basis.
The Cohesion Factor
Over the course of the Off Season, the Mavericks made a number of moves to increase their chances of returning to the NBA Finals. The most notable departures include Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Green and Derrick Jones Jr., while the most notable new additions include Klay Thompson, Quentin Grimes, Naji Marshall and Spencer Dinwiddie.
Hardaway Jr. played 79 Regular Season games (12 starts) for the Mavericks last season, Green played 57 (33 starts) and Jones Jr. played 76 (66 starts). The three players were primary rotation pieces registering significant minutes on a team that went to the NBA Finals. With Thompson, Grimes, Marshall and Dinwiddie likely to absorb nearly all of the minutes the former three players accounted for, the team has turnover they need to adjust to this coming season.
Chemistry is as intangible as it is real. Look no further than the recent re-signing of Markieff Morris, a beloved locker room leader. It is also unpredictable in its development. Like experience, it can’t necessarily be taught, but rather it comes in its own time after many reps, practices, games, team outings, plane rides, failures and successes. The one thing that can be predicted about chemistry is that the sooner it comes, the better.
The Mavericks will certainly have some gelling to do. Thompson will start, while Marshall and Grimes are expected to take up much of the role left by Jones Jr. Doncic and Irving will need time to understand where Thompson’s spots are, just as Thompson will need time to tweak his mastery of screening to set himself up for success with new distributors. Likewise, Derek Lively II, Daniel Gafford, Marshall and Grimes will need time to acclimate to each other on the defensive side of the ball.
The new additions should incorporate themselves very well in relatively short order, especially with an entire training camp together. Thompson is a four-time champion who has seen it all and is hungry to add a fifth ring to his collection. Marshall and Grimes are near perfect additions to the Mavericks, both for what they bring in terms of talent, but also because they already know exactly what their respective roles are and they embrace them fully. Finally, there is Dinwiddie, who should take no time at all fitting right back in with the team he had arguably the most successful stretch of his career with. Dallas is the only team on which he shot over 40% on 3FG, while averaging his second highest PPG at 17.7. Having played 76 games with Doncic in Dallas, and 23 with Irving in their shared time in Brooklyn, Dinwiddie is particularly well suited to mesh quickly and will hopefully prove to be an important bridge between old and new, considering he is essentially both.
The X Factor
The Mavericks, like any team, will be lead by their superstars playing like superstars while the other talented players on the roster play their roles to the fullest. If one of their other players can make a leap, they may just prove to be the X Factor that helps separate the Mavericks from the rest of the pack.
Olivier-Maxence Prosper seems to be an obvious choice for X Factor. Just a year ago, it was he who was expected to crack the rotation, while fellow rookie Derek Lively II worked on his development. That script was immediately flipped with Lively playing well beyond his years while O-Max spent most of his time in the G-League. There are high hopes for O-Max as X Factor, as he proved quite capable in his G-League minutes while making meaningful strides in his overall development.
However, for me the X Factor for the Mavericks next season is Jaden Hardy. Hardy just turned 22 years old in July, but already has two years under his belt in the NBA. His rookie season saw him split time between the G-League and NBA where he saw action in 48 games, even starting 5 of them. In his sophomore campaign, he played 73 games, starting 7. He was expected to make a jump, but virtually all of his numbers were down slightly.
In the Playoffs it was something of a different story. Hardy featured in 19 of the Mavericks 22 games, with his best performance coming against the NBA’s best defense during the Western Conference Finals matchup with the Timberwolves. There he logged 52 total minutes across the five-game series, hitting 53.8% of his shots (60% on 3FG). In the Game 4 loss, he had 13 points in 12 minutes of action, shooting 5-8 including 3-4 from downtown. This was the same game where both Doncic and Irving each shot 33.3% on a combined 39 attempts. If Hardy can take the next step and give the Mavericks consistent performances, the team could be an overwhelming offensive force.
We’re only weeks away from seeing these three critical factors play out in the Mavericks’ quest for a second ring. Check back often with Mavs Moneyball where we’ll have you covered all season long.