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The Mavericks’ inefficiency is costing them games

November 2, 2024 by Mavs Moneyball

NBA: Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks
Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Early season shooting woes and lack of engagement have hurt the Mavs’ record in the early going

Through five games, the Dallas Mavericks hold a 3-2 record and the 6 Seed in the Western Conference (matching the record of the 5 Seed Houston Rockets and 7 Seed Sacramento Kings). In the early goings of the season, the Mavs took care of business against the San Antonio Spurs, had a big road win against the Minnesota Timberwolves and dispatched the Utah Jazz. They endured an unnecessary loss against the Phoenix Suns who were playing on the second night of a back-to-back and were without Bradley Beal, and basically no-showed for three quarters against the Rockets.

The team is still working out early season rotations and chemistry as would be expected after Luka Doncic and other key players missed time in the Preseason. Still, to the naked eye, the Mavs appear generally inefficient in their scoring. Somehow the lob game that was a staple of last season’s run to the NBA Finals has all but vanished. Multiple alley-oop games seem hard to come by, and despite adding one of the most lethal three-point shooters in NBA history and other players meant to hit the open shots, the team has had some poor shooting nights from top to bottom.

This early in the season, everything can seem magnified. So, the question becomes, do the numbers bear out what the optics suggest? Let’s find out (spoiler alert: they do).

Free Throw Percentage

Mavericks Average: 76.0%

League Average: 77.3%

– 1.3%

Three-Point FG Percentage

Mavericks Average: 35.8%

League Average: 35.7%

+0.1%

Two-Point FG Percentage

Mavericks Average: 49.8%

League Average: 53.4%

-3.6%

Overall FG Percentage

Mavericks Average: 44.0%

League Average: 46.0%

-2.0%

Aside from being very average from beyond the arc, the Mavericks are below league average in every other shooting category. Unsurprisingly, this is a result of the early-season struggles of some key players. The head of the snake, Luka Doncic, is shooting 38.7% overall and an awful 29.2% from three, the latter dragged into the abyss by consecutive performances of 1-for-9 and 1-for-8 from beyond the arc. While Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson are posting more favorable averages, players like P.J. Washington, Quentin Grimes and Naji Marshall have not hit the open three at an efficient pace. Washington is shooting 25.0% from three (and the free-throw line), Grimes is at 33.3% from three and Marshall has not hit a three on seven attempts. Combined, those three players are 9-for-40 on the season, for an average of 22.5%. The team’s three primary 3-and-D players need to convert at a much higher rate if this offense is going to reach its greatest heights. Had they hit even league average (35.7%) so far, they would have five more made threes on the season. It may not seem like a lot, but those shots going in during the course of a game keep the defense honest and open up opportunities for others, and that’s how a team’s overall efficiency increases.

It’s still early, and the Mavs have four games remaining on their current home stand, with their next coming tomorrow night against the Orlando Magic. The Magic will be without Paulo Banchero after an untimely oblique injury, and will hopefully come out much more engaged than they did against the Rockets. Perhaps some home cooking will get the team on track.

Filed Under: Mavericks

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